>> WE ARE LESS THAN A MONTH AWAY FROM THIS YEAR'S PRIMARY
ELECTIONS IN THE FIRST CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT RACE,
NOW, REPUBLICAN JANICE ARNOLD JONES IS RUNNING UNOPPOSED IN
THE PRIMARY BUT SIX DEMOCRATS ARE RUNNING AND THAT IS A
CROWDED FIELD.
THAT SEAT IS VACANT BECAUSE MICHELLE LUJAN GRISHAM IS
RUNNING FOR GOVERNOR.
IN CASE YOU DON'T KNOW, CD1 COVERS ALBUQUERQUE, MOST OF
BERNALILLO COUNTY AND TORRANCE COUNTY BUT IT ALSO INCLUDES
PARTS OF SANTA FE, SANDOVAL AND VALENCIA COUNTY.
IT IS A WEIRD HUGE DISTRICT.
THIS WEEK, THE LINE OPINION PANELISTS ARE READY TO TALK
ABOUT THIS RACE AND OTHER STORIES IN THE NEWS.
I AM JOINED BY LAURA SANCHEZ-RIVET, AN ATTORNEY AT
CUDDY & MCCARTHY, LLP.
GLAD SHE IS HERE.
SHE IS FEELING A LITTLE UNDER THE WEATHER.
YOU ARE A TROOPER.
NEW PANELIST, JEFFREY CANDELARIA IS WITH US.
HE'S AN ENTREPRENEUR AND OWNER OF KONNECTIONNOW,LLC.
YOU MIGHT KNOW HIM AS HOST OF THE JEFFREY CANDELARIA SHOW ON
770 KOB.
WELCOME, GLAD YOU'RE HERE.
>> FORMER STATE SENATOR, DIANE SNYDER IS WITH US AND ATTORNEY
AND REGULAR LINE PANELIST SOPHIE MARTIN IS WITH US AS
WELL.
>> ONE OF THE BIG STORIES THIS WEEK WAS AN AD RELEASED BY PAT
DAVIS DEMOCRAT.
CAN'T SAY THE WORD HE USED IN HIS AD ABOUT THE NRA --
>> WE ALL KNOW IT.
>> WE ALL KNOW WHAT THE WORD IS AND HIS SENTIMENT.
IT GOT HIM, I IMAGINE, WHAT HE NEEDED TO GET.
HE WAS ON MSNBC.
HE WAS ON FOX.
HE GOT WORKED OVER A LITTLE BIT BY TUCKER CARLSON BUT IT
IS OUT THERE.
IS THAT A GOOD LONG PLAY?
>> WHEN YOU USE THE PHRASE LONG PLAY, IT GETS
COMPLICATED.
IN THE PRIMARY, HE PROBABLY HAS A DECENT CHANCE WITH
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTER, AS OPPOSED TO THE DEMOCRATIC
GENERAL ELECTION VOTER, WHO MIGHT FIND THAT KIND OF
EXCITING.
LIKE ON HIS FACEBOOK PAGE PEOPLE SAYING, YES, AND I
THINK HE WAS SUFFERING AS A NUMBER OF THE SIX
IN THAT PACK ARE SUFFERING FROM THE FACT THAT THERE ARE
TOO MANY OF THEM.
AND, YOU KNOW, NOT FROM A STRENGTH FOR DEMOCRACY KIND OF
PERSPECTIVE BUT TRYING TO GET ATTENTION PERSPECTIVE.
SO, ON SOME LEVEL, WOW, HE DID IT AND I LOOK AT THAT AD AND I
THINK IT IS KIND OF A SUPER BOWL AD THAT PEOPLE RUN WHERE
THEY ARE LIKE, WE HOPE THAT THE NETWORK TELLS US WE CAN'T
RUN THIS AD, BECAUSE WE'LL GET MILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF
EXPOSURE ON THE INTERNET AND THROUGH THE NEWS.
THE CHALLENGE IS THIS, IF HE MAKES IT TO GENERAL ELECTION,
THAT IS A PRETTY BIG IF, AT THIS TIME, AND IF HE MAKES IT
TO GENERAL, HE IS GOING TO BE FACING THE GENERAL ELECTORATE
AT, AN THE ENTIRE DEMOCRATIC PARTY.
ALL OF THE VOTERS IN THAT PARTY ARE NOT GOING TO BE
BEHIND HIM ON EITHER THE SENTIMENT OR THE WAY HE
EXPRESSED IT.
SO IT WAS A GAMBLE.
BUT, YOU KNOW, HE'S IN A POSITION WHERE MAYBE A GAMBLE
IS WHAT HE NEEDS.
>> JEFFREY, HE MENTIONED THAT THE REASON OSTENSIBLY WAS TO
GET A CONVERSATION GOING ABOUT GUN VIOLENCE OR IS SOMETHING
ELSE BEING TALKED ABOUT?
>> HE DID THE REVERSE.
NOT JUST BECAUSE I TEND TO BE A CONSERVATIVE BUT WHEN YOU
BRING INSOLENT AS THE BASIC HALLMARK OF YOUR MESSAGE, YOU
JUST TUNE PEOPLE OUT.
BUT, THE PROBLEM WITH THE MESSAGE ALSO, I THINK, IS IT
IS NOT ONLY INSOLENT AND IMPERTINENT BUT IT IS THE
REVERSE OF WHAT HE SAYS HE IS TRYING TO DO.
IN A SECOND INTERVIEW I HEARD HIM SAY HE WANTS TO CONTINUE
THE CONVERSATION, NOT GOING TO PULL THE AD UNTIL WE HAVE A
CONVERSATION ABOUT THE NRA.
WHY WOULD I WANT TO HAVE A CONVERSATION WITH SOMEBODY
LIKE THAT WHOSE POSITIONED HIMSELF IN WHAT I CALL
MONOLITHIC, ABSOLUTISM.
HE IS SAYING, I ABSOLUTELY THE NRA, RIGHT?
HOW CAN SOMEONE THAT WE MAY ELECT FOR POLITICAL OFFICE AND
IN THE HOPES OF HAVING A FREE MARKET DISCUSSION, HAVE EVEN
ANY SENSE THAT HE IS WILLING TO HAVE A DISCUSSION WHEN HE
BASICALLY SAID, I AM ABSOLUTELY AGAINST EVERYTHING
THEY STAND FOR.
SO, THERE IS NO REDEEMING ASPECT TO THE NRA.
IT IS A COMPLICATED WORLD.
THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS NRA REPRESENTING ONE MONOLITHIC
ABSOLUTE.
>> THAT IS PROVEN BY OUR SENATOR MARTIN HEINRICH, LONG
TIME NRA MEMBER.
WHAT DID YOU MAKE OF THE AD?
I WANT TO GET YOUR SENSE OF THIS AS WELL.
>> SEVERAL THINGS.
ONE IS, I THINK A LONG WITH WHAT JEFFREY WAS SAYING, IS
WHEN YOU SAY THAT TO WHATEVER THE WORD HE USED, THE NRA, THE
NRA, IN SPITE OF MANY THINGS THAT WE DON'T AGREE WITH, IS
AN ADVOCATE FOR THE SECOND AMENDMENT.
THERE ARE MANY PEOPLE ON BOTH SIDES WHO ARE ADVOCATES FOR
THE SECOND AMENDMENT.
IT IS A MODIFICATION OF THAT AND HOW IT IS BEING
IMPLEMENTED THAT IS THE ISSUE.
AS A FORMER LEGISLATOR AND A CANDIDATE MANY TIMES, I FOUND
IT SO OFFENSIVE.
I DON'T -- THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO -- IN MY OPINION --
LEGITIMATE REASON FOR DOING AND USING VOCABULARY LIKE
THAT.
YOU'RE ADS ARE ON -- HIS ADS ARE ON IN EARLY
EVENING AND CHILDREN ARE STILL WATCHING TV AND WE TRY TO AT
LEAST GET THEM TO NOT USE THOSE WORDS.
I THINK ALSO AS PREVIOUSLY HAS BEEN MENTIONED, HE GOT EXACTLY
THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT HE WAS TRYING TO DO.
I USED TO TEACH LOBBYING CLASSES, ADVOCACY CLASSES,
BEFORE I BECAME A LEGISLATOR AND ONE OF THE THINGS I USED
AS AN EXAMPLE, DO NOT HIT A LEGISLATOR UP ALONGSIDE HIS
HEAD WITH A 2 BY 4 TODAY AND GO BACK TOMORROW AND EXPECT
THAT THEY WILL SIT DOWN AND TALK WITH YOU OR SUPPORT YOUR
ISSUES.
I DON'T THINK ANYBODY FROM THE NRA ORGANIZATION -- I DON'T
THINK OLLIE NORTH IS GOING TO SIT DOWN WITH PAT AND DISCUSS
CHANGES IN POSITIONS IN THE NRA.
SO, IT IS NOT A DISCUSSION ABOUT CHANGE.
IT IS A DISCUSSION ABOUT GETTING MORE MEDIA COVERAGE
WHICH IS MY THING, WHICH IT HAS DONE.
>> THAT IS RIGHT.
ONE CAN MAKE THE ARGUMENT PAT IS APPEALING TO NATURAL
CONSTITUENCY, PRETTY PROGRESSIVE, HAS ALWAYS BEEN,
HAS THAT CONSTITUENCY BEHIND HIM.
BUT MY QUESTION, WE ARE ALL TALKING ABOUT HERE, DOES IT
PLAY OUTSIDE THAT CONSTITUENCY?
WHAT DOES IT DO FOR HIM WHEN IT IS GO TIME ON ELECTION DAY?
IS IT GOING TO CARRY HIM SOMEWHERE?
>> I THINK YOU'RE RIGHT THAT IT PLAYED TO HIS CONSTITUENCY
IN PARTICULAR.
IT WAS INTENDED TO GENERATE SOME MEDIA ATTENTION.
I THINK IT WAS SUCCESSFUL IN DOING THAT BUT WHETHER HE IS
ACTUALLY ABLE TO PULL PEOPLE FROM THE OTHERS IS DEBATABLE.
IT IS A CROWDED RACE.
THERE IS AT LEAST TWO PEOPLE IN THE RACE THAT -- THERE WERE
FOUR PEOPLE THAT DIDN'T EVEN MAKE THE THRESHOLD FOR THE
PREPRIMARY CONVENTION, ONLY TWO THAT DID, AND PAT HAD TO
GO BACK AND GET ADDITIONAL SIGNATURES.
UNFORTUNATELY WE ARE NOW IN A SITUATION WHERE PEOPLE ARE
SPENDING MONEY, THERE IS INDEPENDENT EXPENDITURE
CAMPAIGNS SPENDING MONEY FOR THE CANDIDATES, SO YOU SORT OF
FORGET WHAT HAPPENED IN MARCH IN TERMS OF BEING ABLE TO HAVE
AN ORGANIZATION TO GET AS MANY VOTES AS YOU NEEDED TO PASS
THAT THRESHOLD.
NOW IT IS ALL ABOUT THE MEDIA HITS.
THERE IS MAXIM OF GETTING AT LEAST SEVEN HITS NOR EVERY
VOTER, HIT THAT VOTER WITH SOMETHING.
WHAT IS INTERESTING, AS A REGISTERED VOTER IN THE
DISTRICT I HAVE YET TO GET ANY MAIL FROM PAT.
I HAVE GOTTEN A LOT OF MAIL FROM THE OTHER CANDIDATES.
IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THEY ARE TARGETING THEIR MAIL
OR WHETHER THEY ARE CHOOSING TO DO MORE MEDIA THAN TARGETED
MAIL.
EVERYBODY HAS A STRATEGY FOR THAT.
IN A RACE LIKE THIS IT IS AN ATTEMPT TO GET AS MUCH MEDIA
AS YOU CAN AND WE'LL SEE SOME OF THIS CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW WEEKS.
I DON'T KNOW THAT IT IS GOING TO DO A LOT TO MOVE PEOPLE TO
HIS CAMP.
>> A DESPERATE ATTEMPT TO GARNER MEDIA, WHICH HE DID,
AND ATTENTION ALL OVER THE COUNTRY.
TUCKER CARLSON EVEN THE OTHER NIGHT, HE AMBUSHED HIM.
GARNERING ALL THIS ATTENTION, HE ACTUALLY PAINTED HIMSELF
INTO A CORNER AND I THINK HE ACTUALLY SHUT DOWN
CONVERSATIONS BY OPENING UP WITH THAT INSOLENT TOPIC.
WHEN HE SAYS THAT HE WANTS TO HAVE A CONVERSATION ONCE AGAIN
ABOUT THE NRA, YOU PAINT YOURSELF IN A CORNER, HOW CAN
YOU HAVE AN DIALOGUE?
>> I DON'T KNOW THAT IT IS GENERATIONAL.
I GREW UP IN A GENERATION WITH F THE POLICE, A MAJOR WRAP
SONG.
>> PART OF THE LEXICON.
>> VERY MUCH, SO, AFTER THAT, I THINK, F THE NRA IS A LOT
LESS IMPACTFUL FOR THAT GENERATION, BECAUSE WE HAVE
HEARD THAT LANGUAGE ABOUT OUR INSTITUTION.
>> LET ME ASK YOU A QUESTION.
SORRY JEFFREY.
WHAT DO YOU THINK MADE THIS RACE SO HOT THIS YEAR, THIS
CONGRESSIONAL RACE FOR DEMOCRATS.
DID IT JUST SEEM THAT OPEN REALLY?
>> OKAY.
>> OPEN DISTRICT.
>> BUT, I HEAR ALL THIS OPEN, BUT THERE IS A SORT OF A CALL
THAT HAPPENS FOR CERTAIN PEOPLE LIKE YOU MENTIONED.
YOU'RE NOT GOING TO BE ABLE TO MAKE THE THRESHOLD, YET YOU
HAVE ALREADY DONE A LOT OF WORK.
>> IS IT A CALL OR IS IT EGO?
I HAVE NO DOUBT THAT AT SOME LEVEL ALL OF THEM BELIEVE
THERE IS A CALLING BUT YOU ALSO NEED TO HAVE A LOT OF
SELF CONFIDENCE TO WITHSTAND A RACE LIKE THIS.
AND THERE IS A LOT OF PEOPLE AND UNFORTUNATELY IN A
CAMPAIGN YOU SURROUND YOURSELF BY SUPPORTERS, PEOPLE WHO ARE
WORKING FOR YOU, SO NOBODY IS TELLING YOU, HEY, YOU SHOULD
RETHINK THIS.
A LOT OF PEOPLE HANG ON FOR AS LONG AS THEY CAN.
FOR ME, IT IS SOMEBODY WHO HAS HAD A RECORD OF RUNNING IS IN
A BETTER POSITION TO RUN FOR ANOTHER OFFICE.
THERE IS PEOPLE IN THIS RACE THAT HAVE NEVER RUN FOR
ANYTHING.
THERE IS, I THINK, A LITTLE BIT OF THE TRUMP FACTOR, THE
FACT THAT ARE A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE UPSET ABOUT 2016.
YOU'RE SEEING A LOT OF OTHER SPECIAL ELECTIONS GOING
AGAINST TRUMP SO DEMOCRATS ARE VERY MUCH WANTING TO JUMP IN,
NEW BLOOD, NEW VOICES, AND ALL THAT IS GOOD FOR DEMOCRACY BUT
I DON'T THINK THAT IS NEW TO NEW MEXICO.
IF YOU LOOK AT 2008 WHEN DOMENICI WAS NO LONGER
RUNNING, WE HAD AN OPEN SENATE SEAT.
PEOPLE JUMPED INTO THAT AND THE CONGRESSIONAL SEAT.
AT ONE POINT WE HAD 14 DIFFERENT FEDERAL RACES,
CAMPAIGNS HAPPENING HERE IN NEW MEXICO.
SO, I DON'T THINK THIS IS NEW TO NEW MEXICO.
WE HAVE THIS PROBLEM ALL THE TIME.
>> IT IS NOT A PROBLEM.
>> HEAR YOU.
IT IS INTERESTING, THOUGH.
>> I THINK THEY ALSO THINK BECAUSE OF THE DYNAMICS AND
STATISTICS OF THE DISTRICT IS I THINK MANY OF THEM TRULY
BELIEVE THAT WHOEVER WINS THE PRIMARY IS GOING TO BE THE
NEXT -- >> DO YOU DOUBT THAT?
>> YES, I DO.
>> I WOULD BE VERY SURPRISED.
>> BUT, SURPRISES HAVE HAPPENED.
MR.
TRUMP IS NOW PRESIDENT.
>> I THINK, THOUGH -- >> HANG ON.
WE HAVE HAD PLENTY OF REPUBLICANS REPRESENT THIS CD1
DISTRICT A LOT OF REPUBLICANS SINCE 1962, FOR GOSH SAKE.
>> I DON'T THINK IT IS IMPOSSIBLE.
DO I THINK IT IS A CHALLENGE?
YES.
BUT BACK TO THE POINT IS I THINK THE DEMOCRATS THINK IT
IS A GIVEN.
SO THAT IS WHY YOU HAVE GOT SO MANY CANDIDATES CHALLENGING
AND RUNNING AND WILLING TO SPEND MONEY AND THEIR TIME AND
EFFORT AND THEY ARE DESPERATE TO BE THAT CANDIDATE.
>> ANY WILD CARDS OUT THERE?
GO AHEAD.
>> I THINK THAT IS DANGEROUS.
I THINK -- I DON'T THINK THE DEMOCRATS JUST THINK THAT IT
IS OURS.
WHEN YOU DO THAT, THINGS LIKE THE ELECTION IN 2010 HAPPEN,
WHERE EVERYBODY ASSUMED THAT IT WAS DIANE DENISH'S AND
SUSANA MARTINEZ RAN AWAY WITH IT.
SO I THINK IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOT TAKE THE VOTERS FOR
GRANTED AND I THINK THIS DISTRICT, TO YOUR POINT ABOUT
THE LONG TIME HISTORY OF OTHER REPUBLICANS, CERTAINLY HEATHER
WILSON, IT IS THOSE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS IN THE DISTRICT
THAT HAPPEN AND A LOT MORE INDEPENDENTS.
SO, WHAT IS INTERESTING IS THAT FOR THE PRIMARY YOU SEE
PEOPLE RUNNING TOWARDS THE POLES, RUNNING TOWARDS THE
EXTREMES, TO GARNER THEIR VOTES IN THE PRIMARY, TEND TO
BE STAUNCH DEMOCRATS OR REPUBLICANS, AND THE
INDEPENDENTS DON'T HAVE ANY VOTE WHATSOEVER.
AND THEN YOU SEE ALL THE PEOPLE IN THE GENERAL AND I DO
THINK THERE IS IMPACTS OF THAT.
AND SO THOSE WHO END UP DOING THINGS MUCH MORE EXTREME HAVE
TO BACK PEDAL FOR THE GENERAL AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO DO
THAT.
>> MEANWHILE JANICE ARNOLD JONES IS WATCHING THIS ALL
GOING, OKAY -- >> JANICE ARNOLD JONES IS
GOING TO CONGRESS, SO -- >> CAN I COME BACK TO A POINT
THAT SOPHIE.
>> 20 SECONDS.
>> JUST BECAUSE SOMETHING IS PART OF A LEXICON, WE SHOULD
HOLD PEOPLE WE ELECT TO A HIGHER STANDARD.
>> WELL, THAT IS A GOOD POINT THERE TOO.
THAT IS FAIR POINT.
>> NOW, WHEN WE COME BACK TO THE LINE WE WILL LOOK AT
EFFECTS OF STABLE HOUSING ON CHILD WELL-BEING HERE IN NEW
MEXICO.
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