Saturday, October 20, 2018

Youtube daily report Oct 20 2018

How ancient is your soul? Pick one old spirit personality test | Guess who you are quiz

What soul age are you? How old is your soul spirit?

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Nightcore「Lyrics」→ Kiss and Make Up (Dua Lipa & BLACKPINK) - Duration: 2:45.

Nightcore「Lyrics」→ Kiss and Make Up (Dua Lipa & BLACKPINK)

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Ronald Reagan's Eldest Son Sends Urgent Midterm Message to Republicans - Duration: 4:43.

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"The Future of the Grid: Policy, Technology, and Market Change" by Casey Canfield [PWLConf 2018] - Duration: 51:40.

So I'm gonna be talking about the future of the grid policy technology and market changes

So it's an incredibly exciting time to be talking about the changing electricity grid and so as

There's a huge amount of change going on as we try to do this transition from all of this

20th century aging infrastructure to try and meet our 21st century demands and

So obviously this type of change is going to create conflict, you know

People are not gonna agree about which way to go forward and so some places

Have like cities states counties. They've made hundred percent renewable energy goals

These are really trying to get at these sustainability and climate change issues

There's other places like Puerto Rico the Carolinas just recently where they're really focused on

Resiliency and just trying to figure out how can we keep the lights on in the face of all these increased extreme weather events?

and

then there's the utilities the

Utilities are just trying to figure out how they can keep operating how their business model can stay relevant

And so the utility death spiral is something that comes up a lot in these conversations

And so the utility death spiral is basically the whole concept that

As more and more people are adopting solar and storage and these types of distributed technologies

They're gonna defect from the grid

And so then there's gonna be less people who are getting electricity from their utility

And so then the utility doesn't have as many people to spread those costs across so that's going to increase the cost of electricity

coming from the utility and more people are gonna defect and this is just going to go on and on until the utility just

you know collapses into a death spiral and

so

what I want to talk to you about is kind of what's going on with the grid today on what are

Driving some of these changes and how are we going to navigate this?

So a big question here is going to be

How like we have the what's going on today? I'm going to talk about one potential future a spoiler alert

It's gonna involve blockchain

But then the question that I'm really interested in is

How do we navigate this like what types of analysis do we need for the regulators? And the

policymakers and utilities who are the ones who are making these decisions and trying to figure out what should we invest in now and what's

gonna be relevant in the future and then I want to leave you with a couple thoughts about

How you fit in and where you might be able to to participate in this?

So

generally electricity is generated at these big power plants and

gets

Shoved on to the transmission grid and so the transmission grid is designed to be able to transport electricity over

Really long distances and so because of that it's at a really high voltage and so it'll be at like a hundred seven hundred

kilovolts, and so then it goes through a transformer and this steps down the voltage and so when you gets closer to your house

It's actually

Steps down to be part of the distribution grid and so the distribution grid is at a lower voltage

Is it like 10 kilovolts?

And then when it gets even closer to your house, it actually gets stepped down to the 120 volts

Which is what we actually use for a regular electricity

And

so

this on this map of the transmission grid

You'll see that there's some like gray and purple lines. Those are on the lower end of the voltage. So that's around a hundred kilovolts

But then the red and the hot pink that's on the higher end of the voltage

and so that's they're going to be around three hundred five hundred kilovolts and

so

This system first started coming online online in the 1880s

So the very first transmission line was installed in 1889 in

Oregon and so was actually from

The Willamette Falls in Oregon City, Oregon to downtown Portland, Oregon, it was only 13 miles and so by

1914 there were 55 transmission lines around the u.s

in

1936 we passed the rural electrification act. And so that was to create these

low-interest federal loans so that we could actually pay for

distribution grids to be built in rural areas

And nowadays that same laws actually being used for rural broadband

So that gives you a sense of our how our ideas about basic needs have changed over time

And

So the entire grid is interconnected

But it's also separated into three main parts

And so there's the Western interconnection the eastern interconnection and the Texas interconnection. So, Texas. Yes

Yeah, you don't mess with, Texas

and

So these regions are managed separately and within each region. We have several different balancing authorities

And so these balancing authorities are responsible

For balancing the demand and supply and the electrical grid at every single moment

And so right now we don't really have very much storage on the grid, which would you know make this a lot easier?

and so

Operators have to be paying attention at every moment

forecasting what electricity usage is going to be in the future to make sure that the supply and demand are

Perfectly balanced in order to avoid a blackout scenario

But of course this doesn't always work out the way we might hope

Blackouts are still a very frequent problem. And so does anyone remember the Northeast blackout of 2003?

It was a major major blackout. It was also a really really great example of a cascading failure and

so basically what happened is that it was a really hot August day and

He makes transmission lines sag

and so a transmission line in Ohio touched a tree and it caused the current to briefly increase and

This caused the protective automatic equipment to automatically shut off the line

So then all of the electricity that had been going down that transmission line needed to find someplace else to go

and that caused other lines to get overloaded and then they tripped off and so normally

This is a totally manageable problem. The operator pushes a few buttons. They make a couple phone calls

Everything's balanced again

however in this particular situation

First energy who was in charge of that first transmission line

It turned out that is you might remember from earlier in the morning

They had a computer that had a software bug a race condition. And so what what ended up happening?

Was that that computer was frozen for about an hour before anyone noticed and because of that no one heard or saw any

Alarms suggesting that everything was going horribly horribly wrong. And so they didn't intervene

they didn't do anything and

so ultimately this blackout affected 10,000,000 people in Ontario and

45 million people in eight US states

So all of New York City lost power took two days to two weeks to get the power back on

Amtrak stopped running cell phone stopped working water systems lost pressure

So obviously this was an incredibly expensive accident

Estimates put it at six billion dollars. And the reason I'm telling you this story is because

reliability is the most

important thing that a utility does and

so often if you are talking to someone who works at a utility and you have some crazy new idea of how you're going to

Just revolutionize the whole system. They just need to completely reorganize. No big deal

the first thing that they're gonna tell you is I

Don't know. I'm really worried that that's gonna impact reliability

Because utilities are not going to do anything that impacts reliability and they shouldn't having reliable

Electricity is critical for our economy and for Public Health

So I've talked a little bit about how the electricity grids operated give you a sense of that

And so now I want to talk a little bit about the market

regulatory and policy parts and

so

as indicated on this slide

states are generally separated into regulated and restructured markets and so in the white states like

Washington and Missouri

You'll find that we have regulated gas and electricity markets. And so generally what this means is that there's a public

There's a Public Utility Commission and

They're responsible for overseeing a utility who's a monopoly that operates in a specific region

and so if that utility wants to

invest in more infrastructure, if they want to change the electricity prices, they have to go and get permission from that regulator and

So in this context you'll generally find

Vertically integrated utilities so they own both the generation equipment as well as all the wires

you'll also find smaller utilities - like

Municipal utilities where they're owned and operated by the city government

Also coops. So those are typically in rural areas and they operate within not-for-profit business model and

so the blue states are

deregulated or restructured and so

Deregulated is kind of a misnomer because there's actually still a lot of regulation. There's still a Public Utility Commission

but what this generally means is that they're operated with market principles and

So in the dark blue states like Texas and Oregon, that's where they have

Deregulated or restructured electricity markets then the light blue states

like Florida that's where they've only deregulated their gas markets and then the stripy ones are where we've

deregulated both the gas and the electricity markets and

so in these states what happens is that there's an energy market to allocate resources and different companies own the

Generation and the wires so that no one has a conflict of interest. And so this is something this rewrite

Deregulated and restructured markets are still pretty controversial

so for example

There's lots of discussions right now about how do a hundred percent renewable energy policy fit into a market structure

Um, the problem here is that you can't just use a carbon price

because these

Renewable energy policies are not technology neutral

So if you have a carbon price what's more than likely to happen is that you'll increase natural gas generation, maybe nuclear generation. Um

But you won't necessarily

Drive solar and wind adoption the way that the law is really intending

So then the question is okay, but carbon price isn't going to work. What are we supposed to do?

Should we have separate markets for renewables should weari regulate?

I mean, this is a serious conversation that people are having there's lots of

Uncertainty about where we're gonna move forward

So just to give you one example on the policy side

I'm gonna talk about how net excess generation

So basically if you have solar panels on your roof and you produce more electricity than you use that's excess

generation and the way that that gets compensated differs depending on what state you live in and so in

the dark blue states like, California

the excess generation is

Compensated at the retail rate. So basically this means that if you are

Generating more electricity than you use your electricity meters actually going to run backwards

And so that's awesome. If you really want to encourage people to adopt solar it makes the economics awesome

But the negative side is that it makes the utilities job a lot harder

Because the entire electrical grid is designed so that utilities put power on and customers take power off

It's a one-way flow. And so with solar power we're completely changing that whole paradigm

so now

customers can inject power into the grid and

At the same time the utility is still responsible for reliability

they're still responsible for making sure that everything is perfectly balanced that whole time and there is still a cost associated with that and

so at the like middle blue states

So for example, Maine

What they do is they and say at the retail rate at first

For some of the generation and then they switch to a lower rate

at the light blue like, Missouri

They only will credit it at a lower rate. Typically, it's the avoided cost rate or the wholesale rate

and so this is basically what the utility would have paid for that generation and the idea here is that

It's actually

Accounting for a little bit of the cost that the utility is incurring because there's still the backup generation for that home

So even if you are putting electricity into the grid at any moment

Your solar panels for example might stop working and you would need electricity and the utility is there to make sure that you get it

and

Then in the white states like Texas, they are sorry in the stripe ones

Which Oklahoma is the one example here?

They actually have no obligation to compensate excess generation

And then in the white states like Texas, they don't have any statewide rules

obligating them to compensate or not compensate generation and

so the main point I wanted to make here is that

When you're trying to figure out the economics of solar, it's not necessarily just about how sunny your roof is

There's going to be different market and policy conditions that affect the economics of it and this varies depending on what state you're in

And

so I've talked a little bit about how the electricity is operated today and how there's this really complex interplay between

Technology, the market is the regulatory environment and policy

however, I also mentioned that everything's changing and

So there's three trends that are really shifting the industry. So that's

decentralization

electrification and

Digitalization, so I'm going to go into a little bit more detail about each of these

So

Decentralization the whole idea is that we're shifting from this really centralized system where you have these big power plants

They're distributing all the electricity to a decentralized system. Where?

anyone can go and buy some solar panels and be injecting power into the grid and

So the main technologies that are involved here are distributed generation. So typically solar panels

Distribute its storage, but then also using less electricity

Matters here. So negawatts is typically the term a phrase so energy efficiency and demand response and

so

So and so these different technologies create problems as well as opportunities

So for example with solar panels

one of the complaints that utilities often have is that there's this thing called the duct curve and

So it's called a duct curve because people think it looks like a duck. So if you see the duck

Yeah, it looks like a duck and so the idea here is that when you have this sharp drop in

Electricity usage that's really hard for utilities to deal with these big power plants like coal and nuclear

they they can't change the electricity output that quickly and

So that's why there's been a big resurgence and why it's been really valuable to have big resurgence in natural gas

Because that has a much better ramping capability

And so that's why people are getting really excited about storage and so storage

Has the potential to address the duck curve and so storage

By being able to absorb some of that electricity can flatten the peaks and valleys. And so what this means is that

utilities are super happy because it actually makes the electricity much more predictable or that electricity demand much more predictable and

Utilities like things that are predictable it makes their job really easy

But then there's also energy efficiencies the idea here is to reduce the overall demand

And so this reduced the number of power plants that utilities need to build

And then there's demand response. And so this is typically a very targeted

Effort and so for example when during a peak demand crisis, so for example, it's a hot summer day

Everyone's got their air conditioning running and the utilities having trouble supplying all of that electricity

They'll use Adam Anderson program to get people to reduce their electricity usage so that they can keep the supply and demand

perfectly balanced

And

so in each of these cases customers are making decisions about

Whether or not to implement these technologies and utilities may or may not be involved in that decision

And so it's become really clear utilities that they need to be a lot more involved in

Customer decision-making and being able to coordinate across customers

So the next big trend is

electrification and so in this graph on the Left this is talking about how the cost of lithium-ion

batteries has been dropping and is projected to continue to drop and

so this is making storage a lot more of a realistic option and

So in the graph on the right?

You can see that electric vehicles are projected to be an increasing percentage of new car sales and so by 2040

It's almost 40 percent of new car sales

and so this creates a lot of really exciting opportunities and so for example instead of having

homeowners buy a separate storage a

Stationary battery storage for their house. Maybe they can just use their car that they already have

You know in this future where everyone has electric cars

You know, maybe we can provide grid reliability

services

Buying or stopping the charging of electric vehicles

Based on what's happening on the grid and what's going to provide the most benefit, you know?

Maybe if we really think far into the future if we have autonomous vehicles, maybe while you're at work

you're autonomous electric vehicle can go drive to a part of the grid that needs some support and

Provide services there and make money while you're at work

You know sky's limit

There's all kinds of crazy things

But the idea here really is that

Electrification is really changing the boundaries of what matters for grid operations. It's

so

Utilities worry about people using less electricity because it affects their bottom line

But also it affects their degrees of freedom for being able to address grid reliability

so electrification

increases those degrees of freedom

And the last big trend is

digitalization and so the idea here is that we have all these smart sensors and

Automatic control systems and all this date big data being collected

that we can use to optimize the system and so

For example, there's some utilities who when there's a blackout. They have no idea how big it is

They have no visibility into their system and that's why you have to call them on the phone and tell them hey

I don't have electricity because they don't know and so there's been a big push to have advanced metering infrastructure or am I on?

Smart meters on this. It's been a big part of pushing the smart grid in the last 10 years

And so what this does is this gives utilities a lot more visibility into the system so that they know how much electricity

individual houses are using and so this also means the utilities are collecting huge amounts of data about how

Much electricity homes are using and most utilities don't even have the capacity to deal with any of that data

Like they don't have a data scientist, you know, they're barely able to just store all that data

So there's a lot of opportunity to be able to better leverage that that's not happening right now

This also includes on technology like smart inverters. So smart inverters are

basically a piece of electronics that

interfaces between a solar panel and the grid so we can imagine that some point we'll have these smart inverters where

They can actually sense the grid conditions and when they're injecting power

They can change what they're injecting based on the conditions of the grid to increase grid reliability

And so that's actually how we get to some of these ideas about having a self-healing grid

And so of course

All of this very exciting, but what people worry about is the cybersecurity implications

and so there's already

Cybersecurity risks at utilities and this is only going to increase them

And so there's a lot of work being done for example to increase information sharing across utilities

So that they're better able to identify attacks sooner in

some ways you might think that oh

This might be an argument for why we should have more distributed energy generation

because if the system's more resilient then that means

We won't be

The impact of a cyber attack won't be as bad. And so then it won't matter

of course that assumes that

The smart inverter which is a critical piece of a distributed energy system is not the actual attack vector

So there's still a lot of things to get figured out

So I've talked a little bit about the grid today and hope I've

Sort of explained how it's a pretty complex system right now, and it's only gonna get more and more

Complicated as we move into the future

And so now I want to talk about just one example future that we could be headed towards

So everyone close your eyes

close your eyes and

So let's imagine a future where you just bought a house in a new up-and-coming neighborhood

The house already has solar panels and a built in home energy management system

Which you're well aware of because it made it one of the more

Desirable houses on the market and you definitely paid a premium for it

You pull your electric car into the garage and it starts wirelessly charging based on your settings to minimize cost

You start plugging in all of your Internet of Things devices

Of course, they won't talk to the home energy management system right away. You didn't die and go to heaven. This is the real world

You spend a couple hours debugging it

And now the management system can control your fridge your air conditioner your dryer a couple other

appliances based on the real time price signals coming from the grid

You check your mail and you have a welcome to the neighborhood block chain letter. That's right your cool

You have a neighborhood micro-grid with a peer-to-peer market so you can open your eyes

So let's explore that a little bit. Like what does that mean to have a neighborhood blockchain?

And

so

Decentralization electrification and digitalization aren't just changing the technology of the grid

it's also forcing people to completely rethink how the market and policy environment is and

So one of the more interesting departures is these block chain based micro grids or more broadly

We can think of them as local energy markets

and so the idea here is that there are consumers who are homes without any generation and then there's

prosumers who are consumers who are producing electricity and

There's some sort of market mechanism that manages the flow of information about energy

transactions as well as the financial transactions and so

There's a lot of interest in the potential of blockchain to be that market mechanism

The idea is that this could reduce the administrative cost of transacting at this scale

Assuming we get a couple minor issues like the computational cost of blockchain figured out

but that hasn't stopped people from using it and

So just in case you're like the one person who doesn't know blockchain is I'm gonna do a quick quick review

So the idea is that there's a participant who is in the network and they want to request a transaction of some sort

And so that request is broadcast to the other computers in the network and then each computer has two independent

Independently validate or authenticate that the request is valid then once it gets verified

You can produce a new block of data that data is added that block is added to the blockchain permanently and you've done it

And so it's anyone here from Brooklyn

Have you heard have you heard if the brooklyn micro grid?

Okay, it's not totally surprising I guess so I don't have any like special insider information about the Brooklyn micro grid

My understanding is that's a pretty small project. It's run out of the lo3 energy

They're a start-up and so my understanding is that there's only a couple people who are transacting on it

They have these big ambitions to do real-time pricing and they haven't quite gotten there yet

But it's kind of exciting that, you know people in the US, you know, not not just in Europe

Are actually testing

using

blockchain for a local energy market on a micro grid here

And

so

Generally the idea is that you have to separate the virtual and physical layers

And so the virtual layer is the blockchain part

so all of the market and pricing information is added to the blockchain on one block at a time and

Transmitted to all of the other homes on the network

however, in order for this to work you need to also be able to

Transfer the electricity. You cannot transfer electricity with blockchain

So for this part just to be clear

And so for this part, they actually have to take advantage of the distribution network

and so in this case, they're working with their local utility ComEd and ComEd is

Facilitating this transaction because they're the ones who actually own the wires

And so what this means is that if you're trying to buy renewable energy from the neighborhood

blockchain in the Brooklyn micro grid

You're not guaranteed

To get electrons that came from solar panels. That's not how the grid works. You can't control where the electrons go

so what you're really paying for is for someone to generate electricity from a solar panel and put that onto the grid and

Then you take electricity at that same time

and so as more and more homes get solar power in your micro grid the

Probability of the electrons you personally receive being from solar power increases so over time you'll get there

But there's no guarantee

and

So how exactly does this transaction work?

So the idea is that you have consumers who are the indicated by a see those are the people who need to buy electricity

and then you have the prosumers who are

Designated by a P and they're the ones who are producing electricity. And so

Typically, you'd have an automatic system that does this but basically each consumer needs to put in an order for how much electricity

They want to buy in the next fifteen minute interval. And then what's the maximum price that they're willing to pay?

then each prosumer needs to put in an order saying how much electricity they're willing to sell in the next fifteen minute interval and

What's the minimum price that they're willing to accept?

Then

Whoever said they were willing to pay the most for the electricity they get their electricity needs allocated first

and so once

they get their electricity needs and you go the next person the next person the next person and then the last person who gets

Electricity allocated to them based on how much is available?

That's the market clearing price. And so that's the price that everyone pays and

so

This is actually really really similar to how energy markets work at a regional scale in general

and

So one of the main barriers here is that there's actually no legal or regulatory

structure for this sort of hyperlocal

transaction and so this is one of the major things that the Brooklyn micro grid is really trying to figure out like what should the

Rules be like what license do they need like whose permission do they need?

They're really trying to figure out some of these questions and so it's it's kind of exciting to see where this goes

So I encourage you to follow the Brooklyn micro. Grid see where they go

But of course not everything is super shiny and wonderful

There's definitely a lot of people who have some serious concerns about using blockchain for energy transactions

There's concerns about the electricity usage the computational costs that maybe this is going to wipe out

The cost savings you get from the reduced transaction costs. Maybe this is going to be too complicated for your average consumer

There's concerns about security and privacy

You know how much information do you want your neighbors to have about how much electricity you're using?

What if a company had that information does that change things?

So there's still a lot of open questions and technical questions that I'm very confident, you know, people will sort out over time

And so a bigger question

that's much harder to answer is is this the best idea like is this where we should be going with our

electricity system

And

So I want to talk a little bit about that about

These are some of my personal

Research interests about how do we figure out today how to set ourselves up for the best future?

And so

We've really only discussed one potential future in one

Regulatory and policy environment. And as you may recall the rules are really different depending on what state you live in and

So depending on where you are the rules about how the electricity grids

Operated who can participate and how they participate or going to be really different

And so there's not going to be a one-size-fits-all solution, you know

Not everyone is going to think a blockchain based micro grid is right for me

And so for example like thinking about some of these equity questions

You know

There might be people who can't afford the capital costs of these home energy management systems that they then also need to program

That's a lot of work

Setting up all your settings in what you want it to do

They might want to just know what their electricity bill is going to be and not have to worry about any fluctuation from markets

and so we need to make sure that

Low and middle income households in particular are able to engage in these futures and that we're not just setting it up for the elite

And

so one proposal for how to think about

These futures is from the National Labs through the Department of Energy

And so this walk jog run model is set up to try and reduce risk

because as I mentioned before the most important thing in the electricity system is

Make sure that it is super reliable and so in that sort of system. It's really hard to deal with

Sudden change. This is not a model that's set up to do disruptive change. It's about having a slow evolution

So for example right now we're at stage one. So we have really low distributed energy

Adoption we have aging infrastructure. We're still just trying to get reliability and resilience and efficiency in place

but eventually we'll get to stage two and that point we're jogging and

So the idea here is that we're going to have a little bit more

distributed energy resources

Adoption and at that point really gonna have to rethink

How the distribution grid works entirely. So right now the distribution grid is really focused on just delivering power

It's one job deliver power

but we really are going to need to think of it as a platform as something that's providing Grid services and

Ensuring that electricity is reliable and dealing with all of these

injections of power at different points in the network and

Then eventually even later we're going to get to stage 3 where we're running and the idea here is that we'll have really high

Distributed energy adoption and that's when we're gonna see really different

Utility business models, we're gonna see more local energy markets

It's going to be a really different world

And the idea here is that this type of transition?

Gives us time to get a new status quo at each step and this is what's going to make sure that we maintain

reliability in the system

So I want to take a step back and sort of talk about how I approach these types of things and

so my academic training is really focused on

Being able to quantify the human part of complex problems. And so I assume that for any complex problem

There's going to be human

organizational and technical

components to both the problem as well as the solution and

so the main way that I

Address this is using decision science. And any decision science project is going to really be focused on one or more of these three questions

So how should people make decisions you do normative analysis?

How do people make decisions with descriptive research and then how can we help people make better

descriptions and this is really looking at prescriptive interventions and

things like randomized controlled trials, which I'm going to talk about a lot right now and

so

As we go down this path

What I'm arguing is that we don't do a very good job of making sure that we have an evidence-based

strategy, we don't do a very good job of making sure that we're building a body of evidence to make decisions based on and

so I would argue that the best way to build that body of evidence is with experiments and

I don't mean experiments as in try it and see if it works

I mean randomized control trials and we should run them the way we were on medical trials

So this is kind of getting at one of those subtle differences between engineering and science

This isn't necessarily about testing it to see if it works. It's about building a body of evidence

And so I'm going to talk about two papers to really drive this point home on the importance of designing

scientifically valid experiments at this intersection of

Technology and policy and markets and so I'm going to be really focusing on consumer facing experiments because whenever you involve people

Things are more complicated and therefore more interesting

So it take a step back why are randomized control trials the gold standard

So the whole idea here is that you have a population of interest and then you randomly assign people to either the intervention group

Which might be receiving a programmable thermostat or the control group which would be receiving a regular old dumb thermostat

and so the idea is that you collect data and you measure outcomes and at that point you can test your

hypothesis that people who got the programmable thermostats are going to use less electricity and

You can make a causal statement

About their programmable thermostats because you randomly assign people into those two groups. So the whole idea is that

Any other reason for people to use electricity it's going to be randomly

Distributed between these two groups and so any change is going to just be because of the programmable thermostats

The other key piece here is the control group. And so

It's possible that because of the economy or something like that

People are going to reduce their electricity usage anyway

And so you want to be able to account for that when you're trying to estimate the effect of the programmable thermostats?

And

So, you know, maybe that sounds easy, but it's not

It's actually really complicated to run a really good

randomized control trial and so Alex Davis and colleagues at Carnegie Mellon University

Examined 32 publicly available pilots that estimated the effectiveness of three interventions to reduce

residential electricity usage and these included in-home displays dynamic pricing and

Automation like programmable thermostats. And so this was actually the research group that I was in when I was doing my PhD at Carnegie Mellon

And

So there's six types of bias that we know about for medical trials then we need to watch out for in randomized

controlled trials and so basically it gets down to

a

really poor randomization, and so if you

Have people actively volunteering to participate in a particular experiment

It's biased if they're assigned to an intervention or control group, that's not completely random

It's biased even some things that might seem sort of random like assigning people based on their birthday

Not random, there might be something systematically different about people who are born in June rather than November

and

so if people know that the other conditions and what the other conditions in the experiment are it's also going to be biased and

so these are the types of issues that we really need to be thinking about when we're designing randomized control trials and

so

Davis Alex Davis and his colleagues

looked at these 32 publicly available electricity pilots and they found that most of them were biased or

They weren't documented well enough to even be able to tell if they were biased

Which you know makes everyone pretty suspicious that they were biased and so one of the worst ones

Was volunteer selection and so in this case?

27 out of 32 of these studies used an opt-in design rather than an opt-out design

and so what this means is that they were only doing these experiments with people who

Volunteered and wanted to participate and those are the people who are most likely to benefit from the intervention

And so what's gonna happen is you're going to inflate your results?

and

So for example what they found was that after is that they use some statistical methods to estimate

the impact of the

Biased study design and they found that for peak reducing peak electricity use so that's the maximum amount of electricity

That a home uses

The results were roughly halved so they were still significant

But they were just smaller and the may the one that works the best was dynamic pricing with automation. And so that

People reduce their electricity usage by fourteen percent as opposed to the original study which estimated it at twenty five percent

Also looking at overall electricity use they found that most of the interventions that were tested the original studies found really small effects

But when they added the Corrections, they weren't statistically significant. There was no impact

I'm the only one that still remains standing was in home displays and so on they were significant

But they had a really small effect

So it dropped to three percent from five percent and this is really important if we're thinking about how to do cost-benefit analysis

Because if we are overestimating the benefit from these types of programs then

It's going to be really hard

To figure out how much cost to actually allocate to running them in the real world

Also company politics can get the way

When I was doing my PhD, we tried to work with a utility to run a randomized control trial looking at in-home displays

And we wanted to do an opt-out design because it's the gold standard

And we explained that oh, this would mean that we take a thousand customers. We'd send them in-home displays and we'd explain that

It's an experiment

And they can opt out if they want

But the utility was terrified to implement this they were really worried that they'd get terrible press

Because people thought that they were wasting money because they were sending in-home displays to people who didn't want or need them

and so what they ended up telling us was that you know, we

How about we tell you what we want to do and then you tell us how to do it as scientifically as possible

Obviously that's not a way to do good science

so we ended up not being able to work with them and we never ran that study and

So there's a lot of challenges

To kind of getting utilities on board with this notion that randomized control trials are the right way to go

And so

One of the challenges is even if you lay it out in this nice way where you explain that there's technology

Pilots and then eventually you involve you evolve to demonstrations where you engage

Consumers and I'll just point out that I'm not using the word pilots in this way

I'm using pilots for everything and I'm not gonna stop doing that because I showed you this slide

So one of one of the challenges is that you know

Sometimes the point has not doing a pilot has nothing to do with science in some cases

Utilities are just trying to keep their Public Utility Commission happy, you know, they just want to look busy and avoid changing the status quo

They have no intention of learning anything with these pilots in other cases

There's just a lot of confusion about who's responsible for deciding if it's good science or not

Like is it the public utility Commission's job like these are a bunch of lawyers

They don't they don't necessarily know what's good science

and what's not and so there's a lot of

Challenges associated with making sure that utilities are actually engaging with the right kinds of experts when they're trying to make these decisions and build

this body of evidence

So one other paper that I do want to mention is

Called Solarize your community. This is actually a public facing report, which I think is awesome and everyone should try and condense like

Six academic papers that they've written into a public facing report that they can actually share with people

And so this is by Ken Gillingham at Yale and Brian Bollinger at Duke University

and so what they were doing was that they

Saw that there were these solarized campaigns and so Solarize is basically when a city or town all gets together

And gets lots of people to adopt solar at the same time so that everyone gets a price discount

And so they were able to take advantage of this rollout happening in Connecticut. You can see there's a big cluster in Connecticut

To actually run randomized control trials and learn something about what's the best way to design a solarized campaign?

and

So they found that

Having a solarized campaign increased adoptions. So the Solarize campaign is the blue line and the

control and the non solarized

adoptions are the red line and the gray box is showing how long the solarized campaign lasted and so you can see that there's a

huge increase in the number of solar adoptions that happened at that time and that there was also a really sharp decrease in

The price that people were paying for those

installations and that that price decrease only

Lasted as long as the Solarize campaign lasted so there's a lot of incentive for people to participate

and

So they've tested a bunch of different variations to try and figure out you know

What is it about the solarized model that really makes it work, you know?

what's the core of it that matters and so ultimately what they found was that the choice model was the best approach and

So it had a competitive application so cities and towns are really motivated

They had resources available to devote to it

It lasted for twenty weeks which was enough time to kind of roll it out when they limited it to ten or twelve weeks

They actually increased administrative costs because it was just so much harder to get the word out that quickly

It had a tiered pricing structure

so as more and more people adopted the group discount that everyone got

Got got increased got higher and higher and so people were really motivated to get their neighbors and other people to adopt solar

So that they'd get all get a better price

But the key was that they had two to three installers

so introducing this small amount of competition was really valuable and they actually had the most

Adoptions and the lowest prices across all of the models that they tested and also that price decrease

lasted the longest after the solarized campaign ended and so this little adding just this little tweak of

adding some competition among the

installers had a huge impact and they never would have known that unless they had run all these randomized control trials and

So this has really gotten me thinking about you know, how can we do a better job of rolling out this information?

So we run these randomized control trials and then how do we make sure people actually get that information?

And so one thing I found out about was this whole concept called implementation science

And so it's something that's really mostly done in public health and it's basically this whole body of research

They have a journal they have a conference

To try and figure out after what happens after you do the randomized control trial

How do you once you figure out the best way to do something? How do you get everyone to do that?

How do you get all the doctors and all the hospitals to actually do that?

And so I think that there's an analogy here to energy that we need to think about how to do this for the electorate's

the electricity system

and

So I'm just you know spitballing some ideas, you know, I think that you know, we can do research on

Regulator and utility decision-making. It's something I'm interested in

We can aggregate the results of experiments and pilots and demonstrations and actually actively build this body of evidence

We maybe we should be training utilities and regulators and policy makers on what it means to do randomized control trials and why they're valuable

Wouldn't it be awesome if if utilities had a chief evaluation officer who's responsible for making sure that this stuff happened? That'd be awesome

and

So last I just want to leave you with a couple thoughts about you know, where you fit in

So we've talked about how the grids interconnected how we have this complex

Interplay between the regulatory market and Pauwels the environment

How there's these trends in decentralization electrification and digitalization that are driving a lot of trains

It's possible that blockchain base micro grids are our future

People are advocating for this walk jog run model to have this slow evolution in electricity system

But if we're doing that we need to make sure that we're running

Scientifically valid experiments and especially for customer-facing programs, even though that's very politically fraught and utilities are scared

Because most of the electricity pilots that are happening are biased and ironically we're actually going to waste more money in the long term

Running these biased experiments than if we just did it right from the beginning

And so the the real trick here is to use randomized control trials

whenever we're running rolling out programs to actually optimize the program design and

So what I want to leave you with is that you know, there's opportunities for you to engage with some of this

You know you can participate

like if you own your house like you can think about getting solar

If you can go to energy sage calm, this is a really great resource for figuring out if solar makes sense for you

You know, it's your electricity system. You can participate

Also advocate, you know, a lot of these discussion of these decisions are being made by policy makers and elected officials

So make sure that they know what kind of electricity system that you want, you know, make sure that you vote

It's always a good idea

If you are in the electricity space or you're thinking about getting into it, you know run experiments

It's really really important to make sure that we're building this body of evidence and sharing it

And then lastly I just want to emphasize the importance of increasing accessibility

There's a lot of opportunity to make sure that this transition is accessible

As particularly for low and moderate income households where they might not have the financial or just time

Resources to engage with all of this change and so, you know technology's not going to solve all of these problems

But it's definitely going to be part of the solution. So, thank you

For more infomation >> "The Future of the Grid: Policy, Technology, and Market Change" by Casey Canfield [PWLConf 2018] - Duration: 51:40.

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STRAWBERRY WEEK There's no "must" in lust - Duration: 6:23.

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Objectif Match - S7E7 | « Ils veulent nous voir 3ème » - Duration: 10:10.

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Kidnapper Kesariya | Latest South Indian Action Movie | South Action Movies - Duration: 2:00:03.

Music

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絕美林志玲43歲仍單身 蔡康永「3個字」戳破原因 - Duration: 2:28.

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Audi A5 Coupé 1.8 TFSI PRO LINE S | AUTOMAAT | XENON | NAVI | 19 INCH VELGEN | - Duration: 1:11.

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রাস্তায় প্রস্রাব করলে কি ক্ষতি হবে জেনে নিন। মাওলানা আবু হানিফ আল কাদেরী। মিম টিভি অনলাইন - Duration: 3:28.

For more infomation >> রাস্তায় প্রস্রাব করলে কি ক্ষতি হবে জেনে নিন। মাওলানা আবু হানিফ আল কাদেরী। মিম টিভি অনলাইন - Duration: 3:28.

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Laeticia Hallyday: « Il y a beaucoup de mensonges orchestrées, de mépris, d'humiliation… » - Duration: 2:50.

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ROYAL AU CHOCOLAT (Trianon) - Recette ultime - Duration: 4:56.

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Volvo S60 2.4D MOMENTUM (131pk) Clima/ Cruise/ Elek. pakket/ Armsteun/ Multi. Stuur/ 15'' LMV/ Mistl - Duration: 1:11.

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Splatuber trick or treating「Splatoon 2 🦑」 - Duration: 2:14:22.

For more infomation >> Splatuber trick or treating「Splatoon 2 🦑」 - Duration: 2:14:22.

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Objectif Match - S7E7 | « Ils veulent nous voir 3ème » - Duration: 10:10.

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How ancient is your soul? Pick one old spirit personality test | Guess who you are quiz - Duration: 10:07.

How ancient is your soul? Pick one old spirit personality test | Guess who you are quiz

What soul age are you? How old is your soul spirit?

For more infomation >> How ancient is your soul? Pick one old spirit personality test | Guess who you are quiz - Duration: 10:07.

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Trump Supporter Dating App Leaked ALL Users' Data On Launch Day - Duration: 3:49.

If you were one of the 1,600 people earlier this week who downloaded the app Donald Daters

on release date, I have some bad news for you.

Other than the fact that, obviously, you're a close-minded person who's probably never

going to find love, the bad news is that Donald Daters, which was an app for IOS and Android

for like-minded Donald Trump supporters to meet, find love and live happily ever after;

the day that it launched earlier this week they accidentally leaked all of their users'

data to anyone who knows how to access that kind of thing.

In fact according to Tech Crunch, multiple different groups were able to get in there

and access all of the private data of all 1,600 people who had already signed up on

the Donald Daters app.

Literally, upon launch, this thing leaked all the data for these lonely Donald Trump

supporters out there looking for love.

And this next half of the story helps explain why this thing was such a complete failure.

You see, Donald Daters was actually founded by former Marco Rubio campaign aide Emily

Moreno.

Now, "former Marco Rubio campaign aide" is all you needed to know.

And if I were to tell you that there was a new restaurant down the street that was being

run and founded by a former Marco Rubio campaign aide, you could probably go ahead and guarantee

that it's going to have bad service, bad food, and bad environment.

Marco Rubio, much like Donald Trump himself, everything the guy touches turns to crap.

And that apparently also happened with Emily Moreno who left the Rubio campaign to go start

this dating app for Donald Trump supporters, because she claims it's so hard out there

for Trump supporters to date, to find somebody willing to date them.

So we wanted to set this up so that everybody that supports Trump could find a like-minded

soulmate.

Now hear me out on this.

Maybe, maybe if you weren't supporting a racist who locks little children in cages and acting

like everything with that is totally fine; maybe if you didn't support the biggest bully

to ever occupy the White House; who still, being one of the most grotesque-looking human

beings in the country, still finds it okay to make fun of other people's appearances,

even as President of the United States; maybe if you didn't support those things, it wouldn't

be so hard to find a date.

I mean look, in my younger days, I dated conservative women.

And yes we had political disagreements, but it didn't end the relationships.

You can still find somebody who you disagree with on politics and have a happy and healthy

relationship.

But what's happened now is that these Donald Trump supporters have become a cult.

And they're only happy cohorting with other cult members, because they're the only other

ones who will accept them.

This isn't about political differences.

It's not about policy differences.

It's about those of us who live in reality and those, like those on Donald Daters, who

want to continue living in this fantasy alternative reality, where only their opinions and their

feelings matter.

For more infomation >> Trump Supporter Dating App Leaked ALL Users' Data On Launch Day - Duration: 3:49.

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"Devil May Cry 5" | Real Life Models | Character Details - Duration: 12:36.

"Guess I get to see with my own eyes."

"Jackpot"

"Devil May Cry"

What's going on guys? My name is RBG, and we are back with more coverage on Devil May Cry 5.

In today's upload I thought I'd do something a little different and go behind the scenes of the actual models who've given their likenesses to DMC5.

Because I don't think there are that many people covering that particular info.

Like it tends to go unnoticed for whatever reason.

So I'm gonna go ahead and talk about them and give my thoughts on the overall designs for each character model.

But before we get into today's topic I wanna remind you that I am now an amazon associate/affiliate.

This platform allows me to promote certain items that I think will peak your interests.

And 1 of the main items I think you'll be interested in is this Devil May Graphics Art book titled "3142."

Those specific numbers represent the actual chronology the games are set in.

And it's packed with tons of art designs, unused concepts, and exclusive interviews from the devs and artist.

I also have links for other DMC related media that'll get you caught up to speed on the story before the newest game comes out.

The links will be in the description and pinned in the comments so check em out if you're interested.

But anyways we all know that Capcom has been very adamant about using their in-house graphics engine called the RE Resident Evil engine.

An engine that specializes in a technique called subsurface scatters which allows them to produce realistic skin, dynamic shadows, and other details while running at a native 4k output.

So they're working with some very powerful software that's most likely gonna be used on future Triple A Capcom titles for years to come.

And I think it's mainly for the games that'll be going for a more realistic look.

Because for the most part the RE Engine has mainly been centered capturing that photo-realistic aesthetic.

There's an insane amount of emphasis they put on making characters, and creatures look real.

So much to the point that they go outta their way to scan up actual people and physical models of items etc.

That's been the overall development choice for DMC5.

As you can see by the photos creative liberties were taken to scan up human models to give a realistic look to the characters.

From the physiques to actual clothing attire which were created in London.

And I'm digging this approach.

1 of the things I appreciate the most is how there seems to be a balance of fantasy and keeping the clothing designs grounded.

Like I'm not trying to diss the older entries.

The clothes aren't over the top to the point where the characters look like there in a fictitious world.

They look more streamlined and cosplayers will have an easier time re-making the clothes.

Dante is basically wearing a zippable hoodie trench coat with a button up and biker pants.

Something that is dialed down compared to his typical look but it doesn't necessarily deviate from his iconic look.

If anything I think the boots are probably the most stylistic aspect to Dante's design with all the belts wrapping around it.

But anyways we have model and fitness fanatic, Adam Cowie providing his looks for Devil May Cry's flagship player.

On the day of DMC5's reveal at this year's E3 he took to his instagram to reveal that he would be physically portraying Dante.

And I think he's an exceptional choice for the role.

Like he has the right type of build that's not to bulky but just the right amount of muscle and height.

If Dante is in his mid to late 40's I'd expect him to have a more masculine face.

As opposed to his DMC2 face where it looks like he was bitten by a radioactive Fabio.

It looks like the developers went out of their way to make slight modifications to age him up.

I know at PAX West they mentioned that the didn't wanna make an exact digital double of all the models.

They more so wanted to give them a more realistic look while bringing out their character traits.

So this is pretty cool.

Like you can instantly tell that it's Dante based on his somewhat arrogant expression.

The only thing that that I think isn't really scanned is the hair.

Since we see Adam wearing some kind of cap on his head to probably get more focus on his face and add in the silverish hair later.

Now I'm not sure if that's in fact Adam's facial hair or not.

I don't think it is given that the photos show that he has a clean shave with a little 5 o'clock shadow.

But anyways besides the looks, we still have Reuben Langdon providing his voice talents for Dante along with motion capture.

So besides the overall aesthetic, not much has changed with his character.

It's still up in the air if Adam Cowie's likenesses will be used for Vergil since he is Dante's identical twin.

I'm assuming that if he is then it'll have the most alterations given the fact that his body looks to be corroded in the reveal trailer.

But moving on the next model we have is very similar to the 1st 1.

Karlo Baker, who's also a fitness buff and a professional model.

Now this in my opinion is the model that most fans including myself feel indifferent about.

He just doesn't look anything like Nero compared to his DMC4 design.

His nose looks wider compared to the original and his jawline is too chizzled.

And this is something that doesn't translate well in some of the cutscenes.

Like there are certain moments where Nero's expression can go from being stoic, to downright derpy depending on what he's doing.

And I think Itsuno and his team probably handpicked Karlo to give him a more mature look since this game takes place several years after part 4.

And I think it's also because he looks like he could be Adam's Cowie's brother or cousin.

And if the devs were looking at it from that point of view it'd make perfect sense since Dante & Nero are literally blood relatives.

But it's mainly the nose that throws the character model off.

I don't think much was changed besides the hair

As I mentioned his clothes were also digitally scanned up in the game.

And the actual Jacket has been shown off at multiple press conferences.

And there was even a statue replicate with the full attired at the Tokyo Game Show.

When it comes to Nero's attire I'd say it's cool

It sort of puts me in the mind of the Zion civilians from the Matrix.

Like he has that post apocalyptic aesthetic especially with the tethered sweater and white undershirt.

But anyways Johnny Young Bosch will also be returning to voice and provide motion capture for Nero.

But moving on we have Nico's model, Emily Bador.

This 1 is probably the most high profile out of all the models.

She has a huge following and has been featured in a slew of commercials.

For the longest time we didn't know who Capcom was using for Nico's digital model but back in August at PAX West 2018, they revealed that it was Emily Bador.

And this character has really grown on me.

I really like how she's a more hands-on weapon smith that doesn't mind entering into the chaos.

Her attire pretty much matches her country girl personality with the daisy dukes and cowgirl boots.

As you can see by the footage it looks like she's gonna have an alternate costume.

Which is a welding smock for when she has to cover up during some of her weapon crafting.

As far as the face is concerned it's probably my favorite model out of all the cast.

Because everything came out great.

Especially Emily's likenesses.

Although I will say that it looks like they reduced the actual lip size on the digital double and her eyebrows have been dialed down.

Among the other obvious changes are the additions of the hair and tattoos.

As far as her voice and mocap actor's are concerned there's still no official details on them.

I've heard that Emily will be lending her voice to the character as well.

But I don't think she will because she has a thick English accent in real life.

But hey, a lot of British actors in Hollywood know how to sound American.

There's not much else I can say about the character.

So this brings me to Lady's model, Andrea Tivador.

Unlike the other models

Andrea just so happens to be a film actress.

And this isn't her first time having her likeness used in a digital project.

For those who've seen Final Fantasy XV Kingslaive, you'll recognize her as Crowe Altius.

A Kingsglaive member and powerful mage.

This character model is 1 of the 1's I have to say maintains that hyper stylized Devil May Cry fashion the most.

I'd go so far as to say her design supersede her DMC4 look.

Which for the longest time has been my all time favorite for Lady.

Because the business attire was pretty self explanatory.

She means business.

This new look seems to take certain visual cues from the previous versions.

Like her signature white button up, that looks like she borrowed it out of Iori Yagami's closet.

And she now has a leather jacket like her Devil May Cry colleagues.

1 of my favorite design choices would have to be the bare ass chaps.

Because this shows that she's just as expressive with her sex appeal as she was in DMC4.

And she's rocking her usual utility belt that gives off the illusion that she's wearing a school girl skirt.

Now granted her tata's have been drastically nerfed compared to her previous version

but I guess that's due in part to the actual model not being that well endowed.

And I know this is nitpicky

but I really think the design team should've considered aging her up a little considering she's only a few years younger than Dante.

But I guess since her appearance is based off of the duo girl group Tatu's lead singer, Julia Volkova

They probably wanted to retain her youthful look.

But other than that everything makes her look recognizable.

This next 1 is quite a doozy.

And that's Trish who's being doubled after UK model, Ariana Diamant.

Now Trish's digital double has undoubtedly gotten the most mixed reactions.

Because of how weird her face looks in ingame.

Like it's not necessarily bad by any means but it does not look like her at all.

Which is weird because based on some of the still shots you tell that it is in fact based after Ariana Diamant's likenesses.

I wanted to make sure it wasn't just me being too critical

but I looked at some of the comments on the Japanese Devil May Cry twitter account fans shared my sentiments.

With some noting that Capcom probably re-used Mia's model from Resident Evil 7.

Now as I mentioned earlier with Nero this is most likely is due to the model's face not translating well into cg with certain expressions.

Like I know that the most recent trailer we got the facial captures were from the Japanese actors just with English diologue.

So maybe that could probably be why her face looked a little weird.

I know this is the first time I've ever seen Trish crack a full blown smile with her teeth showing.

But I think her face should be a little bit longer, especially the bridge of her nose.

Like Trish has always had a unique slender looking face.

And after looking at Ariana's photo's she looks like the ideal look for the character.

It just looks like the Capcom team may have tampered with her a little too much.

I really feel like they didn't have to tweak anything because the model was already perfect.

What I do love is how her attire looks more like it did in the 1st Devil May Cry game with a little added detail.

isn't as busty as her DMC4 model but I'm not really gonna complain.

Her milk motels were overly expressive in the jiggle department anyways if you ask me.

Regarding her voice actress, there's still no info. So we'll just have to wait and see.

Next up is the newly introduced character, V.

And he's being modeled after Owen Hamze. Now I think this guy is an up and coming model.

Now and I'm guessing that this guy is an up and coming model.

He has a smaller following compared to the others but considering that he's being featured in DMC5 he's gonna gain popularity.

Now V has been the butt of a few jokes in the fandom.

With some calling him Adam Driver and Kylo Ren after he was seen in the leaked footage.

I honestly didn't think he looked like Adam Driver at all.

He just looks like a weird emo kid.

Not to mention that all the angles we saw him in didn't do him justice.

If anything I feel like this is the least altered model since most of Owen's characteristics have remained in tact.

I think his slim build really helps give off the feeling that V is just a frail guy with a cane.

And he has a very enigmatic look to him.

I love the cut off sleeves trench coat and the wrist bands.

But I'm not really feeling the hippy sandals.

I would much prefer him with boots.

But I guess since he's rumored to be a demon summoner and not much of a runner it sorta fits him.

I really think the tattoos are gonna play a part in his abilities.

Because they have a very mystic look to them on some Scar from Full Metal Alchemist shit.

According to the IMDB it says he's being by a guy by the name of Lukas the 2nd.

And honestly I'm not too familiar with his work.

His IMDB doesn't list anything so I'm guessing this is his first gig.

Nevertheless the voice fits his character perfectly.

"He who desires but act not breeds pestilence."

"So it is written."

This last character model I wanna talk about is Morrison.

Unfortunately there isn't anything on the actual actor who he's based on.

Or who's doing his voice.

I've mentioned in 1 of my 1st videos how I think he could be voiced by Beau Billingslea, who's known for his role as Jet Black in Cowbody Bebop.

But his IMDB profile doesn't mention anything about Devil May Cry 5.

I'm honestly under the impression that he could be your typical NPC who was made from the ground up.

1 of the most noticeable changes would have to be his change in ethnicity.

He was originally Caucasian in the Devil May Cry anime but for whatever reason they've made him Black.

But his fashion sense still remains the same which shows that they are trying to remain consistent.

And what's interesting enough is that he's the first character to transition from the DMC anime into the video games.

But with that I'd like to bring this video to a close.

I wanna know what you guys think about the models and actors I've mentioned.

Are you officially sold on Capcom's choices.

And do you like their designs?

Let me know down in the comments below.

As always I'd appreciate it if you like or dislike the video.

It doesn't have to be a thumbs up, it can be a thumbs down.

Any feedback is good feedback and will only help me improve on future content.

But if you really enjoyed the video it'd help me out tremendously if you shared it on social media outlets with all your friends and followers.

Also don't forget to check out the items I mentioned in my Amazon affiliate links.

You don't even have necessarily buy anything.

Simply clicking the links will help.

But this is your boy RBG signing out on another video.

I'll catch you guys later.

Peace out.

For more infomation >> "Devil May Cry 5" | Real Life Models | Character Details - Duration: 12:36.

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"The Future of the Grid: Policy, Technology, and Market Change" by Casey Canfield [PWLConf 2018] - Duration: 51:40.

So I'm gonna be talking about the future of the grid policy technology and market changes

So it's an incredibly exciting time to be talking about the changing electricity grid and so as

There's a huge amount of change going on as we try to do this transition from all of this

20th century aging infrastructure to try and meet our 21st century demands and

So obviously this type of change is going to create conflict, you know

People are not gonna agree about which way to go forward and so some places

Have like cities states counties. They've made hundred percent renewable energy goals

These are really trying to get at these sustainability and climate change issues

There's other places like Puerto Rico the Carolinas just recently where they're really focused on

Resiliency and just trying to figure out how can we keep the lights on in the face of all these increased extreme weather events?

and

then there's the utilities the

Utilities are just trying to figure out how they can keep operating how their business model can stay relevant

And so the utility death spiral is something that comes up a lot in these conversations

And so the utility death spiral is basically the whole concept that

As more and more people are adopting solar and storage and these types of distributed technologies

They're gonna defect from the grid

And so then there's gonna be less people who are getting electricity from their utility

And so then the utility doesn't have as many people to spread those costs across so that's going to increase the cost of electricity

coming from the utility and more people are gonna defect and this is just going to go on and on until the utility just

you know collapses into a death spiral and

so

what I want to talk to you about is kind of what's going on with the grid today on what are

Driving some of these changes and how are we going to navigate this?

So a big question here is going to be

How like we have the what's going on today? I'm going to talk about one potential future a spoiler alert

It's gonna involve blockchain

But then the question that I'm really interested in is

How do we navigate this like what types of analysis do we need for the regulators? And the

policymakers and utilities who are the ones who are making these decisions and trying to figure out what should we invest in now and what's

gonna be relevant in the future and then I want to leave you with a couple thoughts about

How you fit in and where you might be able to to participate in this?

So

generally electricity is generated at these big power plants and

gets

Shoved on to the transmission grid and so the transmission grid is designed to be able to transport electricity over

Really long distances and so because of that it's at a really high voltage and so it'll be at like a hundred seven hundred

kilovolts, and so then it goes through a transformer and this steps down the voltage and so when you gets closer to your house

It's actually

Steps down to be part of the distribution grid and so the distribution grid is at a lower voltage

Is it like 10 kilovolts?

And then when it gets even closer to your house, it actually gets stepped down to the 120 volts

Which is what we actually use for a regular electricity

And

so

this on this map of the transmission grid

You'll see that there's some like gray and purple lines. Those are on the lower end of the voltage. So that's around a hundred kilovolts

But then the red and the hot pink that's on the higher end of the voltage

and so that's they're going to be around three hundred five hundred kilovolts and

so

This system first started coming online online in the 1880s

So the very first transmission line was installed in 1889 in

Oregon and so was actually from

The Willamette Falls in Oregon City, Oregon to downtown Portland, Oregon, it was only 13 miles and so by

1914 there were 55 transmission lines around the u.s

in

1936 we passed the rural electrification act. And so that was to create these

low-interest federal loans so that we could actually pay for

distribution grids to be built in rural areas

And nowadays that same laws actually being used for rural broadband

So that gives you a sense of our how our ideas about basic needs have changed over time

And

So the entire grid is interconnected

But it's also separated into three main parts

And so there's the Western interconnection the eastern interconnection and the Texas interconnection. So, Texas. Yes

Yeah, you don't mess with, Texas

and

So these regions are managed separately and within each region. We have several different balancing authorities

And so these balancing authorities are responsible

For balancing the demand and supply and the electrical grid at every single moment

And so right now we don't really have very much storage on the grid, which would you know make this a lot easier?

and so

Operators have to be paying attention at every moment

forecasting what electricity usage is going to be in the future to make sure that the supply and demand are

Perfectly balanced in order to avoid a blackout scenario

But of course this doesn't always work out the way we might hope

Blackouts are still a very frequent problem. And so does anyone remember the Northeast blackout of 2003?

It was a major major blackout. It was also a really really great example of a cascading failure and

so basically what happened is that it was a really hot August day and

He makes transmission lines sag

and so a transmission line in Ohio touched a tree and it caused the current to briefly increase and

This caused the protective automatic equipment to automatically shut off the line

So then all of the electricity that had been going down that transmission line needed to find someplace else to go

and that caused other lines to get overloaded and then they tripped off and so normally

This is a totally manageable problem. The operator pushes a few buttons. They make a couple phone calls

Everything's balanced again

however in this particular situation

First energy who was in charge of that first transmission line

It turned out that is you might remember from earlier in the morning

They had a computer that had a software bug a race condition. And so what what ended up happening?

Was that that computer was frozen for about an hour before anyone noticed and because of that no one heard or saw any

Alarms suggesting that everything was going horribly horribly wrong. And so they didn't intervene

they didn't do anything and

so ultimately this blackout affected 10,000,000 people in Ontario and

45 million people in eight US states

So all of New York City lost power took two days to two weeks to get the power back on

Amtrak stopped running cell phone stopped working water systems lost pressure

So obviously this was an incredibly expensive accident

Estimates put it at six billion dollars. And the reason I'm telling you this story is because

reliability is the most

important thing that a utility does and

so often if you are talking to someone who works at a utility and you have some crazy new idea of how you're going to

Just revolutionize the whole system. They just need to completely reorganize. No big deal

the first thing that they're gonna tell you is I

Don't know. I'm really worried that that's gonna impact reliability

Because utilities are not going to do anything that impacts reliability and they shouldn't having reliable

Electricity is critical for our economy and for Public Health

So I've talked a little bit about how the electricity grids operated give you a sense of that

And so now I want to talk a little bit about the market

regulatory and policy parts and

so

as indicated on this slide

states are generally separated into regulated and restructured markets and so in the white states like

Washington and Missouri

You'll find that we have regulated gas and electricity markets. And so generally what this means is that there's a public

There's a Public Utility Commission and

They're responsible for overseeing a utility who's a monopoly that operates in a specific region

and so if that utility wants to

invest in more infrastructure, if they want to change the electricity prices, they have to go and get permission from that regulator and

So in this context you'll generally find

Vertically integrated utilities so they own both the generation equipment as well as all the wires

you'll also find smaller utilities - like

Municipal utilities where they're owned and operated by the city government

Also coops. So those are typically in rural areas and they operate within not-for-profit business model and

so the blue states are

deregulated or restructured and so

Deregulated is kind of a misnomer because there's actually still a lot of regulation. There's still a Public Utility Commission

but what this generally means is that they're operated with market principles and

So in the dark blue states like Texas and Oregon, that's where they have

Deregulated or restructured electricity markets then the light blue states

like Florida that's where they've only deregulated their gas markets and then the stripy ones are where we've

deregulated both the gas and the electricity markets and

so in these states what happens is that there's an energy market to allocate resources and different companies own the

Generation and the wires so that no one has a conflict of interest. And so this is something this rewrite

Deregulated and restructured markets are still pretty controversial

so for example

There's lots of discussions right now about how do a hundred percent renewable energy policy fit into a market structure

Um, the problem here is that you can't just use a carbon price

because these

Renewable energy policies are not technology neutral

So if you have a carbon price what's more than likely to happen is that you'll increase natural gas generation, maybe nuclear generation. Um

But you won't necessarily

Drive solar and wind adoption the way that the law is really intending

So then the question is okay, but carbon price isn't going to work. What are we supposed to do?

Should we have separate markets for renewables should weari regulate?

I mean, this is a serious conversation that people are having there's lots of

Uncertainty about where we're gonna move forward

So just to give you one example on the policy side

I'm gonna talk about how net excess generation

So basically if you have solar panels on your roof and you produce more electricity than you use that's excess

generation and the way that that gets compensated differs depending on what state you live in and so in

the dark blue states like, California

the excess generation is

Compensated at the retail rate. So basically this means that if you are

Generating more electricity than you use your electricity meters actually going to run backwards

And so that's awesome. If you really want to encourage people to adopt solar it makes the economics awesome

But the negative side is that it makes the utilities job a lot harder

Because the entire electrical grid is designed so that utilities put power on and customers take power off

It's a one-way flow. And so with solar power we're completely changing that whole paradigm

so now

customers can inject power into the grid and

At the same time the utility is still responsible for reliability

they're still responsible for making sure that everything is perfectly balanced that whole time and there is still a cost associated with that and

so at the like middle blue states

So for example, Maine

What they do is they and say at the retail rate at first

For some of the generation and then they switch to a lower rate

at the light blue like, Missouri

They only will credit it at a lower rate. Typically, it's the avoided cost rate or the wholesale rate

and so this is basically what the utility would have paid for that generation and the idea here is that

It's actually

Accounting for a little bit of the cost that the utility is incurring because there's still the backup generation for that home

So even if you are putting electricity into the grid at any moment

Your solar panels for example might stop working and you would need electricity and the utility is there to make sure that you get it

and

Then in the white states like Texas, they are sorry in the stripe ones

Which Oklahoma is the one example here?

They actually have no obligation to compensate excess generation

And then in the white states like Texas, they don't have any statewide rules

obligating them to compensate or not compensate generation and

so the main point I wanted to make here is that

When you're trying to figure out the economics of solar, it's not necessarily just about how sunny your roof is

There's going to be different market and policy conditions that affect the economics of it and this varies depending on what state you're in

And

so I've talked a little bit about how the electricity is operated today and how there's this really complex interplay between

Technology, the market is the regulatory environment and policy

however, I also mentioned that everything's changing and

So there's three trends that are really shifting the industry. So that's

decentralization

electrification and

Digitalization, so I'm going to go into a little bit more detail about each of these

So

Decentralization the whole idea is that we're shifting from this really centralized system where you have these big power plants

They're distributing all the electricity to a decentralized system. Where?

anyone can go and buy some solar panels and be injecting power into the grid and

So the main technologies that are involved here are distributed generation. So typically solar panels

Distribute its storage, but then also using less electricity

Matters here. So negawatts is typically the term a phrase so energy efficiency and demand response and

so

So and so these different technologies create problems as well as opportunities

So for example with solar panels

one of the complaints that utilities often have is that there's this thing called the duct curve and

So it's called a duct curve because people think it looks like a duck. So if you see the duck

Yeah, it looks like a duck and so the idea here is that when you have this sharp drop in

Electricity usage that's really hard for utilities to deal with these big power plants like coal and nuclear

they they can't change the electricity output that quickly and

So that's why there's been a big resurgence and why it's been really valuable to have big resurgence in natural gas

Because that has a much better ramping capability

And so that's why people are getting really excited about storage and so storage

Has the potential to address the duck curve and so storage

By being able to absorb some of that electricity can flatten the peaks and valleys. And so what this means is that

utilities are super happy because it actually makes the electricity much more predictable or that electricity demand much more predictable and

Utilities like things that are predictable it makes their job really easy

But then there's also energy efficiencies the idea here is to reduce the overall demand

And so this reduced the number of power plants that utilities need to build

And then there's demand response. And so this is typically a very targeted

Effort and so for example when during a peak demand crisis, so for example, it's a hot summer day

Everyone's got their air conditioning running and the utilities having trouble supplying all of that electricity

They'll use Adam Anderson program to get people to reduce their electricity usage so that they can keep the supply and demand

perfectly balanced

And

so in each of these cases customers are making decisions about

Whether or not to implement these technologies and utilities may or may not be involved in that decision

And so it's become really clear utilities that they need to be a lot more involved in

Customer decision-making and being able to coordinate across customers

So the next big trend is

electrification and so in this graph on the Left this is talking about how the cost of lithium-ion

batteries has been dropping and is projected to continue to drop and

so this is making storage a lot more of a realistic option and

So in the graph on the right?

You can see that electric vehicles are projected to be an increasing percentage of new car sales and so by 2040

It's almost 40 percent of new car sales

and so this creates a lot of really exciting opportunities and so for example instead of having

homeowners buy a separate storage a

Stationary battery storage for their house. Maybe they can just use their car that they already have

You know in this future where everyone has electric cars

You know, maybe we can provide grid reliability

services

Buying or stopping the charging of electric vehicles

Based on what's happening on the grid and what's going to provide the most benefit, you know?

Maybe if we really think far into the future if we have autonomous vehicles, maybe while you're at work

you're autonomous electric vehicle can go drive to a part of the grid that needs some support and

Provide services there and make money while you're at work

You know sky's limit

There's all kinds of crazy things

But the idea here really is that

Electrification is really changing the boundaries of what matters for grid operations. It's

so

Utilities worry about people using less electricity because it affects their bottom line

But also it affects their degrees of freedom for being able to address grid reliability

so electrification

increases those degrees of freedom

And the last big trend is

digitalization and so the idea here is that we have all these smart sensors and

Automatic control systems and all this date big data being collected

that we can use to optimize the system and so

For example, there's some utilities who when there's a blackout. They have no idea how big it is

They have no visibility into their system and that's why you have to call them on the phone and tell them hey

I don't have electricity because they don't know and so there's been a big push to have advanced metering infrastructure or am I on?

Smart meters on this. It's been a big part of pushing the smart grid in the last 10 years

And so what this does is this gives utilities a lot more visibility into the system so that they know how much electricity

individual houses are using and so this also means the utilities are collecting huge amounts of data about how

Much electricity homes are using and most utilities don't even have the capacity to deal with any of that data

Like they don't have a data scientist, you know, they're barely able to just store all that data

So there's a lot of opportunity to be able to better leverage that that's not happening right now

This also includes on technology like smart inverters. So smart inverters are

basically a piece of electronics that

interfaces between a solar panel and the grid so we can imagine that some point we'll have these smart inverters where

They can actually sense the grid conditions and when they're injecting power

They can change what they're injecting based on the conditions of the grid to increase grid reliability

And so that's actually how we get to some of these ideas about having a self-healing grid

And so of course

All of this very exciting, but what people worry about is the cybersecurity implications

and so there's already

Cybersecurity risks at utilities and this is only going to increase them

And so there's a lot of work being done for example to increase information sharing across utilities

So that they're better able to identify attacks sooner in

some ways you might think that oh

This might be an argument for why we should have more distributed energy generation

because if the system's more resilient then that means

We won't be

The impact of a cyber attack won't be as bad. And so then it won't matter

of course that assumes that

The smart inverter which is a critical piece of a distributed energy system is not the actual attack vector

So there's still a lot of things to get figured out

So I've talked a little bit about the grid today and hope I've

Sort of explained how it's a pretty complex system right now, and it's only gonna get more and more

Complicated as we move into the future

And so now I want to talk about just one example future that we could be headed towards

So everyone close your eyes

close your eyes and

So let's imagine a future where you just bought a house in a new up-and-coming neighborhood

The house already has solar panels and a built in home energy management system

Which you're well aware of because it made it one of the more

Desirable houses on the market and you definitely paid a premium for it

You pull your electric car into the garage and it starts wirelessly charging based on your settings to minimize cost

You start plugging in all of your Internet of Things devices

Of course, they won't talk to the home energy management system right away. You didn't die and go to heaven. This is the real world

You spend a couple hours debugging it

And now the management system can control your fridge your air conditioner your dryer a couple other

appliances based on the real time price signals coming from the grid

You check your mail and you have a welcome to the neighborhood block chain letter. That's right your cool

You have a neighborhood micro-grid with a peer-to-peer market so you can open your eyes

So let's explore that a little bit. Like what does that mean to have a neighborhood blockchain?

And

so

Decentralization electrification and digitalization aren't just changing the technology of the grid

it's also forcing people to completely rethink how the market and policy environment is and

So one of the more interesting departures is these block chain based micro grids or more broadly

We can think of them as local energy markets

and so the idea here is that there are consumers who are homes without any generation and then there's

prosumers who are consumers who are producing electricity and

There's some sort of market mechanism that manages the flow of information about energy

transactions as well as the financial transactions and so

There's a lot of interest in the potential of blockchain to be that market mechanism

The idea is that this could reduce the administrative cost of transacting at this scale

Assuming we get a couple minor issues like the computational cost of blockchain figured out

but that hasn't stopped people from using it and

So just in case you're like the one person who doesn't know blockchain is I'm gonna do a quick quick review

So the idea is that there's a participant who is in the network and they want to request a transaction of some sort

And so that request is broadcast to the other computers in the network and then each computer has two independent

Independently validate or authenticate that the request is valid then once it gets verified

You can produce a new block of data that data is added that block is added to the blockchain permanently and you've done it

And so it's anyone here from Brooklyn

Have you heard have you heard if the brooklyn micro grid?

Okay, it's not totally surprising I guess so I don't have any like special insider information about the Brooklyn micro grid

My understanding is that's a pretty small project. It's run out of the lo3 energy

They're a start-up and so my understanding is that there's only a couple people who are transacting on it

They have these big ambitions to do real-time pricing and they haven't quite gotten there yet

But it's kind of exciting that, you know people in the US, you know, not not just in Europe

Are actually testing

using

blockchain for a local energy market on a micro grid here

And

so

Generally the idea is that you have to separate the virtual and physical layers

And so the virtual layer is the blockchain part

so all of the market and pricing information is added to the blockchain on one block at a time and

Transmitted to all of the other homes on the network

however, in order for this to work you need to also be able to

Transfer the electricity. You cannot transfer electricity with blockchain

So for this part just to be clear

And so for this part, they actually have to take advantage of the distribution network

and so in this case, they're working with their local utility ComEd and ComEd is

Facilitating this transaction because they're the ones who actually own the wires

And so what this means is that if you're trying to buy renewable energy from the neighborhood

blockchain in the Brooklyn micro grid

You're not guaranteed

To get electrons that came from solar panels. That's not how the grid works. You can't control where the electrons go

so what you're really paying for is for someone to generate electricity from a solar panel and put that onto the grid and

Then you take electricity at that same time

and so as more and more homes get solar power in your micro grid the

Probability of the electrons you personally receive being from solar power increases so over time you'll get there

But there's no guarantee

and

So how exactly does this transaction work?

So the idea is that you have consumers who are the indicated by a see those are the people who need to buy electricity

and then you have the prosumers who are

Designated by a P and they're the ones who are producing electricity. And so

Typically, you'd have an automatic system that does this but basically each consumer needs to put in an order for how much electricity

They want to buy in the next fifteen minute interval. And then what's the maximum price that they're willing to pay?

then each prosumer needs to put in an order saying how much electricity they're willing to sell in the next fifteen minute interval and

What's the minimum price that they're willing to accept?

Then

Whoever said they were willing to pay the most for the electricity they get their electricity needs allocated first

and so once

they get their electricity needs and you go the next person the next person the next person and then the last person who gets

Electricity allocated to them based on how much is available?

That's the market clearing price. And so that's the price that everyone pays and

so

This is actually really really similar to how energy markets work at a regional scale in general

and

So one of the main barriers here is that there's actually no legal or regulatory

structure for this sort of hyperlocal

transaction and so this is one of the major things that the Brooklyn micro grid is really trying to figure out like what should the

Rules be like what license do they need like whose permission do they need?

They're really trying to figure out some of these questions and so it's it's kind of exciting to see where this goes

So I encourage you to follow the Brooklyn micro. Grid see where they go

But of course not everything is super shiny and wonderful

There's definitely a lot of people who have some serious concerns about using blockchain for energy transactions

There's concerns about the electricity usage the computational costs that maybe this is going to wipe out

The cost savings you get from the reduced transaction costs. Maybe this is going to be too complicated for your average consumer

There's concerns about security and privacy

You know how much information do you want your neighbors to have about how much electricity you're using?

What if a company had that information does that change things?

So there's still a lot of open questions and technical questions that I'm very confident, you know, people will sort out over time

And so a bigger question

that's much harder to answer is is this the best idea like is this where we should be going with our

electricity system

And

So I want to talk a little bit about that about

These are some of my personal

Research interests about how do we figure out today how to set ourselves up for the best future?

And so

We've really only discussed one potential future in one

Regulatory and policy environment. And as you may recall the rules are really different depending on what state you live in and

So depending on where you are the rules about how the electricity grids

Operated who can participate and how they participate or going to be really different

And so there's not going to be a one-size-fits-all solution, you know

Not everyone is going to think a blockchain based micro grid is right for me

And so for example like thinking about some of these equity questions

You know

There might be people who can't afford the capital costs of these home energy management systems that they then also need to program

That's a lot of work

Setting up all your settings in what you want it to do

They might want to just know what their electricity bill is going to be and not have to worry about any fluctuation from markets

and so we need to make sure that

Low and middle income households in particular are able to engage in these futures and that we're not just setting it up for the elite

And

so one proposal for how to think about

These futures is from the National Labs through the Department of Energy

And so this walk jog run model is set up to try and reduce risk

because as I mentioned before the most important thing in the electricity system is

Make sure that it is super reliable and so in that sort of system. It's really hard to deal with

Sudden change. This is not a model that's set up to do disruptive change. It's about having a slow evolution

So for example right now we're at stage one. So we have really low distributed energy

Adoption we have aging infrastructure. We're still just trying to get reliability and resilience and efficiency in place

but eventually we'll get to stage two and that point we're jogging and

So the idea here is that we're going to have a little bit more

distributed energy resources

Adoption and at that point really gonna have to rethink

How the distribution grid works entirely. So right now the distribution grid is really focused on just delivering power

It's one job deliver power

but we really are going to need to think of it as a platform as something that's providing Grid services and

Ensuring that electricity is reliable and dealing with all of these

injections of power at different points in the network and

Then eventually even later we're going to get to stage 3 where we're running and the idea here is that we'll have really high

Distributed energy adoption and that's when we're gonna see really different

Utility business models, we're gonna see more local energy markets

It's going to be a really different world

And the idea here is that this type of transition?

Gives us time to get a new status quo at each step and this is what's going to make sure that we maintain

reliability in the system

So I want to take a step back and sort of talk about how I approach these types of things and

so my academic training is really focused on

Being able to quantify the human part of complex problems. And so I assume that for any complex problem

There's going to be human

organizational and technical

components to both the problem as well as the solution and

so the main way that I

Address this is using decision science. And any decision science project is going to really be focused on one or more of these three questions

So how should people make decisions you do normative analysis?

How do people make decisions with descriptive research and then how can we help people make better

descriptions and this is really looking at prescriptive interventions and

things like randomized controlled trials, which I'm going to talk about a lot right now and

so

As we go down this path

What I'm arguing is that we don't do a very good job of making sure that we have an evidence-based

strategy, we don't do a very good job of making sure that we're building a body of evidence to make decisions based on and

so I would argue that the best way to build that body of evidence is with experiments and

I don't mean experiments as in try it and see if it works

I mean randomized control trials and we should run them the way we were on medical trials

So this is kind of getting at one of those subtle differences between engineering and science

This isn't necessarily about testing it to see if it works. It's about building a body of evidence

And so I'm going to talk about two papers to really drive this point home on the importance of designing

scientifically valid experiments at this intersection of

Technology and policy and markets and so I'm going to be really focusing on consumer facing experiments because whenever you involve people

Things are more complicated and therefore more interesting

So it take a step back why are randomized control trials the gold standard

So the whole idea here is that you have a population of interest and then you randomly assign people to either the intervention group

Which might be receiving a programmable thermostat or the control group which would be receiving a regular old dumb thermostat

and so the idea is that you collect data and you measure outcomes and at that point you can test your

hypothesis that people who got the programmable thermostats are going to use less electricity and

You can make a causal statement

About their programmable thermostats because you randomly assign people into those two groups. So the whole idea is that

Any other reason for people to use electricity it's going to be randomly

Distributed between these two groups and so any change is going to just be because of the programmable thermostats

The other key piece here is the control group. And so

It's possible that because of the economy or something like that

People are going to reduce their electricity usage anyway

And so you want to be able to account for that when you're trying to estimate the effect of the programmable thermostats?

And

So, you know, maybe that sounds easy, but it's not

It's actually really complicated to run a really good

randomized control trial and so Alex Davis and colleagues at Carnegie Mellon University

Examined 32 publicly available pilots that estimated the effectiveness of three interventions to reduce

residential electricity usage and these included in-home displays dynamic pricing and

Automation like programmable thermostats. And so this was actually the research group that I was in when I was doing my PhD at Carnegie Mellon

And

So there's six types of bias that we know about for medical trials then we need to watch out for in randomized

controlled trials and so basically it gets down to

a

really poor randomization, and so if you

Have people actively volunteering to participate in a particular experiment

It's biased if they're assigned to an intervention or control group, that's not completely random

It's biased even some things that might seem sort of random like assigning people based on their birthday

Not random, there might be something systematically different about people who are born in June rather than November

and

so if people know that the other conditions and what the other conditions in the experiment are it's also going to be biased and

so these are the types of issues that we really need to be thinking about when we're designing randomized control trials and

so

Davis Alex Davis and his colleagues

looked at these 32 publicly available electricity pilots and they found that most of them were biased or

They weren't documented well enough to even be able to tell if they were biased

Which you know makes everyone pretty suspicious that they were biased and so one of the worst ones

Was volunteer selection and so in this case?

27 out of 32 of these studies used an opt-in design rather than an opt-out design

and so what this means is that they were only doing these experiments with people who

Volunteered and wanted to participate and those are the people who are most likely to benefit from the intervention

And so what's gonna happen is you're going to inflate your results?

and

So for example what they found was that after is that they use some statistical methods to estimate

the impact of the

Biased study design and they found that for peak reducing peak electricity use so that's the maximum amount of electricity

That a home uses

The results were roughly halved so they were still significant

But they were just smaller and the may the one that works the best was dynamic pricing with automation. And so that

People reduce their electricity usage by fourteen percent as opposed to the original study which estimated it at twenty five percent

Also looking at overall electricity use they found that most of the interventions that were tested the original studies found really small effects

But when they added the Corrections, they weren't statistically significant. There was no impact

I'm the only one that still remains standing was in home displays and so on they were significant

But they had a really small effect

So it dropped to three percent from five percent and this is really important if we're thinking about how to do cost-benefit analysis

Because if we are overestimating the benefit from these types of programs then

It's going to be really hard

To figure out how much cost to actually allocate to running them in the real world

Also company politics can get the way

When I was doing my PhD, we tried to work with a utility to run a randomized control trial looking at in-home displays

And we wanted to do an opt-out design because it's the gold standard

And we explained that oh, this would mean that we take a thousand customers. We'd send them in-home displays and we'd explain that

It's an experiment

And they can opt out if they want

But the utility was terrified to implement this they were really worried that they'd get terrible press

Because people thought that they were wasting money because they were sending in-home displays to people who didn't want or need them

and so what they ended up telling us was that you know, we

How about we tell you what we want to do and then you tell us how to do it as scientifically as possible

Obviously that's not a way to do good science

so we ended up not being able to work with them and we never ran that study and

So there's a lot of challenges

To kind of getting utilities on board with this notion that randomized control trials are the right way to go

And so

One of the challenges is even if you lay it out in this nice way where you explain that there's technology

Pilots and then eventually you involve you evolve to demonstrations where you engage

Consumers and I'll just point out that I'm not using the word pilots in this way

I'm using pilots for everything and I'm not gonna stop doing that because I showed you this slide

So one of one of the challenges is that you know

Sometimes the point has not doing a pilot has nothing to do with science in some cases

Utilities are just trying to keep their Public Utility Commission happy, you know, they just want to look busy and avoid changing the status quo

They have no intention of learning anything with these pilots in other cases

There's just a lot of confusion about who's responsible for deciding if it's good science or not

Like is it the public utility Commission's job like these are a bunch of lawyers

They don't they don't necessarily know what's good science

and what's not and so there's a lot of

Challenges associated with making sure that utilities are actually engaging with the right kinds of experts when they're trying to make these decisions and build

this body of evidence

So one other paper that I do want to mention is

Called Solarize your community. This is actually a public facing report, which I think is awesome and everyone should try and condense like

Six academic papers that they've written into a public facing report that they can actually share with people

And so this is by Ken Gillingham at Yale and Brian Bollinger at Duke University

and so what they were doing was that they

Saw that there were these solarized campaigns and so Solarize is basically when a city or town all gets together

And gets lots of people to adopt solar at the same time so that everyone gets a price discount

And so they were able to take advantage of this rollout happening in Connecticut. You can see there's a big cluster in Connecticut

To actually run randomized control trials and learn something about what's the best way to design a solarized campaign?

and

So they found that

Having a solarized campaign increased adoptions. So the Solarize campaign is the blue line and the

control and the non solarized

adoptions are the red line and the gray box is showing how long the solarized campaign lasted and so you can see that there's a

huge increase in the number of solar adoptions that happened at that time and that there was also a really sharp decrease in

The price that people were paying for those

installations and that that price decrease only

Lasted as long as the Solarize campaign lasted so there's a lot of incentive for people to participate

and

So they've tested a bunch of different variations to try and figure out you know

What is it about the solarized model that really makes it work, you know?

what's the core of it that matters and so ultimately what they found was that the choice model was the best approach and

So it had a competitive application so cities and towns are really motivated

They had resources available to devote to it

It lasted for twenty weeks which was enough time to kind of roll it out when they limited it to ten or twelve weeks

They actually increased administrative costs because it was just so much harder to get the word out that quickly

It had a tiered pricing structure

so as more and more people adopted the group discount that everyone got

Got got increased got higher and higher and so people were really motivated to get their neighbors and other people to adopt solar

So that they'd get all get a better price

But the key was that they had two to three installers

so introducing this small amount of competition was really valuable and they actually had the most

Adoptions and the lowest prices across all of the models that they tested and also that price decrease

lasted the longest after the solarized campaign ended and so this little adding just this little tweak of

adding some competition among the

installers had a huge impact and they never would have known that unless they had run all these randomized control trials and

So this has really gotten me thinking about you know, how can we do a better job of rolling out this information?

So we run these randomized control trials and then how do we make sure people actually get that information?

And so one thing I found out about was this whole concept called implementation science

And so it's something that's really mostly done in public health and it's basically this whole body of research

They have a journal they have a conference

To try and figure out after what happens after you do the randomized control trial

How do you once you figure out the best way to do something? How do you get everyone to do that?

How do you get all the doctors and all the hospitals to actually do that?

And so I think that there's an analogy here to energy that we need to think about how to do this for the electorate's

the electricity system

and

So I'm just you know spitballing some ideas, you know, I think that you know, we can do research on

Regulator and utility decision-making. It's something I'm interested in

We can aggregate the results of experiments and pilots and demonstrations and actually actively build this body of evidence

We maybe we should be training utilities and regulators and policy makers on what it means to do randomized control trials and why they're valuable

Wouldn't it be awesome if if utilities had a chief evaluation officer who's responsible for making sure that this stuff happened? That'd be awesome

and

So last I just want to leave you with a couple thoughts about you know, where you fit in

So we've talked about how the grids interconnected how we have this complex

Interplay between the regulatory market and Pauwels the environment

How there's these trends in decentralization electrification and digitalization that are driving a lot of trains

It's possible that blockchain base micro grids are our future

People are advocating for this walk jog run model to have this slow evolution in electricity system

But if we're doing that we need to make sure that we're running

Scientifically valid experiments and especially for customer-facing programs, even though that's very politically fraught and utilities are scared

Because most of the electricity pilots that are happening are biased and ironically we're actually going to waste more money in the long term

Running these biased experiments than if we just did it right from the beginning

And so the the real trick here is to use randomized control trials

whenever we're running rolling out programs to actually optimize the program design and

So what I want to leave you with is that you know, there's opportunities for you to engage with some of this

You know you can participate

like if you own your house like you can think about getting solar

If you can go to energy sage calm, this is a really great resource for figuring out if solar makes sense for you

You know, it's your electricity system. You can participate

Also advocate, you know, a lot of these discussion of these decisions are being made by policy makers and elected officials

So make sure that they know what kind of electricity system that you want, you know, make sure that you vote

It's always a good idea

If you are in the electricity space or you're thinking about getting into it, you know run experiments

It's really really important to make sure that we're building this body of evidence and sharing it

And then lastly I just want to emphasize the importance of increasing accessibility

There's a lot of opportunity to make sure that this transition is accessible

As particularly for low and moderate income households where they might not have the financial or just time

Resources to engage with all of this change and so, you know technology's not going to solve all of these problems

But it's definitely going to be part of the solution. So, thank you

For more infomation >> "The Future of the Grid: Policy, Technology, and Market Change" by Casey Canfield [PWLConf 2018] - Duration: 51:40.

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Ride & Bike - Duration: 1:02.

For more infomation >> Ride & Bike - Duration: 1:02.

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Rafael Nadal ● How To Become A Legend | HD [Sub ENG] - Duration: 1:14:00.

I wasn't able to do anything

I didn't play as well as the other days, like I wanted to play but...

I remember of the first ball I hit with Rafael

When I think he had 3 years old...

The relationship we have together is more than something usual

I was very confused at this moment,

I was wondering how this young man of 18 ranked 40th or 50th in the world, I was ranked higher than him

How can I be destroyed like that

Yes because it's the first tournament of Nadal here

And I think I came and I wanted to see him win

First of all congratulations to Rafael, very well played

And... Yes you can applaud him, he fought hard

The pressure I had inside was huge

I wanted so much to win that match last year against Nadal

Because I knew what it meant for my career and for me

And it's the same thing this year, I've more experience

We can say you are in second home here ?

I couldn't do what I wanted from the baseline,

I'm a bit sad of the way I played...

My parents always told me I had to finish my studies

But I loved to be coach

And I had also a tennis school in Manacor

And then Rafael came

So I left all my studies... to focus me on Rafael

The mental plays an important role when we meet one against the other, we faced so many times,

I could beat him on every surfaces and he dominated me several times on clay

And I think we go into our matches

By trying to give everything and hoping it's enough

So it's there we are today

I guess the elimination of Nadal yesterday

has changed a lot of things for you

in the way to approach this Roland Garros ?

I have so much respect for Rafa

He is not playing this season

at his usual level,

at the level we were used to see from him

But Rafa is always a big champion

and it's alway a pleasure to play against him

I felt well physically, I didn't have aches and I was ready

Today there were long rallies

but it wasn't decided on physical shape, it was mentally

I had few hesitations which change a lot my game, specially against a player like him

Even if I play my best tennis, at full strength without hesitations, I'm not even sure to beat him

And when he plays like today there is nothing more to say, I was dominated in every parts of the game

For more infomation >> Rafael Nadal ● How To Become A Legend | HD [Sub ENG] - Duration: 1:14:00.

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Final Warfare - New Best Android Game HQ - Duration: 6:14.

Final Warfare - New Best Android Game HQ

For more infomation >> Final Warfare - New Best Android Game HQ - Duration: 6:14.

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[Twitch] - Best Clips 2018 Q2 - Live HD - Duration: 3:47.

Die.

He was throwing a granade, that pig!

He was throwing a granade!

I mean, from today...

from today...

I'll run no more to loot people!

What that?

I'll do him...

Maybe I can throw him a granade...

He run over it!

Maybe I'm out of ammo... nope I've got them!

Eh?

I mean I killed one... ah I sat! But why?

Why I sat, boys? LOL!

I activated an emote without noticing it!

Help!

I forgot to turn on your streaming, Patcha...

Now I'll lose Twitch partner because of you... oh mother!

I'm gonna touch it!

What's that?

Oh c'mon!

Let's see falling temple...

It's Pisa temple!

We did Pisa temple!

Why?!

Light up again your torch, my love!

Because you cannot...

That's good! Let's test it now...

It even gave me achievement...

What a view!

Lake view...

Come here my love, you have to get achievement too...

Ground floor!

Elevator goes up!

Elevator goes down again, with no motivation...

Eh?

My love... if I'm making it go up... c'mon call it!

You call it again...

Elevator goes up!

Anyway it gave you achievement, right? Then you can go away!

Go, go, go away from my elevator!

Stay away!

For more infomation >> [Twitch] - Best Clips 2018 Q2 - Live HD - Duration: 3:47.

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« Mon Pays c'est l'amour »: L'album posthume de Johnny Hallyday bat des records en France - Duration: 2:45.

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Grande Fratello Vip, La Marchesa potrebbe lasciare il reality | Wind Zuiden - Duration: 3:35.

For more infomation >> Grande Fratello Vip, La Marchesa potrebbe lasciare il reality | Wind Zuiden - Duration: 3:35.

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STRAWBERRY WEEK There's no "must" in lust - Duration: 6:23.

For more infomation >> STRAWBERRY WEEK There's no "must" in lust - Duration: 6:23.

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DESCRIPTION DE LA VIE APRÈS LA MORT, vue par L'HYPNOSE RÉGRESSIVE - Duration: 49:54.

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La D'Urso contrattacca e a Domenica Live porta Paris Hilton. Domenica Live, Barbara D'Urso... - Duration: 10:43.

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(L'amour est dans le pré 2018) Samuel : Départ Précipité (15102018) - Duration: 3:19.

For more infomation >> (L'amour est dans le pré 2018) Samuel : Départ Précipité (15102018) - Duration: 3:19.

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Liam Payne - Depend On It - Duration: 2:53.

Liam Payne - Depend On It

Liam Payne - Depend On It

For more infomation >> Liam Payne - Depend On It - Duration: 2:53.

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Kidnapper Kesariya | Latest South Indian Action Movie | South Action Movies - Duration: 2:00:03.

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