In today's video we're going to do an analysis of some factors that will help tell
us where are in the market cycle and around when the market might crash.
As always if you want to learn more about the stock market, personal finance and entrepreneurship
then consider subscribing to Cooper Academy.
And to be more on the ball hit that notification icon.
So one of the most important measurements that we have to look at when figuring out
if the market is overpriced or a bubble type market is the Shiller P/E ratio.
This is a measurement recommended by Warren Buffets mentor Ben Graham.
And it tells us the return we'll get on the overall market based on the current price
levels.
So currently the Shiller P/E ratio is 34.242.
This means the US market is priced at a 2.92% overall return.
It doesn't take a genius work out that that's pretty low.
But when it comes to money we have to put it somewhere.
So we must compare our overall stock market return with the returns we can get in other
places where we put our money.
One option is just to leave it in cash where you will get a 0% return.
The other option is the bond market.
So the 10-year treasury note currently has a yield of 2.8%.
And this is considered a zero-risk investment because it is backed by the government.
They can always print more money to pay it back.
So if we compare these returns we can see that the stock market return is just higher
than the bond market.
But overall that's some pretty similar returns for 2 different investments with very different
risk profiles.
The 10-year treasury being pretty much 0 risk and the stock market pretty high risk.
So that's one of the measurements we can do.
Compare the different returns where we can put our money.
Remember there are advantages and disadvantages to the different types of investments.
Ok now I want to delve into some of the measurements that Ray Dalio uses when figuring out when
the market will crash.
Why Ray Dalio, because he's known as the market timing expert so to speak, that his
gig.
So one measurement that Dalio uses is the unemployment rate.
This is a very important factor to look into when seeing where we are in the market cycle.
Whenever the unemployment rate get's low that is a sign that we are nearing the end
of a bull cycle.
Let's look at the history of previous market crashes and what the unemployment rate was
doing when they occurred.
So I'll take you back to the stock market crash in January 1973.
The Unemployment rate had bottomed at 4.9%.
Then the black Monday crash in 1987, the unemployment rate was close to the bottom at 6%.
Then the dot-com bubble in March 2000 the unemployment rate was at the bottom of the
cycle at 4%.
Lastly the housing bubble crash in 2007 the unemployment rate was 4.7%.
So as you can see there's a noticeable relationship between a stock market crash and a low unemployment
rate.
This is because when unemployment get's low it means we can't stimulate the economy
much more with increased workers, meaning things will slow down.
So currently we're at an unemployment rate of 4.1%.
How low does it have to go.
That is one thing that we just don't exactly know.
But the thinking is that it will bottom out in the next couple of years.
Another very important measurement that Dalio loves is the 10 year treasury minus the 2
year treasury.
If this number is 0 or in the negatives it means people will be more inclined to put
money in for shorter periods.
They don't want to put their money in for long because they get less of a yield.
So again this slows down the economy.
Let's look at the relationship between this factor and historical market crashes.
So unlike the rest of the crashes, in 1987 the difference was higher than normal at 1.3.
In the March 2000 crash it was low at negative .47.
And in the dotcom bubble crash it was low at 0.54.
So generally speaking the lower it get's the higher the chance we have at the stock
market crashing.
But again there is not a set number that it needs to get to.
As you can see from previous crashes the numbers were different.
That's why no one can exactly predict when the market will crash.
It's just not possible.
But what we can do is look at certain measurements that tell us around when the market might
crash.
And from these certain measurements that I have just shown you we can say that there
is a good chance that the market will crash in the next couple of years.
Ray Dalio said there is around a 70% chance that the market will crash before the next
elections in 2020.
So those are some of the main factors that I am looking at when figuring out where we
are in the market cycle.
It appears we are getting towards the end of a bull market run.
We can still play in the stock market but just play a little closer towards the exit
doors.
In my next video I'm going to show you guys what the best investing billionaires are saying
in the current market and I'll also show you how they are preparing their portfolio's.
As always I hope this video was helpful.
If it was please leave a like to support the channel.
Oh also I'll leave some links in the description to show you where to access the data that
I used in this video.
Thanks guys and have a great rest of the day!
For more infomation >> Will The Stock Market Crash In 2018? 📉 (Analysis) - Duration: 5:09.-------------------------------------------
MINI 1.6 COOPER S CHILI xenon,navi,leer,panoramadak - Duration: 1:01.
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[TEASER] '백야/WHITE NIGHT'_short film 一 YULSIC - Duration: 1:07.
♪ Golden Slumbers — The Beatles
I need you...
Come back to me..
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Colossus vs Angel Dust | Deadpool (2016) Movie Clip - Duration: 2:52.
Superhero landing!
She's gonna do a superhero landing, wait for it!
Wooo! Superhero landing.
You know that's really hard on your knees. Totally impractical. They all do it.
You're a lovely lady, but i'm saving myself for Francis.
That's why I brought him.
I prefer not to hit a woman, so please...
Finish fucking her the fuck up!
Language, please.
Suck a cock!
Oh! Your... On the left. You are beautiful woman.
That is so sweet.
Thanks!
-------------------------------------------
Deadpool vs Ajax Final Fight (Part 2) | Deadpool (2016) Movie Clip - Duration: 2:31.
Shit! Shit! Shit!
Don't worry. I'm totally on top of this.
Ah! Damn it!
Maximum effort!
Thanks.
Just take it slow.
Yoo-hoo!
Oh, my God! That was so...
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Iron Man ARC REACTOR - STUNNING Hand Craft DIY Using the most Basic materials - Duration: 7:20.
Let's build one.
Project: Iron man Arc Reactor
Brains techknowlogy
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Deadpool vs Ajax Final Fight (Part 1) | Deadpool (2016) Movie Clip - Duration: 2:59.
Let's dance.
And by dance, I mean...
let's try to kill each other.
Fine. Fists.
Oh, sounds like your last Saturday night.
Asshole!
Hang in there, baby!
Wade! -I gotcha!
I got a plan. You're not gonna like it.
-------------------------------------------
Pizza Delivery Scene | Deadpool (2016) Movie Clip - Duration: 2:44.
Look, would it help if I slow it down for you?
I didn't order the pizza.
Is this 7348 Red Ledge Drive? Are you Mr. Merchant?
Yeah, the Mr. Merchant who didn't order the fucking pie!
Then who placed the call?
I did!
Pineapple and olive?
Sweet and salty.
The fuck are you?
The fuck you doing in my crib...
Is it burnt crust?
I... God, I hope not. Um...
Whoa... Man, look, if this is about that poker game.
I told Howie, I told him that...
Okay, uh, look, just take whatever you want.
Thanks.
Sir, before you do anything to him,
do you mind if I get a big tip?
Uh, Jeremy, is it?
Umm-hmm. Wade. Wade Wilson.
That is a no go on the tiperoo, Jer.
I'm not here for him.
I'm here for you.
Oh.
Okay, wow, dodged a big-time bullet on that one.
Not out of the woods yet.
You need to seriously ease up on the bedazzling.
They're jeans, not a chandelier.
P.S. I'm keeping your wallet. You did kinda give it to me.
Okay, just look, man, can I have my Sam's card...
I will shoot your fucking cat!
I don't really know what that means. I don't have a cat.
Then whose kitty litter did I just shit in?
Anyhoo, tell me something...
what situation isn't improved by pizza?
Do you happen to know a Meghan Orflosky?
Getting that right? Orflosky?
Orlovsky? Yeah? Good.
Because she knows you.
Jeremy, I belong to a group of guys
who take a dime to beat a fella down.
And little Meghan, she's not made of money,
but lucky for her...
I got a soft spot.
But I'm a... A stalker.
Threats hurt, Jer.
Though not nearly as badly as serrated steel.
So keep away from Meghan.
Cool?
Yes, sir.
Then we're done.
Wait. We are?
Yeah. We're totally done.
You should've seen your face.
I didn't know what to do. I was so scared.
Soft spot, remember?
You even look in her general direction again...
and you will learn in the worst of ways
that I have some hard spots too.
That came out wrong.
Or did it?
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【莎莎亂挑戰】莎莎沒靈感了! 無奈只好來吃蠟筆 - Duration: 5:56.
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Tesla recalls almost half the cars it ever built, as shares tank and Musk's billions shrink - Duration: 5:03.
Tesla is recalling almost half of all the vehicles the company has so far produced,
after corroding bolts that could lead to the loss of power steering has forced the company
to fix 123,000 of its Model S sedans.
The service action comes at a particularly inopportune time for the California carmaker.
Tesla's stock fell by one-third of its value in recent weeks as a result of a series of
problems including continued production problems with the Model 3 sedan, financial trouble,
and a fatal crash now being probed by federal regulators.
"Reality is setting in," said Joe Phillippi, head of AutoTrends Consulting, and a long-time
Wall Street automotive analyst, as he warned that the sharp decline in Tesla stock might
continue.
Time magazine reported that Tesla's billionaire CEO Elon Musk has lost 17 percent of his personal
fortune just in the last month.
Though Tesla shares rebounded slightly on Thursday, they began tumbling in off-hour
trading in the wake of the recall announcement.
According to an e-mail sent by the company to owners, 123,000 Model S sedans built before
April 2016 are equipped with steering bolts that could suffer from excess corrosion.
In some cases they may crack or completely fail.
"There have been no injuries or accidents due to this component," Tesla said in the
e-mail, though it did note that a failure could lead to a total loss of power assistance
to steering.
"This primarily makes the car harder to drive at low speeds and for parallel parking,
but does not materially affect control at high speed, where only small steering wheel
force is needed."
This marks the third time the Model S has been recalled since it first came to market,
though Tesla told NBC News that this latest recall is related to a part that is "manufactured
by a third party (which is also used by other carmakers.)"
The sedan and Tesla's Model X have been involved in several high-profile crashes.
That includes one in 2016 in which a former Navy SEAL was killed; federal safety regulators
put some of the blame on the car's Autopilot system.
Another incident potentially involving the semi-autonomous technology occurred earlier
this year when a Tesla slammed into a firetruck on a freeway near Los Angeles.
The National Transportation Safety Board is now also investigating a crash in which a
driver was killed in a Model X earlier this month in Mountain View, California.
Though a faulty highway barrier is suspected of playing a role in the latest fatal crash,
investors responded by sharply driving down the price of TSLA shares.
At the closing bell on Thursday, the price stood at $266.13, down from a 52-week high
of $389.61.
Overnight trading continued to trend downward after the steering wheel recall was announced.
There are plenty of other reasons for concern, said analyst Phillippi, notably including
the ongoing struggles Tesla has faced ramping up output of the new Model 3 sedan.
That product is critical to the long-term success of a company that has made money during
only two quarters since going public.
Until recently, Tesla was buoyed by the sort of stock valuation normally reserved for tech
companies like Google and Apple, but investors "were banking on increased earnings…once
they got their manufacturing system fixed.
It was going to be a no-brainer."
Additionally, reports began to surface from current and former employees who said that
what Musk last year called "production hell" at the Tesla plant in Fremont, California
has been made worse by serious quality problems with many of the parts and components needed
for the Model 3.
Then, earlier this week, the Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla burned through $3.4 billion
of a shrinking pot of cash last year, increasing investors' worries that it will either run
out of cash or be forced to stage another equity offer this coming year.
Musk has tried to maintain Tesla's lofty reputation by focusing on future plans, including
the electric Semi truck, pickup, and roadster models it is developing.
But the flood of bad news has put a serious tarnish on the brand just as key competitors
like Hyundai, Volkswagen, General Motors and others start bringing their own long-range
models to market.
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DRÔME : UNE ADOLESCENTE DE 16 ANS DÉCÈDE DES SUITES D'UNE MÉNINGITE - Duration: 5:48.
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MINI 1.6 COOPER D BUSINESS LINE Airco 17 Inch - Duration: 0:59.
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Volvo XC60 2.4D AUT(6) MOMENTUM NAVI/BLUETOOTH/PARK ASSIST - Duration: 0:54.
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Volvo XC60 2.4D AUT(6) KINETIC NAVI/PARK ASSIST V+A/17INCH - Duration: 0:59.
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Brigitte Macron victime d'actes de malveillance : son cabinet porte plainte pour ... - Duration: 2:11.
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Toyota Verso 2.0 D-4D Aspiration Navigatie-Cruise control-Lichtmetalen velgen - Duration: 0:58.
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Volvo S80 2.4D AUT(6) MOMENTUM 17INCH/NAVI/LEDER/PARK ASSIST - Duration: 1:01.
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Volkswagen Transporter PICK-UP 1.9 D 1.0 50KW DC (MOTOR DEFECT !) - Duration: 0:43.
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Cancer risks from coffee? Ten other unlikely ways coffee' might harm you! - Duration: 2:50.
Just how dangerous is a cup of coffee? We love a good cuppa at risk bites, so we
were rather dismayed when a Californian judge declared coffee companies in the
state would have to display a cancer warning label.
The problem is, when coffee beans are roasted, the chemical acrylamide is
produced. This is classified by the International Agency for Research on
Cancer, or IARC for short, as probably causing cancer. Thankfully though, things
aren't as bad as they sound. IARC, which is part of the World Health Organization,
assesses whether something has the potential to cause cancer, but not the
likelihood of cancer actually occurring. In other words, California's ruling could
be really bad news for coffee junkies; or it might just mean that your chances of
getting cancer from coffee are marginally less than winning the
national lottery! The trouble is, just providing information on the possibility
of something bad happening, and not saying anything about the probability, is
about as useful as a one-handed clap - not very! Nevertheless, seeing as California
has paved the way here, we thought we'd look at some other improbable ways that
coffee might kill, maim, or otherwise harm you; just in case. One: a sack of coffee
beans falling on your head. Two: being run over by a runaway hipster gourmet coffee
cart. Three: dowsing yourself in scalding hot coffee, because you didn't read the
label that said "caution hot coffee". Four: choking on a coffee bean. Five: choking on
a chocolate coated coffee bean. Six: insomnia madness from drinking too much
coffee. Seven: a fatal lack of concentration from drinking too little coffee. Eight:
getting balled out by a coffee deprived boss. Nine: asphyxiation from shoving coffee
beans of your nose -- and seriously do not do this! And ten: pigging out on donuts;
because, let's face it, what's the point of coffee without the carbs? Of course,
while any of these might possibly happen, the probability is rather low. Meaning
that, despite all the things that might happen when you go
for your morning cup of joe, you'll probably be okay.
The same goes for California's carcinogen label. Here, there's certainly
data to indicate that you might possibly get cancer from the acrylamide in coffee --
although you'd have to drink a heck up a lot of it, and you also have to balance
this against the health benefits of the drink. But the likelihood? That's a whole
other matter. In the meantime I'm off for a a cuppa...
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Мои страхи ♡ - Duration: 2:47.
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How do you describe this?(31) (Vocabulary Building) [ ForB English Lesson ] - Duration: 1:36.
Hi everyone!
Welcome to ForB's English lesson videos.
I'm Rianna and today, we're going to show you another video.
I'd like you to describe what he is doing in the video.
Let's take a look.
What is he doing?
He is blowing his nose.
He is blowing his nose.
When we blow, we send out air from our mouth.
Blowing your nose is sending out air through your nose.
Let's practice this sentence together.
Please repeat after me.
He is blowing his nose.
He is blowing his nose.
Wonderful.
When you are sick, please try not to blow your nose too hard.
Thank you for watching.
If you enjoyed this video, please like, share and subscribe.
See you.
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Pourquoi les hommes se suicident - Channel 5 News et le commentaire sous leur vidéo - Duration: 1:33.
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Iron Man ARC REACTOR - STUNNING Hand Craft DIY Using the most Basic materials - Duration: 7:20.
Let's build one.
Project: Iron man Arc Reactor
Brains techknowlogy
Subscribe and click the bell button
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Cake Style 2018 🎂Amazing Cakes Decorating Techniques 2018 🎂Most Satisfying Cake Style Video #30🎂 - Duration: 10:27.
Thank you for watching! Hope you enjoy & like it!
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Dancehall Mix [Gyal Segment] 2018 Ishawna, Dovey Magnum, Spice, Shenseea, Dexta Daps, Popcaan,& More - Duration: 40:52.
🔥New Dancehall Mix🔥That All Ladies Can Relate To💥 Subscribe For Exclusive Mixes.
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【Speedpaint】- Rin - Duration: 7:42.
Hi guys! It's been a while.
This is a bustshot commission for StarsConsume from DA
I added more feelings to this bustshot because I
felt like I wasn't doing that enough in my past commissions
It definitely made it much better.. Music is so helpful!
For lineart I tried to use my sketch tool so it
would create a thinner lineart effect
Drawing the hair was fun haha
The dark background tends to help me choose colors
In a way it's what determines the mood of the colors..and helps pick the colors you
intentionally want it to have. If that makes sense.
People tend to ask me about how to make your lineart neat and thin
Basically there can be a lot of things that can contribute to that
Like the brush/pen tool settings that you use.
There is Density, Min size, Quality, and etc adjustments.
There's also (for sai) a stabilizer that helps
control your lineart movement. The higher it is, the
more stable your lines flow. But it's all due to preference.
Here I tried a new coloring style for hair
I'm liking it but at the same time I don't.
I've been working real hard on my commissions
I will be adding more variety of choices!
So keep in check.. my commissions will be open by this coming week <3
I plan on making some tutorials soon..stay updated c:
Thank you for watching <3 ! Don't forget to like and subscribe
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13 bienfaits du jus de goyave - Duration: 8:54.
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Se couvrir ou rajouter des couvertures ? Comment dormir quand il fait froid - Duration: 8:48.
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MUAY THAI CHIANG MAI ADVENTURE - Duration: 7:37.
- Shin guards are on.
We're ready to do some sparring now.
Check this out.
(cheerful techno music)
Good afternoon, 19th of February, 2018,
three o'clock in the afternoon.
I'm walking to a Muay Thai class,
here in Chiang Mai
at a gym called Muay Thai Chiangmai Gym,
something like that.
So, I can't wait; I'm super pumped.
Class starts at 4:00 p.m.
Let's do this.
(upbeat techno music)
I have a slight problem, everybody.
I'm not at the class yet.
I can't get to the class, because I can't cross the road.
(cars driving by)
It's been like that for about 10 minutes.
Wish me luck.
(upbeat techno music)
Alright, super pumped,
about to start a class in about 30 minutes.
The 4:00 p.m. class here at Muay Thai,
the Chiangmai Muay Thai Gym, right here.
And I've paid 390 baht for a one-session.
(energetic techno music)
- [Instructor] One, two, three, four, five, six.
- Here we go.
(energetic techno music)
(impacts)
(cheerful techno music)
- [Instructor] One, two, three, four, five.
(cheerful techno music)
- That was good fun.
Shin guards are on.
We're ready to do some sparring now.
Check this out.
Guys got their shin guards on.
Ready, boys?
- No. (man laughs)
Fuck, yeah, we're ready, yeah.
- I like that, I'm gonna cut it right there.
- Canada's ready.
- What, bringing in the countries now, are we?
Alright.
(cheerful techno music)
Are we sparring each other?
- [Man] Yeah, um.
- I swear to God we were friends before this sparring.
- [Man] Now, it's your brother.
- [Brad] (laughs) Real brothers, blood brothers.
♪ I've been busy ♪
♪ Where you been ♪
♪ Stepping out, post online every now and then ♪
♪ Glad when the eighth hour ends ♪
♪ Only sad when you outta gin ♪
♪ I'm-a say it, I'm-a say it right now ♪
♪ That really don't sound like how to win ♪
♪ Mad that you stuck in a rut ♪
♪ Blaming the world when you fucking it up ♪
♪ Where'd you go, this a marathon flow ♪
♪ And trust me, you ain't running enough ♪
♪ Not up in the VIP ♪
♪ Work til they don't need to see ID ♪
♪ I know I wanna be notorious ♪
♪ Maybe MMA mixed with B I G like uh ♪
♪ Hitting the stage with a crown ♪
♪ The rest of y'all waiting to drown ♪
♪ The nobodies stay underground ♪
♪ That's why we aim for the clouds ♪
- Kyle, sparring buddy over here.
How do you feel, mate?
- Like I got knocked out.
- What, yeah?
He's being so polite.
- Australia wins, for sure.
- Oh, yeah, well, I think the jury's gonna
vote against that, I'm pretty sure.
♪ Ain't there a way I can stay with the crowd ♪
♪ Just making a lane till I'm paving the sound ♪
♪ My back's against the wall ♪
♪ Even if I fall I'm-a move it with a crawl ♪
- So, I'm about to shoot this guy.
He's allowed me to shoot him.
He's gonna be fighting on Thursday.
And I will just show you how this man does it.
(impacts)
♪ No way am I stalling it ♪
♪ I'm busy getting all of this ♪
♪ Hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey ♪
♪ Busy getting all of this ♪
♪ Hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey ♪
♪ Busy getting all of this ♪
- Alright, guys, that is it.
Hopefully you enjoyed Jake the machine, right over there.
Are you ready, mate?
- Yeah.
- Ready for Thursday? - Yeah.
- He's going in the ring on Thursday.
If I get a chance, if I'm in the area,
I'll go and shoot that, and I'll show you that.
But, now is the next class,
and they're all starting with just doing a light jog,
as you can see.
Alright, now for you guys,
just finished a two-hour session here
with my Canadian friend which is there.
(woman laughs) They're leaving now.
- See you.
- [Brad] This guy's a pro fighter, Kyle.
- Yeah, right.
- He is, you saw him in the fight, didn't you?
(laughter) Yeah, yeah.
- [Kyle] Hole in one.
- He's like the guy,
"I've who never played pool before in my life."
He's a pool shark, he's that guy.
He's that--
- I'm a ice hockey player.
I like doing things on the ice.
- Yeah.
- [Kyle] Hey, man, it's great meeting you.
- Alright, mate, take it easy.
- [Kyle] Hopefully, I'll see you around.
- Nice to meet you.
- You too.
See you on Soi Thai.
- [Kyle] Yes, see you.
- Alright, guys, so this is it, Chiangmai Muay Thai Gym.
A few bags over there, great session,
my first Muay Thai session in a couple months actually.
Nice ring,
kicking the ball around.
Less soccer, more Muay Thai.
That's it, had a great time.
So you'll find this place in the old city of Chiang Mai
and 400 baht, I think I mentioned that before,
maybe on Istagram,
if you wanna do a drop-in session.
And it was great, really, really good, nice sparring.
A couple of guys came in here for the first time,
tourists, just travelling through, just like me.
One of the most highly rated places to train at
here in Chiang Mai, and it's, people are relaxed,
been training in, down at Soi Thai in Phuket.
Even little kids train here.
Look at that, that's cool, huh?
That's really awesome.
They could probably kick my ass.
That's it, so hope you enjoy.
I'm gonna head off now, and gonna get a massage.
Might even tune you in on some bonus footage
of me getting a little Thai massage here.
And that's it, guys.
Hope you enjoy the video.
I might be back tomorrow, ciao.
♪ But you petty, you're free falling ♪
♪ Everyone round here obsessed ♪
♪ Can't get with that, don't be my friend ♪
♪ Shift I'm clicking up three ♪
♪ Never bogged down I'm digging up heat ♪
♪ Spraying the facts, done aching to rap ♪
♪ Run train on the track, we picking up steam ♪
♪ Please, home of the lame with a dream ♪
♪ Now I make cake every day of the week ♪
♪ Mind on the cash, where you finding me at ♪
♪ I never lose sight where I'm aiming to be ♪
♪ And I go where the view might be ♪
♪ Straight to the top 'cause I do my thing ♪
♪ Very selective for who I bring ♪
♪ With a few on the team that's two times three ♪
♪ Don't half ass, need the whole amount ♪
♪ And don't throw me a bone if it's gonna bounce ♪
♪ Look at the date I'm older now ♪
♪ But I'm way too busy to be slowing down ♪
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Review/Análisis de MIRROR en Español | NotiAnime! - Duration: 5:45.
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フランス語会話 簡単・自然なフランス語vol.34 がんばります - Duration: 0:47.
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Ferrari 488 2019 | 2019 Ferrari 488GTO Spied Honing Its Superiority - Duration: 3:38.
2019 Ferrari 488
Ferrari 488 2019
2019 Ferrari 488 Review
2019 Ferrari 488 Features
2019 Ferrari 488 Steering Wheel
2019 Ferrari 488 Cabin
2019 Ferrari 488 Engine
2019 Ferrari 488 Top Speed
2019 Ferrari 488 Exterior
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