(instrument tuning) (bell ringing)
- Conventional estimates provided by both the Pew Foundation
and also the Center for Migration Studies
suggest that that number is a little over 11 million.
And those figures are arrived at via surveys,
where people are actually questioned as to whether or not
they were born outside of the United States
and whether they are citizens.
What we have done is something quite different.
We have not administered surveys,
rather we have collected both operational data
such as deportations and visa overstays
and demographic data such as
death rates and immigration rates,
and combined these using a demographic model
that follows a very simple logic,
which is that the population at some point in time
is equal to that whatever that initial population was
plus everyone who came in minus everyone who goes out.
It's that simple.
That's essentially what the model does.
We discover that the survey-based result
that there are 11.3 million undocumented immigrants
seems to fall far short.
We have a conservative estimate that says
the number is at least 16.7 million
and over one million different scenarios
accounting for all of the variability
and the various parameters that we need for this model.
On average, we're estimating something like 22 million
undocumented immigrants in the United States.
- The main two sources that we used
that other people didn't have access to,
one was the number of arrests at the border,
because that's one of the ways we calculate in-flows,
and so the border patrol started getting fingerprints
from people who were arrested at the border
from year 2000, and they started
doing it more systematically from 2005.
So the data didn't exist that much beforehand.
And the other one was the number of people
who overstayed their visas,
because they also become undocumented
after their visa expires.
And in 2015 was the first time
that such data was actually collected
by the Department of Homeland Security,
and it's big, because there's like 50 million people
coming in each year, it's hard to track
how many people are coming in, leaving,
and they didn't have the capability until 2015
to actually measure that number.
- We do estimate that the number
of undocumented immigrants in the United States
is substantially higher than maybe people thought before,
maybe as much as twice as high as previous estimates.
But it's also important to understand
that the increase in numbers happened
in the 1990s and the first part of the 2000s,
and since about 2008, the numbers have been growing
much, much more slowly,
and it seems like it's a more stabilized system
as far as how we're controlling border access and such.
So we wouldn't want people to walk away from this research
thinking that suddenly there's a large influx happening now,
it's really something that happened in the past
and maybe was not properly counted or documented,
and we're looking at a situation now
where there's a large pool of undocumented immigrants
in the United States, but most of them
clearly would have been here for a while,
and we're not seeing that number
increasing very dramatically.
- One other thing that we observed in the study
was that the trajectory of the population,
so the population, how it rises as Jonathan said,
it increases to 2008 and then it flattens,
it's the same trajectory for our estimate
and the ones that existed before,
it's just that we're always higher than them,
so the trajectory is the same,
we see the same patterns happening,
but you have a higher number and it goes back
to what Ed said
about the undercount of the hidden population,
it shows that they are undercounting.
They are capturing part of this population,
but not the whole population.
- This paper is not oriented towards politics or policy.
I want to be very clear.
This paper is about coming up with a better estimate
of an important number,
and we're really trying to keep away in this paper
from making any statements about how
that could or should be used,
it's just a paper to help the debate be organized
around some better information,
which in my opinion, is a good thing to do.
I think the debate should always be centered
around the best information we can develop,
around numbers.
Of course, it's going to get pulled and tugged
in many ways, but our purpose here
is to provide better information.
- You can imagine people who are very opposed
to immigration in the first place
making an argument that says,
"see, the number is twice as large,
"that shows you that the earlier administration
"really messed up.
"They said that they were securing the borders,
"but they didn't,
"so we need to be more draconian,
"because twice as many people came in
"as we thought."
One of the most common arguments
in favor of a tougher immigration policy
is that undocumented immigrants
are coming with a lot of criminality.
You hear stories about MS-13 and things of this nature.
But whatever the crime rates have been
in the past up until now,
if you ask yourself what was the crime rate
among undocumented immigrants,
you have the same number of crimes,
but now it's spread over twice as many people
as was believed before.
Which right away means that that crime rate
among the undocumented immigrants
is essentially half whatever was previously believed.
For more infomation >> French Toast | French Toast machen | Armer Ritter. Armer Ritter Rezept - Duration: 4:37. 
For more infomation >> Volkswagen Golf 1.0 TSI 116PK DSG | Navi - Duration: 1:12. 
For more infomation >> Kia cee'd 1.6 CRDi GT-Line met Navi, Pano, Climate en 7jr garantie - Duration: 1:03. 
For more infomation >> Opel Corsa 1.4 16V 90PK ONLINE EDITION 5DRS - Duration: 1:12. 
For more infomation >> Kia Stonic 1.0 T-GDi ComfortPlusLine Navigator - Duration: 1:06. 
For more infomation >> CRYSIS 3 - 10.BÖLÜM NASIL OYNANIR? - Duration: 13:16. 
For more infomation >> Food trucks to spice up UH Homecoming - Duration: 3:41. 
For more infomation >> TIN TỨC VIỆT NAM MỚI NHẤT TRONG NGÀY 22/09/2018 - THỜI SỰ HÔM NAY | TIN TỨC 24H MỚI NhẤT HÔM NAY E4U - Duration: 25:47. 
For more infomation >> GSA C-Ops: Eye Placement Tips, Part 1 - Duration: 2:13. 
For more infomation >> The Purge (TV Series) | S 1 Ep 3: Jenna And Rick's Deal Quickly Goes South (2/5) | on USA Network - Duration: 1:19. 
No comments:
Post a Comment