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We're just beginning to glimpse
the bare outlines of a new economic system
entering onto the world stage.
This is the first new economic systém to emerge
since the advent of capitalism and its antagonist socialism in the early 19th century.
It's a remarkable historical event.
It has long term implications for every one of us our children and our grandchildren.
This new economic system is the collaborative commons.
And what's triggering this shift to a new economic paradigm a collaborative commons economic system
is something called zero marginal cost.
Marginal cost the cost of producing an additional unit of a good and service after your fix costs are covered.
The prospect of a technology revolution so extreme in its productivity
that it can reduce those marginal cost to near zero across the value chain
making goods and services essentially priceless
nearly free abundant and beyond the market exchange economy.
Then this zero marginal cost phenomena went on to invade the entire information goods industry.
Millions of consumers became prosumers
and they began producing their own information goods.
If you take a look at the newspaper industry, magazines, book publishing and the recording industry
they've never come back from zero marginal cost.
Our economists have thought well we think there's a firewall here.
And that is even though more and more information goods are heading toward near zero marginal cost in virtual worlds
that they will not cross the firewall into the physical world of brick and mortar goods and services.
No longer.
What's happening now is that the communication internet is now expanding to an Internet of Things.
A physical internet that allows us to go from the world of bits to the world atoms.
And when we have these three internets
embedded in one system - a communication internet that's interacting continually with an energy internet
and a transport and logistics internet in one platform -
this Internet Of Things allows us to begin moving near zero marginal cost from information goods to physical goods.
By 2020 IBM says we'll be at 30 billion sensors
and a recent forecast study a few months ago says that by 2030
we will have a 100 trillion sensors
connecting everything with everyone in one global neural network.
When we move from the internet to the Internet of Things
and we move from bits to atoms
we begin to see a completely new economic model that can get us to near zero marginal cost
in the production and distribution of physical energy and physical products.
Anyone of millions of prosumers will be able to increase their productivity
dramatically reduce their marginal cost
and produce, consume and share their own physical energy and manufactured goods with each other
just like we now do with information goods.
The big wild card here is food and water and climate change.
Because if we can't address climate change and we continue on this road,
if we can't produce food and don't have access to water in a reliable fashion
everything I'm telling you is derailed.
This new system is already in place in Europe. Let's take energy.
The moment you put up a solar panel on your building
or a wind turbine on-site, even before you pay back the fixed cost - and that's usually 3 to 8 years so it's not a long time.
Immediately though your marginal costs are near-zero
because the sun off your roof is free. The wind off the side of your building is free.
The geothermal heat coming up from under the ground is free.
Your garbage converted in a bioconverter to energy in your kitchen, it's all free.
And millions of small players had joined together in cooperatives
small and medium-sized businesses, homeowners. They're generating the new electricity
The Internet Of Things is designed to be distributed, collaborative,
peer-directed and it scales to lateral economies of scale.
Then let's take 3D printed products.
We now have several hundred thousand hobbyists, thousands of small and medium-sized startup companies,
that are printing out their own 3D printed products.
And they're attaching their 3D printing operation, at least in Europe,
into this new Internet Of Things, this third Industrial Revolution.
You go up on the Internet, you download your software - it's all free, open source,
then you use for your feed stock
recycled plastic, paper or even using sand and gravel and melting it down at near zero marginal cost.
Then they're powering their 3D printing factory with green energy from their energy internet,
that's generated at near zero marginal cost.
Then they're marketing their products on global websites with very little advertising cost,
you just pay a short fee, low marginal cost.
And then we're just beginning to put in the logistics internet.
You'll be able to power your vehicle to send your 3D printed product
to market with your own green electricity from the energy internet,
and the electric vehicles in a few years from now will be printed out.
The first printed vehicle now exists in Canada. It runs on solar.
We'll have driverless vehicles that can move across the system at will near zero marginal cost.
This is a revolution.
The question becomes this.
If millions then hundreds of millions of people can begin to produce, consume or share
their own information goods, energy and a lot of their manufactured goods at near zero marginal cost,
making them nearly free and beyond the exchange model of the capitalist market,
what kind of new economic system do we have to envision to organize the world
the one that I'm laying out here?
It's the social commons.
What's happening now is the social commons, which is a venerable institution
that we rely on for education institutions that are non-profit,
health services, day care centers for our children,
assisted living for the elderly,
environmental organizations,
cultural, sports, arts, it goes on and on.
If they were eliminated and we just had the marketplace,
we would not have much of a life on the planet.
The social commons is ignored by economists
because it doesn't create finance capital. It creates social capital.
But it's a big revenue player.
What's making this social commons now more relevant than any time in the past
is this Internet Of Things.
Because the Internet Of Things is a general purpose technology platform
that's designed to be the technological soulmate of the social commons.
The whole design is to be distributed,
collaborative, scales latterally, not vertically
and it rewards collaboration across these lateral networks.
It creates a sharing community.
If millions and millions of people are producing and sharing their own energy
and 3D printed products and information goods, they're going to need less income,
at zero marginal cost.
They're still going to need employment?
If the marketplace doesn't need them because we can produce the energy and the products,
you know in the marketplace with just high-technology,
where will you get the employment?
In the social commons. The social commons creates social capital
human beings with the other human beings, creating communities - cultural, sports, arts, wellness, health, quality of life.
Those are the more important employments. Making widgets is not as intellectually challenging and motivating to the your mind,
as it is trying to create a sense of human community,
a sense of transcendence and sense of finding meaning in the world
Last thought.
We can get to nearly free energy.
We're already there, nearly free goods and services, but without food and water we don't survive.
And we don't know, if we can even feed people and provide water for people,
how do we repopulate millions of people in the western part of the US in 30 years.
So... climate change is the elephant in the room.
What's important to acknowledge here is that the
third Industrial Revolution, this Internet Of Things allows us to move quickly out of fossil fuels.
And have millions of people begin to produce and share their own green energy.
And this Internet of Things, because its entire purpose is to increase efficiencies to reduce marginal costs
it means it shows us how to use less resources more effectively.
So we don't put a big burden on the planet that we live in.
So we have young people here not only sharing information goods and energy now and 3D printed products,
but so we have car sharing and bike sharing and now we're sharing apartments and homes and clothes and tools and toys.
So we have a generation that's beginning to believe it's not about ownership, it's access,
and if more people share what they have, less has to be produced.
It does have a negative impact on GDP
but it has a positive impact on quality of life,
and that's the way to measure a good economy.
It isn't just technology. What it does is it democratizes the economy.
And hopefully you'll be in a world in 2050 that won't be the 1% or the 99%.
It'll be a shared economy, a sustainable good quality of life,
where no one's left behind. Now is it Utopia? No.
We need to change the human narrative.
We need a new story for the human race to go with the technology.
We have to move from geopolitics to biosphere consciousness in one generation.
Everything we do,
intimately impacts some other human, some other ecosystem,
some other species on this Earth.
We've got a young generation here that's beginning to see we live in one indivisible community, the biosphere.
So I'm guardedly hopeful.
And if we can dramatically increase efficiencies,
reduce our marginal cost, and that means using less resources more effectively and taking a less burden on the planet,
we may get to a better world by mid-century.
You need to help lead this, so we have a chance of rehealing the planet
and creating a future for our children.
"Translate: Jan Gregus; Timing: Petr Taubinger"
"Start/End: 06.07.2015/14.07.2015; Update: 16.07.2015 14:30"
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