Following a raft of technical tests by the IAF, the Manmohan Singh government has shortlisted
the Eurofighter consortium's Typhoon and the French-made Dassault Rafale for a multi-billion
dollar fourth generation fighter deal.
New Delhi will almost certainly come under intense pressure to review its decision.
Less than six months ago, President Barack Obama described the growing relationship between
his country and India as "one of the defining and indispensable partnerships of the 21st
century."
India's decision to pick European-made jets to equip its frontline combat jet fleet instead
of United States-manufactured competitors has led more than a few to argue that the
relationship has already hit a dead-end.
New Delhi will now have to determine which of the two contenders it will choose – and
finance could play a key role.
The Eurofighter is likely to charge some $125 million apiece, which means the initial purchase
of 126 jets will cost India $15.75 billion, and a likely final order of around 200 aircraft,
$20 billion.
The Rafale is likely to be pegged around $85 million apiece.
Though the Grippen would have cost around the same as the Rafale, the F-16IN and FA-18
would have come at around $60 million each, and the MiG-35 a relatively modest $45 million
– though, given problems with its engine, the overall life-cycle costs of the Russian
jet may not have been much lower than its U.S. competitors.
It is imperative, though, that the decision is made fast.
Back in 1969, the IAF determined that it needed 64 squadrons, 45 of them made up of combat
aircraft, to defend the country.
India's economic situation, however, meant it could build only 45 squadrons, 40 of them
made up of combat jets.
Even that meant it retained an almost 3:1 advantage over Pakistan through much of the
1980s.
In the years since, though, the en bloc obsolescence of aircraft like the MiG-21, MiG-23 and MiG-25
has meant the IAF's edge has blunted: Pakistan today has 22 squadrons of combat jets, or
some 380, to India's 29 squadrons, or 630 fighters.
Pakistan, moreover, has received new jets from the U.S., as well as the JF-17 from China,
and a slew of advanced radar and missiles.
Its air defence capabilities are due to be enhanced with four Swedish SAAB-2000 jets
equipped with Erieye phased-array radar, and Y8 anti-electronic warfare platforms from
China.
Even as India's advantage over Pakistan diminishes, it has China to consider – not because a
war is probable, or even plausible, but because militaries must plan and be prepared for worst-case
scenarios.
For much of its history, China's People's Liberation Army Air Force had a huge air inventory,
numbering over 5,000 aircraft, but over three-fifths of this consisted of obsolete MiG-19 second-generation
fighters.
But in recent years, China has moved towards becoming a genuine aerospace power: by 2020,
the PLAAF will have more fourth-generation fighters than the entire IAF fleet.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's government will almost certainly come under intense pressure
to review its decision.
It would do well to accept the expert assessment of those who understand its combat aviation
needs the best – the women and men who may or may not, one day, have to fly them into
danger.
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