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Cold Sweat | TVS4 Studio - Duration: 43:18.I do not know what he's got, Ethan is strange, I'm worried.
He tells me as before, he tells me he hears voices...
the scenery changes...
I can not hear anything, I can not see anything, I can not help.
I'm afraid.
Come and get it, there is no other way.
They will come to get it tomorrow morning.
I'm doing this for his good.
Do not worry, Ethan! They will take care of you.
You are happy now ?
Slut !
Slut ! Forgive me Ethan.
Manoir d'ombre noire
George : Ethan, i'm finding an interesting place.
I would like to tell you more but i ran out of batteries.
Do you know the abandoned office 2F ?
Ethan : Yes, i know it, it's not far from where i live, why?
George : There is a key of the place i said.
Coming in. It's opened and bring the keys.
Ethan : I can do that but you talk about wich place?
George : I will tell you when you will have the keys.
I ran out of batteries, call me again when you arrive in the office
Ethan : Hello ? Pff...
Ethan : I'm going out mom.
Natasha : I do not care, you're tall, you do what you want.
Are you going with George?
Ethan : Yes, he found a place to explore for my blog...
Natasha : It's good. Be careful not to hurt yourself
I do not have cash for the hospital.
Ethan : Do not worry, we'll be careful.
Natasha : Hm ... Oh, there's apple pie in the fridge.
Ethan : No, thanks, I'm not hungry, I got up late and...
Natasha : Oh! Screw you !
No one wants any of my pies, what's so bad about my pies ?
Ethan : Nothing, they are delicious, I'm not hungry.
Natasha : Ok, ok, ok.
Bye bye...
Ethan : See you.
Grandfather : She pissed you off to taste her apple pie ?
Ethan : Oh no, no. Hm... I...
Grandfather : Ah ! You do not have to justify Ethan, I can understand.
I fell into his trap, I eat one and...
Oh...
Holy sky ! I had diarrhea for 5 days :
anus, cracked.
Natasha : I heard!
Ethan : Sorry for you, take care of yourself.
Grandfather : Yeah..
Ethan : yeah, George, it's me. i'm in front of office...
The window is opened ?
George : Already? Coool!
You don't need to go out the window,
come from the door. it should be unlocked..
Ethan : Ok, it works !
Are you sure the key is really inside ?!?
George : Of course, you can trust to your friend George.
Tonight you will explore a abandoned hotel.
Ethan : What..euh..What, wait, wait ?!
Damn it !
It's cold here.
The keys !
Hop !
Go, I'm leaving.
George, it's good, I have the keys.
George : Well, yes ... You have the keys, I told you they were inside.
Meet me at Willow Creek Park.
Ethan : You told me about a place abandoned earlier, a hotel to be precise.
I would like you to tell me a little more.
George : Exactly, meet me at the park.
The hotel is right outside, and you have the keys to enter.
Ethan : Ok, are you in the park there?
George : Yes, and i've cold, so, speed up please.
Ethan : I hope it's worth a look his hotel.
Ethan : So what do you need to know?
George : The hotel has been abandoned for a long time.
Recently, Willow Creek Town Hall plans to restore it to a museum.
The hotel was built in 1961 by Louis Decerois,
a renowned architect at the time.
It was built for the rich and noble family, Giovanni.
On gave him the name, Hotel Giovanni, logical ? *Laugh*
Don't know anything about the Giovanni family,
but what I do know is that something bad happened.
It seems that Gustave Giovanni murdered his wife,
Countess Giovanni and all the servants present in the hotel.
He was found the next morning by the police, hanging in the room of his daughter...
who is 12 years old.
Ethan : Oh, it's horrible.
But why hang in her daughter's room?
George : No idea, they did not say anything about this little girl.
Ethan : But where do you get all this information?
George : On Simpedia ! Think a little Ethan !
Ethan : Charming story, what if we went there?
Hôtel Giovanni
George : Here we are: Hotel Giovanni.
Go ahead, I'll join you,I want to see what's in this building.
Ethan : Ok.
George : Whore ! Are you going to open ?
Ethan : Calm down ... Do not force like that.
Great, it was missing all that.
He touched what, him
What a mess...
Why close here ?
It's crazy, it looks like the walls caught fire.
Ouuuh... It's cold.
But, it's the same here.
What could have happened here ?
He finally opened it, this door. *Laugh*
Ouhouhouh ! You are not beautiful!
It's not even worth crossing.
I will fall to 100%.
I'm intrigued, I'd like to know what's on the other side.
It's inaccessible, why?
I'm leaving.
Whore ! It was what !
There is someone ?
No, I did not dream, there was someone. I'm sure.
No, no, no, do not let me go.
There was a doll here.
Is this a joke ?
It stinks of shit!
Whore ! But how did she get there?
I missed it and did not see it. It can only be that.
Yes ?
George : Ethan ? Are you still in the hotel ?
Ethan : Yeah ! There are strange things happening.
George : Leave the hotel immediately!
I have just found a paper listing some of the employees' testimonies
It's scary.
Ethan : Ok, ok. Do not tell me what it is written. I arrive.
I leave this place.
Oh no. It starts again.
It's not real Ethan, it's not real.
It's not real.
What do you want me, doll ?
Oh, no...
I...
I remember this place.
Why here !
Jenny...
Almost 14 years have passed, and...
I'm coming back here.
Ok.
Courage, Ethan.
Looks like others have come.
I hope to be alone...
though...
That's right, I'm in another reality.
What could have happened to make the hospital look like this?
Up, padre.
Asylum. Yes, it was a asylum once.
What is happening ?
Damn it !
Oh, whore.
Ok.
I know that.
Hush, not a sound.
What ?!
No, no, no. What to do !
You are in my mind!
It's not real, it's not real, it's not real, it's not real, it's not real...
IT'S NOT REAL !
Do you want me to follow you, doll?
Okay, guide me to the exit.
???
??? : Instead of running away.
You go deep into my world.
You love evil, do not you?
Little naughty.
Ethan : What is this ?
??? : And that Ethan, is it real?
Ethan : What ?
??? : He has sounded the hour !
Time to drag these bastards on a leash!
Dance and sing my faithful.
Because tonight, the hotel Giovanni, opens its doors!
*Laugh*
??? : You let me in.
Ethan : Ok, i'm leaving.
George !
George : Look, there is a strange drawn symbol and there are strange words
I do not understand.
Ethan : Let me see.
Hm...
I think I have seen this symbol already.
George : Really ?
Ethan : Hotel.
Get out.
He's here.
Burn.
Indeed, it's scary.
I suggest we come back to clear this up.
George : You know something ?
Ethan : I will explain to you.
Manoir d'ombre noire.
Ethan : What is he doing?
Natasha : Earlier, he saw an ad that was on TV,
it was talking about traveling to Las Vegas.
Except that he thought he would go to Las Vegas
This jerk did not understand the announcement, suddenly, I do not know how to tell him that he does not go to Las Vegas
There he learns English. What a moron.
Ethan : Oh, i see.
Grandfather : My english is the best of the world.
Natasha : You see, he learns English, he did not understand this jerk.
George : *Laugh*
Natasha : There isn't « LAS VEGAS », idiot.
Grandfather : Hey ! it's me who raised you, respect a little the elders.
Natasha : i don't care.
George : What do you want to tell me ? You were weird earlier.
Ethan : How tell you ?!
George : Let me guess, it's happening again ?
Ethan : Yes..except now, it's not usually like this.
Before my attack arrives, i seen a little girl in the upper floor of hostel.
I panicked because i thought i wasn't alone in this place.
I left the room and i came in the toilet.
Before you called me, i seen…a weird doll.
It looked like she tried to lead me.
At the moment, i was afraid.
I didn't understand i was doing an attack since i begun in the hostel.
There is a present evil, a demoniac thing.
I got the impression this thing talked me for that matter.
George : Hm... Totally freaks out.
Normally, when you have this…
the people you see don't talk with you.
You said me you was like invisible for them.
Ethan : Yeah…that's true.
It did
That's not all, i found myself in my hospital bedroom.
You know, about the psychiatric hospital of Willow Crick when i was a kid.
George : Damn it !
But everybody knows this hospital went bankrupt and is closed.
Ethan : Well, i guess anyone or something was opened because there is really an evil who exists.
The creatures failed to attack me.
You know, theses zombie nurses i drew often.
George : Yeah, i see what do you talking about but you said me if you didn't make noise, she couldn't see you.
Ethan : I got your call and they woke up.
Usually, i don't hear what people says me in the reality and less the sounds.
I don't understand.
I was afraid and i'm convinced myself it wasn't real, i yelled it and everything stopped at that moment.
George : Do not forget your camera.
Hôtel Giovanni.
You follow me for a long time.
I would never know how to thank you for your support.
I, I did so much urban exploration ...
I have been to places in search of an answer.
The why of how...
And it never gave anything.
You know, however, that I am not like the others.
But that did not stop you from supporting me more.
You knew how to understand and accept my psychological disorder.
And together, we have found a community that continues to grow.
Today, I go to a place different from others.
I will not say where it is so we do not come looking for me.
What can I tell you ...
It's really strange things going on.
There is a huge demonic source that is denouncing this place.
I went there a little earlier in the evening and I experienced some really terrible things.
I have, I have seen, the Evil with my own eyes.
Paranoia, illusion ... I do not know.
I do not know if it was real or not.
This thing was talking to me...
They talk to me all ...
are...
They are all in my mind !
The poor unfortunate, I can not help you.
Wait.
I can.
I can help.
I'll help.
I will go in and guide you?
Sorry.
Really sorry.
The... Death dances around me.
Everything is dead.
I'll let you know. Take care of yourself.
Hello everyone, it's Ethan.
I am currently inside the hotel Giovanni.
There are really strange things happening.
The building is a victim of an hantise that I can not explain.
See for yourself.
The decor has changed. I'm not crazy, look!
I move slowly.
The whole world must know.
I will take some pictures.
I filmed that.
I'm not terrified or surprised, I'm used to it.
I've lived this since I was a child.
Now you understand why I'm delirious ?
Which doors open?
Randomly, this one.
It looks like the hotel is restoring itself, progessively.
It's like a return to the past.
What do you have to say?
Blood ... blood again.
You're not crazy, Ethan.
Now you have all the elements that prove that this hotel is haunted.
I must be able to leave. I have to publish this video.
??? : We will not go to the wood, the laurels are cut.
Do you remember that song Ethan?
Your mother's drunkard sang it to you.
While you were drinking milk.
Ethan : I have a camera. I film everything I see, we hear you!
Who are you ?
What do you want from me ?
What do you know about me? Answer!
Why do you press on me?
??? : To be harsh? Little asshole, it's you and you alone who stuck to my shoe like a miserable dog poop.
Ethan : The video will be online, thousands of people will hear and see everything that happens here.
??? : The only thing they will see is your little fragile body, flat on the ground, mouth open!
Ethan : Are you holding back all these people?
Who are you ?
??? : Your worst nightmare.
Ethan : The exit !
??? : Where are you going?
Two doors, Ethan.
One leads you to the exit, and the other ...
*Laugh*
Chosen well ... You are only entitled to one chance.
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Selena Gomez stuns by going braless in sultry new shoot for billboards woman of the year Selena Gomez 25
Has been named billboards 2017 woman of the year
But she's more like the woman of the decade or century in our minds
Just take one look at this devastatingly sexy new pic
Which has Elle bearing her decolletage in a tight suit jacket and pants the beautiful shot comes courtesy of celeb fashion
photographer Ruben a Feniger and stylist Kate Jung Joos sells outfit
dark lipstick and a dramatic smoky eye paired nicely with South Center parted hair
Which was styled in a wet look so good the wolf singer will be presented with the woman of the Year award at the annual
women in music dinner and awards gala the Ray Dolby Ballroom in Los Angeles, California on November 30th
And we can't wait not only is Selena soaring on the charts
But she continuously inspires young women everywhere to be authentic give back and to not be afraid to use their voice
president of The Hollywood Reporter billboard media group john amato said in a statement
She is never afraid to speak her mind and has used her platform to advocate for the needs of others
We are thrilled to be able to honor her as our
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Cold Sweat | TVS4 Studio - Duration: 43:18.I do not know what he's got, Ethan is strange, I'm worried.
He tells me as before, he tells me he hears voices...
the scenery changes...
I can not hear anything, I can not see anything, I can not help.
I'm afraid.
Come and get it, there is no other way.
They will come to get it tomorrow morning.
I'm doing this for his good.
Do not worry, Ethan! They will take care of you.
You are happy now ?
Slut !
Slut ! Forgive me Ethan.
Manoir d'ombre noire
George : Ethan, i'm finding an interesting place.
I would like to tell you more but i ran out of batteries.
Do you know the abandoned office 2F ?
Ethan : Yes, i know it, it's not far from where i live, why?
George : There is a key of the place i said.
Coming in. It's opened and bring the keys.
Ethan : I can do that but you talk about wich place?
George : I will tell you when you will have the keys.
I ran out of batteries, call me again when you arrive in the office
Ethan : Hello ? Pff...
Ethan : I'm going out mom.
Natasha : I do not care, you're tall, you do what you want.
Are you going with George?
Ethan : Yes, he found a place to explore for my blog...
Natasha : It's good. Be careful not to hurt yourself
I do not have cash for the hospital.
Ethan : Do not worry, we'll be careful.
Natasha : Hm ... Oh, there's apple pie in the fridge.
Ethan : No, thanks, I'm not hungry, I got up late and...
Natasha : Oh! Screw you !
No one wants any of my pies, what's so bad about my pies ?
Ethan : Nothing, they are delicious, I'm not hungry.
Natasha : Ok, ok, ok.
Bye bye...
Ethan : See you.
Grandfather : She pissed you off to taste her apple pie ?
Ethan : Oh no, no. Hm... I...
Grandfather : Ah ! You do not have to justify Ethan, I can understand.
I fell into his trap, I eat one and...
Oh...
Holy sky ! I had diarrhea for 5 days :
anus, cracked.
Natasha : I heard!
Ethan : Sorry for you, take care of yourself.
Grandfather : Yeah..
Ethan : yeah, George, it's me. i'm in front of office...
The window is opened ?
George : Already? Coool!
You don't need to go out the window,
come from the door. it should be unlocked..
Ethan : Ok, it works !
Are you sure the key is really inside ?!?
George : Of course, you can trust to your friend George.
Tonight you will explore a abandoned hotel.
Ethan : What..euh..What, wait, wait ?!
Damn it !
It's cold here.
The keys !
Hop !
Go, I'm leaving.
George, it's good, I have the keys.
George : Well, yes ... You have the keys, I told you they were inside.
Meet me at Willow Creek Park.
Ethan : You told me about a place abandoned earlier, a hotel to be precise.
I would like you to tell me a little more.
George : Exactly, meet me at the park.
The hotel is right outside, and you have the keys to enter.
Ethan : Ok, are you in the park there?
George : Yes, and i've cold, so, speed up please.
Ethan : I hope it's worth a look his hotel.
Ethan : So what do you need to know?
George : The hotel has been abandoned for a long time.
Recently, Willow Creek Town Hall plans to restore it to a museum.
The hotel was built in 1961 by Louis Decerois,
a renowned architect at the time.
It was built for the rich and noble family, Giovanni.
On gave him the name, Hotel Giovanni, logical ? *Laugh*
Don't know anything about the Giovanni family,
but what I do know is that something bad happened.
It seems that Gustave Giovanni murdered his wife,
Countess Giovanni and all the servants present in the hotel.
He was found the next morning by the police, hanging in the room of his daughter...
who is 12 years old.
Ethan : Oh, it's horrible.
But why hang in her daughter's room?
George : No idea, they did not say anything about this little girl.
Ethan : But where do you get all this information?
George : On Simpedia ! Think a little Ethan !
Ethan : Charming story, what if we went there?
Hôtel Giovanni
George : Here we are: Hotel Giovanni.
Go ahead, I'll join you,I want to see what's in this building.
Ethan : Ok.
George : Whore ! Are you going to open ?
Ethan : Calm down ... Do not force like that.
Great, it was missing all that.
He touched what, him
What a mess...
Why close here ?
It's crazy, it looks like the walls caught fire.
Ouuuh... It's cold.
But, it's the same here.
What could have happened here ?
He finally opened it, this door. *Laugh*
Ouhouhouh ! You are not beautiful!
It's not even worth crossing.
I will fall to 100%.
I'm intrigued, I'd like to know what's on the other side.
It's inaccessible, why?
I'm leaving.
Whore ! It was what !
There is someone ?
No, I did not dream, there was someone. I'm sure.
No, no, no, do not let me go.
There was a doll here.
Is this a joke ?
It stinks of shit!
Whore ! But how did she get there?
I missed it and did not see it. It can only be that.
Yes ?
George : Ethan ? Are you still in the hotel ?
Ethan : Yeah ! There are strange things happening.
George : Leave the hotel immediately!
I have just found a paper listing some of the employees' testimonies
It's scary.
Ethan : Ok, ok. Do not tell me what it is written. I arrive.
I leave this place.
Oh no. It starts again.
It's not real Ethan, it's not real.
It's not real.
What do you want me, doll ?
Oh, no...
I...
I remember this place.
Why here !
Jenny...
Almost 14 years have passed, and...
I'm coming back here.
Ok.
Courage, Ethan.
Looks like others have come.
I hope to be alone...
though...
That's right, I'm in another reality.
What could have happened to make the hospital look like this?
Up, padre.
Asylum. Yes, it was a asylum once.
What is happening ?
Damn it !
Oh, whore.
Ok.
I know that.
Hush, not a sound.
What ?!
No, no, no. What to do !
You are in my mind!
It's not real, it's not real, it's not real, it's not real, it's not real...
IT'S NOT REAL !
Do you want me to follow you, doll?
Okay, guide me to the exit.
???
??? : Instead of running away.
You go deep into my world.
You love evil, do not you?
Little naughty.
Ethan : What is this ?
??? : And that Ethan, is it real?
Ethan : What ?
??? : He has sounded the hour !
Time to drag these bastards on a leash!
Dance and sing my faithful.
Because tonight, the hotel Giovanni, opens its doors!
*Laugh*
??? : You let me in.
Ethan : Ok, i'm leaving.
George !
George : Look, there is a strange drawn symbol and there are strange words
I do not understand.
Ethan : Let me see.
Hm...
I think I have seen this symbol already.
George : Really ?
Ethan : Hotel.
Get out.
He's here.
Burn.
Indeed, it's scary.
I suggest we come back to clear this up.
George : You know something ?
Ethan : I will explain to you.
Manoir d'ombre noire.
Ethan : What is he doing?
Natasha : Earlier, he saw an ad that was on TV,
it was talking about traveling to Las Vegas.
Except that he thought he would go to Las Vegas
This jerk did not understand the announcement, suddenly, I do not know how to tell him that he does not go to Las Vegas
There he learns English. What a moron.
Ethan : Oh, i see.
Grandfather : My english is the best of the world.
Natasha : You see, he learns English, he did not understand this jerk.
George : *Laugh*
Natasha : There isn't « LAS VEGAS », idiot.
Grandfather : Hey ! it's me who raised you, respect a little the elders.
Natasha : i don't care.
George : What do you want to tell me ? You were weird earlier.
Ethan : How tell you ?!
George : Let me guess, it's happening again ?
Ethan : Yes..except now, it's not usually like this.
Before my attack arrives, i seen a little girl in the upper floor of hostel.
I panicked because i thought i wasn't alone in this place.
I left the room and i came in the toilet.
Before you called me, i seen…a weird doll.
It looked like she tried to lead me.
At the moment, i was afraid.
I didn't understand i was doing an attack since i begun in the hostel.
There is a present evil, a demoniac thing.
I got the impression this thing talked me for that matter.
George : Hm... Totally freaks out.
Normally, when you have this…
the people you see don't talk with you.
You said me you was like invisible for them.
Ethan : Yeah…that's true.
It did
That's not all, i found myself in my hospital bedroom.
You know, about the psychiatric hospital of Willow Crick when i was a kid.
George : Damn it !
But everybody knows this hospital went bankrupt and is closed.
Ethan : Well, i guess anyone or something was opened because there is really an evil who exists.
The creatures failed to attack me.
You know, theses zombie nurses i drew often.
George : Yeah, i see what do you talking about but you said me if you didn't make noise, she couldn't see you.
Ethan : I got your call and they woke up.
Usually, i don't hear what people says me in the reality and less the sounds.
I don't understand.
I was afraid and i'm convinced myself it wasn't real, i yelled it and everything stopped at that moment.
George : Do not forget your camera.
Hôtel Giovanni.
You follow me for a long time.
I would never know how to thank you for your support.
I, I did so much urban exploration ...
I have been to places in search of an answer.
The why of how...
And it never gave anything.
You know, however, that I am not like the others.
But that did not stop you from supporting me more.
You knew how to understand and accept my psychological disorder.
And together, we have found a community that continues to grow.
Today, I go to a place different from others.
I will not say where it is so we do not come looking for me.
What can I tell you ...
It's really strange things going on.
There is a huge demonic source that is denouncing this place.
I went there a little earlier in the evening and I experienced some really terrible things.
I have, I have seen, the Evil with my own eyes.
Paranoia, illusion ... I do not know.
I do not know if it was real or not.
This thing was talking to me...
They talk to me all ...
are...
They are all in my mind !
The poor unfortunate, I can not help you.
Wait.
I can.
I can help.
I'll help.
I will go in and guide you?
Sorry.
Really sorry.
The... Death dances around me.
Everything is dead.
I'll let you know. Take care of yourself.
Hello everyone, it's Ethan.
I am currently inside the hotel Giovanni.
There are really strange things happening.
The building is a victim of an hantise that I can not explain.
See for yourself.
The decor has changed. I'm not crazy, look!
I move slowly.
The whole world must know.
I will take some pictures.
I filmed that.
I'm not terrified or surprised, I'm used to it.
I've lived this since I was a child.
Now you understand why I'm delirious ?
Which doors open?
Randomly, this one.
It looks like the hotel is restoring itself, progessively.
It's like a return to the past.
What do you have to say?
Blood ... blood again.
You're not crazy, Ethan.
Now you have all the elements that prove that this hotel is haunted.
I must be able to leave. I have to publish this video.
??? : We will not go to the wood, the laurels are cut.
Do you remember that song Ethan?
Your mother's drunkard sang it to you.
While you were drinking milk.
Ethan : I have a camera. I film everything I see, we hear you!
Who are you ?
What do you want from me ?
What do you know about me? Answer!
Why do you press on me?
??? : To be harsh? Little asshole, it's you and you alone who stuck to my shoe like a miserable dog poop.
Ethan : The video will be online, thousands of people will hear and see everything that happens here.
??? : The only thing they will see is your little fragile body, flat on the ground, mouth open!
Ethan : Are you holding back all these people?
Who are you ?
??? : Your worst nightmare.
Ethan : The exit !
??? : Where are you going?
Two doors, Ethan.
One leads you to the exit, and the other ...
*Laugh*
Chosen well ... You are only entitled to one chance.
-------------------------------------------
Battle Results - Duration: 0:42. For more infomation >> Battle Results - Duration: 0:42.-------------------------------------------
Win a small fortune with counting cards-the math of blackjack & Co. - Duration: 22:03.Welcome :) Okay this is a bit of a special Mathologer today. A number of you have
requested that I do something on blackjack and card counting so here we
go--how to gamble yourself to fame and fortune. I am being assisted today by
fellow mathematician, longtime colleague and part-time gambler Marty Ross who
is really good at this stuff and who has offered to share some of the
mathematical secrets to coming out on top in gambling games like blackjack.
Okay so let's begin with a couple of puzzles. For the first puzzle suppose
you're looking to bet on roulette. The roulette wheel is numbered from 0 to 37
with 18 red numbers, 18 black numbers and the green 0. So the chances of red coming
up is just under 50/50. Now let's suppose you've been watching the roulette wheel
and of the last 100 spins red has come up 60 times. What should you bet will come
up next: red, black, doesn't matter? Sounds too easy? Well this probably comes as a
surprise but most people get this one wrong. We'll give the answer in a little
while. Our second puzzle actually arises in practice--a standard way that casinos
and gambling sites sucker people into betting. For this puzzle you're given a
$10 free bet coupon. You can use the coupon to place a bet on any standard
casino game: roulette, blackjack, craps, and so on. If your bet wins then you receive
the normal winnings. For example, let's say you bet red on roulette. If red comes
up you win $10, of course. Win or lose, the casino takes the coupon. Now here's the
question: what is the value of this coupon? In other words, what should or
would you be willing to pay for such a coupon? We leave that one for you to
fight over in the comments. But we'll give you a hint: whatever you think the
obvious answer is you're definitely wrong :) Now on with making our fortune.
Famously the mathematician Blaise Pascal sorted out the basics of probability in
order to answer some tricky gambling questions.
When not dropping rocks Galileo also dabbled in these ideas. So if we roll a
standard die, then there's a one in six chance that five will come up, on a
roulette wheel there is a 1 in 37 chance that 13 comes up, the usual stuff. And then
comes in the money. What really matters to a gambler is not only the odds of
winning but of course also how much they get paid if they win. right? And that is the
idea of expectation, the expected fraction of the gamblers bet he expects to win or
lose. As an example, suppose we bet a dollar on red on roulette. We have an 18
in 37 chance of red in which case we win $1. There's also a 19 and 37 chance
of losing $1. And so, if we keep betting $1 on red, on average we expect a loss of
18/37 - 19/37 which is - 1/37th of $1, or -0.03 dollars. What this tells us is
that in the long run we expect to have lost about 3% of whatever we've bet. 37
spins and we expect to have lost about one dollar. 370 spins and we've lost
about $10 and so on. Of course, dumb luck can mean that the actual amount we might
win or lose may vary dramatically. Again, in maths we express all this by saying
that the expectation of betting on red is - 1/37th or minus 3%. As another example,
what if you bet that the number 13 comes up? If 13 comes up we win $35 and
there's a 1in 37 chance of that. There's also a 36 and 37 chance of
losing your dollar and so our expectation comes to 35/37 - 36/37 or -1/37
which as in the first roulette game that we considered is equal to minus 1/37. In
fact, no matter what you bet on roulette, the expectation will always be
- 1/37 give or take some casino variation. Expectation
can vary dramatically on gambling games, from close to 0% on some casino games
down to -40% or so on some lotteries. But, unsurprisingly, the
expectation is pretty much guaranteed to be less than zero and minus means losing. So
far so really really bad :) Hmm what can we do about it? Well a popular
trick is to vary the size of your bet depending on whether you win or lose. The
most famous of such schemes is the so called martingale. This betting scheme
works like this: as before let's bet on red in roulette and let's start by
betting $1. If red comes up you win $1 and you repeat your $1 bet. If red does
not come up you lose your dollar. To make up for your loss you play again
but this time with a doubled wager of $2. If red comes up you win $2 which
together with the $1 loss in the previous game amounts an overall win of
2 minus 1 is equals $1. So you've won, so you go back to betting just $1. On the other
hand, if red does not come up you lose your $2 which then adds up to a total
loss of 2 plus 1 is 3 dollars. You've only lost so far so you play again, but this
time with a doubled wager of $4. If red comes up you win $4 which together with
the $3 loss so far means that overall you've won $1. You've won and so you
revert to betting just $1. On the other hand, if red does not come up you lose
your $4 which then adds up to a total loss of 4 plus 3 equals 7 dollars. So far you've
only lost so you play again but this time with a doubled wager of $8, etc. So
basically you keep doubling your bet until your bad luck runs out at which
time you start from the beginning by betting $1 next then keep doubling your
bet again until you win, and so on. As long as you stop playing
after some win, this betting strategy seems to guarantee you always coming out
on top overall. There are many such betting schemes the d'Alembert
the reverse Labouchere. Apparently these schemes work much better if they have
fancy French names, believe it or not. But do bet variation schemes work?
Probability questions like this one can be tricky, depending in a subtle way on
our assumptions. The martingale, for example, obviously works if you happen to
have infinitely dollars in your pocket. But then why bother gambling? And, of
course, whatever you do you can always get lucky but with a finite amount of
money in your pocket, what can we expect to happen? Well, suppose we make a
sequence of bets with the same expectation for each bet, as in the setup
we just looked at. Then the total amount we expect to win or lose is easy to
calculate. It's just E times that positive number there and if E is
negative then uhoh no luck. That brings us to the fundamental and very depressing
theorem of gambling. The theorem says that if the expectation is negative for
every individual bet then no bet variation can make the expectation
positive overall. Damn ! :) Okay, so we're not going to get rich unless we somehow find
a game with positive expectation. For the moment, let's just assume that such a
game exists. How well then can we do? Suppose we're betting on a casino game
for which the chances of winning are 2/3 and therefore a chances of losing are 1/3.
Let's also assume that just like in betting on red in roulette you win or
lose whatever amount you bet. Then the expectation for this game is actually
positive. To be precise it's a whopping 33%. Now such a huge positive expectation
in the casino game is clearly a fantasy. But bear with us. Ok, suppose we start with
$100. What are the chances of doubling our money to $200? Well, obviously, if we
just plunk it all down in one big bet of $100 then the chances of doubling are,
well, 2/3, of course. This may come as a surprise but we can actually improve our
chances if we bet $50 at a time and we play until we are either bankrupt or we have
doubled our money. Let's do the maths. If we place bets of
fifty dollars, after one bet, win or lose, we either have 150 or 50 dollars. And
after two bets we have $0, $100 or $200. Now, reading off the tree, we see
that at this point the probability of having doubled our money in the first
two plays is 2/3 times 2/3 which is equal to 4/9. And, similarly, the
probability to be back to where we started from with $100 is, well, 2/3
times 1/3 plus 1/3 times 2/3 which happens to also be 4/9. But if we're back
at $100 we can keep on playing until eventually we have doubled our money or are
bankrupt. It can actually take it while before this is sorted out, right? Now if
D are the chances of eventually doubling our money in this way, then D is
equal to what? Well, 4/9 the probability of having doubled our money after two
bets plus the second 4/9 the probability of being back where we started from
times the probability to be able to double from this point on. And what is
that? Well we're back to $100. So the probability is D again. It's
actually quite a nifty calculation when you think about it. Anyway, now we just
have to solve for D and this gives that D is equal to 4/5 which is 80%. And this
is definitely a lot better than 66% that going for just one bet of $100
guaranteed. Repeating the trick, we can consider betting 25 dollars at a time.
This results in an about 94% chance of doubling our money. In fact, by making the
bet size smaller and smaller we can push the probability of us eventually
doubling our money to as close to certainty as we wish and once we've
doubled our money, why not keep on playing to quadruple, octuple, etc. our
money. And since we can push the probability of doubling our money as
close to certainty as we like, the same is then also true for
of those more ambitious goals. Even better the same turns out to be true no
matter what probabilities we're dealing with. As long as the expectation of the
game we play is positive, as in the game that was played. The very surprising
conclusion to all this is our second very encouraging theorem of gambling. So
here we go. If the expectation is positive, then we can win as much as
like, with as little risk as we like, by betting small enough for long enough. And
so, finally, a bit of very good news, right? Alright, so all that's holding us back
from fame and fortune is finding a game of positive expectation. For that, of
course, we again turn to the game of roulette.
.. Just kidding :) and we'll get back to blackjack in a minute. But there are
many approaches to gambling and one factor to keep in mind is that games
like roulette are mechanical which means that the true odds aren't exactly what the
simple mathematics predicts. Is this sufficient to get an edge on the game?
Well I won't go into that today but in the references you can find some
fascinating stories of people who have tried to and occasionally succeeded in
beating a casino in this way and such attempts continue to this day.
And with that in mind, we'll now answer our roulette puzzle from the start. So if
60 of the last 100 spins have turned up red, then you should most definitely
bet on red. Of course, feel free to disagree vehemently in the comments. Ok
so finally on to making our fortune at blackjack, a possibility made famous in
the Kevin Spacey movie 21. Well Kevin's out of favour, now so should watch The
last casino instead, it's a much better movie anyway.
For this video we don't really have to worry too much about the rules of
blackjack, so here's just a rough sketch. Now blackjack is played with a standard
deck of 52 cards or nowadays a number of such decks. The goal is to get as close
to 21 without going over. All face cards count as ten, the aces
count as 1 or 11 the player can actually choose whichever works better
for them. In blackjack you're playing against the dealer. You're initially dealt
two cards and the dealer just one, all face-up for everybody to see. You go
first. You can ask for more cards one at a time
until you either bust which means you go over 21 in which case you lose
immediately or you stop before this happens. Then it's the dealer's turn who
will deal herself cards like a robot until she hits 17 or above and then
stops. The person closest 21 without having gone bust wins. The casino's edge
comes from you the player having to go first
knowing only the dealer's first card. So if you bust by going over 21 then you
lose immediately even if the dealer later busts as well. There are however some
compensating factors that favor the player including the ability to make
decisions such as when to stop receiving cards and whether to "split" or to "double".
We won't go on to this. Actually the ability to make decisions only favors
the player if they know what they're doing which is actually hardly ever the
case :) The fundamentals of optimizing blackjack play involve knowing what
decisions to make given any total of your cards and whatever the dealer's
card and this is known as "basic strategy" and was actually first figured out in
the 1950s by some army guys playing with their new electronic calculators. The
basic strategy can be summarized in a table which all expert players know by
heart. Here's a simplified version. Let's use it. At the moment our cards add up to,
well, 10 for the queen plus 5, that's 15, so look up 15 on the left side. The
dealer has 8 and so the basic strategy tells us that we should "hit" which means
ask for another card. Let's do that. Now we've got 19 and this means that the
basic strategy tells us to stand or stop which of course makes total sense at
this point in time. Figuring out the basic strategy just
involves a lot of easy probability tree diagrams and stuff like that. Casino rules
can differ which then changes the basic strategy slightly as well as the
resulting expectation but in a not too nasty casino the expectation,
given optimal play this way, might be about -0.5%. Close but no
banana. Of course plenty of people do worse than
that. Casinos play their cards close to their
chests but it seems that on average the casinos make well over 5% on blackjack, a
clearly better rate of return for the casino than on roulette. Anyway, if we
want to make our fortune we have to somehow get around that -0.5% and that's where card counting comes in.
Card counting arose in the
early sixties, courtesy of mathematician Edward Thorp and the fundamental idea is
very easy. Basic strategy assumes that any card has an equal likelihood of
appearing next. Well it's a fairly natural assumption to make if there's NO
other information to be had but of course there IS other information to be
had as cards get dealt the probabilities change. In general, high cards are better
for the player and low cards are worse. Then, as the cards are dealt out, the
expectation changes and the expectation will be positive if sufficiently many low
cards are dealt. That sounds like a lot of information to keep track of but
counting simplifies it all down to keeping track of just one number called
the running count. Every time the cards are shuffled the running count resets to
0. After the shuffle whenever you see a low card you add one to the running
count. Whenever you see a high card you
subtract one. Otherwise you don't do anything. The running count indicates how
many extra high cards there are among the cards left to be dealt. Keeping track
of the the running count may seem tricky to do in a casino with all the cards
zipping around on the table but it's actually pretty easy watching a blackjack table for about an hour most people can keep track
of the running count pretty accurately. There are also plenty of apps around
like that one there if you want to practice in the safety of your home or
you can just get a plain old deck of cards. Now were any of you fast enough
to keep track of the running count just now, over there. I showed this
one to Marty cold and he just had it straight away. Anyway what we really want
to know is not the number of extra high cards left to be dealt but the fraction
of extra high cards remaining. For example five extra high cards matter
much less if they're within three decks left to be played than if there's only
one deck left to be played. To account for this we simply take the running
count and divide by the number of decks left to be dealt. This number is called the
true count and here's the surprisingly simple formula that relates the true
count to the expectation at the given point of the game and this formula
contains some really good news. A true count of two or greater means that our
expectation is positive, right two minus one is positive. A true count of plus ten
which can easily happen just before the shuffle means the expectation is 4.5%
which is pretty amazing. So what does the card counter do? Well, ideally, she bets
little or nothing when the true count is negative, makes small bets if the true
count is slightly positive and then larger bets when the true count is
higher. The bad news is that betting in such a manner involves a lot of boring
waiting around followed by frantic and really really
suspicious betting perhaps hundreds of dollars on a few brief hands. How well
does it work? Well these days a typical betting scheme going up to say a maximum
bet of 200 dollars might result in an average of about 15 dollars an hour.
Wow, hmmm not what I would call a great hourly pay. And it gets worse, the result
in any given hour can differ massively. You can expect a standard deviation, a
typical plus or minus to be about $500. Of course the way card
counters bet makes them very easy to spot and Marty has had his run-ins with
casinos. So unless you're part of a well drilled team of counters and players or
you're really good at disguises there's a fair chance you get to meet some burly
casino employees within a few short hours. Well we did say blackjack is a
way to win a SMALL :) fortune. Good luck happy gambling and that's all
for today ... Except we've all heard that back in the 70s there were lots of
people making millions of dollars playing blackjack in the casinos. So what
has changed? Why can't we make millions of dollars these days. (Marty) well the casinos
have gotten a lot more careful and a lot smarter: they use more decks which
means the running count matters less, the true count is slower to get going, they
use automatic shuffling machines, they really are on the lookout for suspicious
betting. So unless you're incredibly good at disguising yourself, incredibly good at
team playing, it's pretty much dead. (Burkard) It's dead, that's sad but what about other games? There's
online gambling now so are there other ways to make money with gambling these days.
Absolutely yeah the casino is always looking to sucker more people into
betting and suckering old people into betting more more, so there's always
promotions, there's new games, new rules, some are knowingly have expectation
which is positive and they just watch out, others the casino makes mistakes or
online betting sites make mistakes. So you do a little expectation calculation
and often not always but often you can find a little edge and enough of these
little edges and you can make a nice little profit on the side and definitely
there's some people who just computerized everything, calculate to the
nth degree and there's some secret people I'm sure who are doing very very
well. All right. Well that's a perfect lead-in to our next video, at some point.
Anyway thanks Marty for coming today. Thank you and we'll have you again soon.
-------------------------------------------
Si vous avez un de ces 15 problèmes, buvez de l'eau au citron plutôt que des médicaments - Duration: 5:30. For more infomation >> Si vous avez un de ces 15 problèmes, buvez de l'eau au citron plutôt que des médicaments - Duration: 5:30.-------------------------------------------
WIN or FAIL #32 - ''Quick take the picture! ' - Duration: 4:51.Oke one step forward!
Turn around say hi!
Dude you are wimping out
BRAAAAKE
-------------------------------------------
Grande Fratello vip: Ignazio deride Ivanka per il suo peso, facendola piangere | M.C.G.S - Duration: 3:40. For more infomation >> Grande Fratello vip: Ignazio deride Ivanka per il suo peso, facendola piangere | M.C.G.S - Duration: 3:40.-------------------------------------------
Vous pouvez perdre plus de 6kg en seulement 15 jours avec ce régime puissant - Duration: 6:45. For more infomation >> Vous pouvez perdre plus de 6kg en seulement 15 jours avec ce régime puissant - Duration: 6:45.-------------------------------------------
UFC fighter IN JAIL after involvement in a fixed fight; UFC shanghai Result - Duration: 1:59.Tae Hyun Bang, an ex ufc fighter, appears to have been given a 10 month prison sentence
for accepting $87,950 to take a dive, and lose his fight vs Leo Kuntz back in November
2015.
According to Tim Burke of bloody elbow the betting line was slightly in Bang's favor
but then heavily swung in the opposite direction.
The UFC noticed it was the largest odd swing they'd seen in MMA and warned both fighters.
Kuntz said he was approached and told "Hey , if either one of you guys goes out there
and doesn't fight, you should prepare to be investigated."
Bang was rattled by the warning and decided to fight and not take the dive.
He ended up winning the bout via split decision.
He was allegedly given death threats by South Korean organized crime figures after the contest.
They reportedly bet up to 1.7 million dollars.
The UFC terminated Bangs contract after the conclusion of the investigation where he was
found guilty.
Tyrone Woodley responds to Kelvin Gastelum after kelvin told him he respected him as
a fighter and person after Woodley overreacted to this tweet.
Woodley said "just heard you say you were salty and "I Know I can beat him" my thought
is win or lose you had a chance to show it.
I feel I can beat Rory Macdonald but he whipped my ass when I had my chance.
#lowsodium So, I guess this doesn't qualify as an apology for overreacting.
Michael Bisping lost via KO round 1 at UFC Shanghai vs Kelvin Gastelum.
I don't think he should've been allowed to enter the ring after possibly being concussed
after the GSP fight.
But apparently he was medically cleared for the bout.
He said that he's still not planning to leave the sport.
Gastelum got on the mic and called out Robert Whitaker for a main event fight in Australia.
We'll see if the fight ever materializes.
So where do you guys think Bisping should go from here?
let me know down below.
-------------------------------------------
L'huile qui élimine l'acide urique du sang, guérit l'anxiété - France 365 - Duration: 5:19. For more infomation >> L'huile qui élimine l'acide urique du sang, guérit l'anxiété - France 365 - Duration: 5:19.-------------------------------------------
ПОВЫШЕНИЕ ПОТЕНЦИИ В ДОМАШНИХ УСЛОВИЯХ. САМЫЙ БЫСТРЫЙ СПОСОБ УВЕЛИЧЕНИЯ ПОТЕНЦИИ ДОМА. ЛУЧШИЕ СОВЕТЫ - Duration: 2:58. For more infomation >> ПОВЫШЕНИЕ ПОТЕНЦИИ В ДОМАШНИХ УСЛОВИЯХ. САМЫЙ БЫСТРЫЙ СПОСОБ УВЕЛИЧЕНИЯ ПОТЕНЦИИ ДОМА. ЛУЧШИЕ СОВЕТЫ - Duration: 2:58.-------------------------------------------
Secret Story 11 - Le jeu de l'amour et du ping pong - Duration: 2:22. For more infomation >> Secret Story 11 - Le jeu de l'amour et du ping pong - Duration: 2:22.-------------------------------------------
290188 - Duration: 1:31. For more infomation >> 290188 - Duration: 1:31.-------------------------------------------
Pilote du NCM ConnerieVlog#2 Descente de la moitié de la foret de Narnia Bourré !!! FAIL !!! - Duration: 9:35. For more infomation >> Pilote du NCM ConnerieVlog#2 Descente de la moitié de la foret de Narnia Bourré !!! FAIL !!! - Duration: 9:35.-------------------------------------------
ART EXHIBITIONS TV PRESENTA PINO CARCELLI - Duration: 3:22. For more infomation >> ART EXHIBITIONS TV PRESENTA PINO CARCELLI - Duration: 3:22.-------------------------------------------
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