"...we shall fight in France, we shall fight on the seas and oceans, we shall fight with
growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our Island, whatever
the cost may be," (1).
It was June of 1940, and despite Winston Churchill's rousing speech, the UK couldn't salvage
the defenses of her ally.
France fell to Germany just two weeks later.
With the surrender of its rival since the days of Julius Caesar, it was tempting for
a confident Germany to spring over the English channel, begin an invasion of the United Kingdom,
thus completing total victory in Western Europe.
But there was hesitation.
Rather than go straight for the head of the British Empire, why not cut off the main island
from its Mediterranean holdings?
A Britain disconnected from its empire would be Britain incapable of long-term survival.
And so a plan was drafted (2).
Near the southern tip of Spain was a rock, a rock which stood as the naval gateway between
the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean.
By taking this point, one could easily leap into North Africa, Malta, stretch to the Suez
Canal- the British Empire would be choked.
Even more enticing, this 2.6 mile outcropping into the sea was controlled by the British;
its capture would catalyst falling British dominoes to the East.
Simplifying matters, the Spanish government was led by Francisco Franco, who owed his
power to German military aid in the Spanish Civil War.
So all the Germans had to do was ask to move some soldiers through friendly Spanish territory,
take this rock, and Britain's demise would be inevitable.
But Franco wasn't ready to bring Spain into the conflict.
Despite Germany's aid in the previous years, Franco had declared Spain's neutrality in
1939.
Even after a personal visit from the German leader, Franco wouldn't agree to more than
fighting at Germany's side when he believed Spain was ready (3).
In other words: never.
Thus, Francisco Franco, the protege of the Italian and German dictators, prevented the
axis powers from taking the British-controlled peninsula, the lifeline for the allies in
the Mediterranean.
Gibraltar and its famous rock had played a critical role in the largest conflict in human
history.
Winston Churchill had known the stakes for Gibraltar all along.
The 2 mile British holding on the southern tip of Spain had been of the utmost importance.
As he put it: "Spain had much to give and even more to take away," (3).
That sentiment couldn't be more true today as the United Kingdom negotiates its future
relationship with the European Union.
When the UK voted to leave the European Union in June of 2016, for better or worse, they
also signed on to a whole lot of complication: divorce bill, EU migration, common fisheries
policy, financial services, the critical border between Northern Ireland and the Republic
of Ireland.
But another border, one with centuries-long historical implications, has been often overlooked
in the Brexit process: the three-quarter mile, 1.2 kilometer border between Spain and Gibraltar.
Gibraltar and its 30,000 residents, though geographically connected to Spain, have been
formally under British control as an overseas territory since the 1713 Treaty of Utrecht
ended the War of Spanish Succession (4).
But Spain was never content with the settlement, and attempted several times in several wars
to reclaim the peninsula.
In 1966, General Franco stopped travel into and out of Gibraltar, even cutting telephone
lines (5,100).
But much of the uncertainty ended when both Spain and the United Kingdom entered the European
Community, which led to the European Union.
Free movement of people meant workers could cross from Gibraltar to the closest Spanish
town, La Linea, and vice versa.
With competitive tax rates and access to the European single market, Gibraltar became a
hub for gambling firms, financial institutions, and insurance companies (9).
Gibraltar wasn't part of the Schengen travel area, and didn't join the EU Customs Union,
so border checks continued, but the EU took on the role of arbiter between the UK and
Spain when border issues did arise.
Gibraltarians, for their part, seemed to favor the arrangement.
In the 2016 Brexit referendum, 96% voted to remain in the EU, with 84% turnout (11).
But as we know, UK-wide the vote was to leave the EU, and this will have consequences for
Gibraltar.
If part of the future relationship between the UK and EU involves leaving the single
market, the institutions based in Gibraltar might lose access to European clients.
The freedom of movement of people might end, meaning the flow of workers across the border
won't just be subject to border checks, but new travel and labor restrictions as well.
Leaving the European Common Aviation Area and regulation would complicate travel, particularly
because Gibraltar's airport lies on yet another disputed strip of land (10).
In her letter from March 29, 2017 triggering the UK's withdrawal process, Prime Minister
Theresa May made no mention of Gibraltar, but Spain was already making moves for its
interest within the European Commission negotiating guidelines(13).
Section 24 of its those guidelines, agreed by the remaining 27 EU members reads that:
"After the United Kingdom leaves the [European] Union, no agreement between the EU and the
United Kingdom may apply to the territory of Gibraltar without the agreement between
the Kingdom of Spain and the United Kingdom," (14;15).
This meant that while the UK negotiated its future relationship with the EU, it also needed
to conduct one on one negotiations with Spain over Gibraltar.
Therefore, with no time to waste, the UK and Spain began conducting bilateral talks regarding
the transition period between the UK's formal withdrawal of the European Union in March
2019, and the complete implementation of a future relationship.
And it seemed to be going well.
In October 2018, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said that he and Theresa May had already
agreed on an arrangement for the transition period.
The Spanish foreign minister even offered that: "If the Brexit agreement needs to
be signed tomorrow, it will be signed and Gibraltar won't be a problem," (16).
But, as it turns out, it was a huge problem.
While the parallel talks seemed to be going well, the Spanish tone changed after the EU
and UK struck a deal over the withdrawal.
With the 27 EU members set to meet and agree on the divorce deal in November 2018, the
Spanish Prime Minister voiced his displeasure.
The deal, he said, didn't explicitly lay out that Spain and the UK would negotiate
the long-term relationship of Gibraltar separately: " If there are no changes, we will veto
Brexit," he threatened (17).
With the UK desperate for a divorce agreement needed to unlock long-term relationship options,
and the EU desperate for solidarity in a time of crisis, a scramble ensued to save the summit.
The British ambassador gave written assurances that Spain and the UK would negotiate the
future of Gibraltar together.
And Prime Minister Sanchez, who was under pressure back home to look tough, immediately
relished the perceived concessions.
"We are going to resolve a conflict that has been going for over 300 years," he said.
Adding, "[The Withdrawal Agreement] puts Spain in a position of strength in negotiations
with the United Kingdom over Gibraltar that we have not had before now," (12).
The subtext here is that Spain holds a lot of power over the UK going forward.
Unlike the divorce deal, the future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European
Union requires the formal approval of all 27 member states and the European Parliament
(18).
If Spain doesn't get what it wants out of its separate negotiations over Gibraltar,
it could in theory hold up all of the UK's long-term arrangements with the European Union
(22).
While Prime Minister Sanchez's threats to "veto Brexit" were rather hollow the 1st
time, they could prove true in round two.
Spain's ultimate goal is centuries old.
They lost Gibraltar in the treaty of Utrecht, and couldn't take it back militarily.
So if they can't have full control of it, they'll try and secure joint sovereignty,
joint control over the peninsula.
This would mean Gibraltar brought in to the Spanish Constitution, dual British and Spanish
nationality for Gibraltarians, the dismantling of the border with Spain, and the potential
for joint Spanish-British defense arrangements for Gibraltar (20).
Now is an important moment to point out what Gibraltarians want in all this.
In two referenda, one in 1969 and another in 2002, Gibraltarians voters overwhelmingly
supported the maintenance of UK sovereignty (5;6;7;8)- something the UK government likes
to point out pretty often.
But Gibraltar didn't feature in the 2016 referendum debate; it nonetheless now stands
as an complication in carrying out the referendum result.
For some critics, Gibraltar was the UK's blindspot.
A senior EU official said to Reuters:"The British didn't give a damn about Gibraltar
and they created this situation themselves...No one is going to blame the Spanish for taking
advantage," (19).
Spanish officials see negotiations over the UK's future relationship with the EU as
an opening to reassert themselves in Gibraltar.
And so the British government is between 'the rock' and a hard place.
After all, Spain has much to give and even more to take away.
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