I'd be very surprised if we see any movement in the cash rate when the Reserve Bank gets
together for the first time in 2018.
The RBA has already tipped its hand, making very clear that it sees the cash rate going
up, not down.
But, of course, it has not tipped its hand on timing.
February is unlikely to be the time for the first move since August 2016.
Inflation is persisting below the RBA target range, and much as this might have been seen
as a virtue 5 or more years ago, it must now be worrying the RBA that they might not be
able to coax it back up.
Of particular worry is that wages growth has been below 2% for 18 months.
We have had a record 3.3% jobs growth figure for the past year, and wages should be growing,
but still they don't.
Australians carry amongst the highest levels of private debt in the world, and low wages
growth has meant that many recent homebuyers are feeling as stretched on their home loan
payments as they were when they started.
Into the mix also, goes the Australian dollar going back above US 81 cents.
The last thing the Reserve Bank wants to do is encourage a higher Australian currency,
just as the economy is recovering.
The fact that the Sydney market has started to slow also takes the pressure off for an
immediate move.
So for the first Tuesday in February 2018, I'd expect to see no move from the Reserve
Bank.
Rates are on the move anyway, and if you are an owner occupier on a variable rate making
principal and interest payments that move is down.
10 institutions on Canstar's database have cut variable rates for owner occupiers in
the past two months.
So, what should consumers be doing?
Canstar's website compares a total of 283 loans with comparison rates starting with
a 3.
If you're paying more, it might be time you considered alternatives.
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