-Good day, friends. 'Mediametrics' channel, this is show 'Inform Bureau', Oleg Druzhbinsky and Darya Valeskaya today in the studio. Good day to you all. -Good day.
-And today as our guest we have Vladislav Shurygin, chief editor of 'Tomorrow' newspaper, military publisher.
-And the person, I won't be afraid to say it, knows the military subject better that anyone else in the country.
-From the point of view of a journalist and a publisher. Greetings, Vladislav. We are very glad to see you in the studio.
s-Good day. -Good day. I started with these compliments to you deliberately, because I would like to hear an honest answer to the question:
-Has WW3 started already? And if it has, then who's winning?
-That's why I'm going to start with saying, that I am just one of the bunch. It is difficult to be alone on the top, and answer for everything.
-You know, in my opinion, in my personal experience for the last 25 years tells me, that WW3 never ended.
-That is - it started as the Cold War, then we suffered in this war a very devastating geopolitical defeat. And that is why we rolled back from everywhere.
-They wiped their feet on us, kicked us out of everywhere, and as soon as we tried to exit this 'bear's corner', all the preparations that were done in advance, immediately started to be used.
-That is, this sanctions system, and all these systems of united resistance of the west, etc. They were all prepared in advance?
-Without a doubt. All these things were worked out for the past 20 years.
-That is, sanctions have started to be worked on somewhere around Iraq war.
-And we ardently supported these sanctions, that were imposed after the 1st Gulf War.
-We called them: 'A very correct decision'. We voted for this. There was still Gorbachev back then.
-And it was a last solution, back then. Then there was Yugoslavia, then sanctions fell on Iran. Sanctions on Iraq were never lifted.
-And this long term use of these sanctions led to the point, where we received...
-But how is it? Didn't our country knew, that it has this united frontline against it?
-I will go into a little retrospective... Literally a few years ago, when Ukrainian conflict had started, there was a feeling,
-That Russia is going to be supported either by Italy, or by Mogherini, or someone in Germany is going to support it, etcetera, etcetera.
-But none of this happened. The west is acting in a totally united matter. -Are we in isolation still?
-And so, we weren't ready for this united frontline?
-Wihout a doubt - no. And here, one must understand 1 simple thing - in these past 25 years, several of epoches changed in our history.
-There was an epoch of these 'young reformers', like Yeltsin, with a 'Honeymoon' with the West, as we thought.
-But it was a honeymoon from our side. That is, the leadership that was in power back then, it was ignorant about all the decisions they were making.
-It was not controlling the geopolitical situation, a period of starting capital gathering was taking place.
-And for that oligarch regime that we had back then, all the questions about security and everything - they were all empty questions for them.
-I remember times in 1990's, when I was sitting in the General Headquarters with my friends, and the chairman of General Headqurters returned from conference with Yeltsin,
-He was returning horrified, because he was reporting, that we were getting encircled here, here were are giving everything up without asking any questions at all, we are leaving from here...
-And he was told: 'Listen, mr. General. What are you talking about? We decide here when there is war, and when there isn't.'
-It turned out, that it wasn't them who were deciding this. And when the current president came to power,
-A situation of slight deja vu happened. This means, that nobody realized, that everything is starting from scratch, again.
-And this abrupt increase of hostility is basically a totally rational thing.
-The world was shared without us. But we are a large superpower. We have a big chunk of our own territory.
-We have certain claims on our place in the world. But no one is waiting for us there anymore.
-And of course, in this case, their responce was united, cohesive, and absolutely normal.
-If we look a little bit into the history, then we can see, unfortunately to my great sadness, that we kind of remind early 19th century and Germany coming out to world's stage.
-You know, unfortunately, this is exactly how it is now.
-When a superpower arises from the new, and very vigorously, but there is no room anymore. And so a Cold War starting.
-And this Cold War, which already turned into war of sanctions, in the attempt to throw us back at any cost, we of course have it today.
-From the very first day of Crimea situation, I had no any illusions about what is going to happen next.
-Vladislav, still, tell us, how the situation have changed in the latest years, and the government pays a lot of attention to problems of the army, investing a lot of money for solving these problems.
-So, what is the main doctrene of Russia? Is it defensive of offensive?
-You know, without a doubt - defensive. Because you see, the configuration of our armed forces itself, if you look at it from military point of view, it does not suggests offense.
-And, as strange as it might sound, it is our great, so to speak, flaw.
-Only now we are starting to introduce the doctrene of a retaliatory strike.
-We are starting to talk about that we can... Well, we never say, that we will start first, but we are saying, that we are going to conduct warfare actively.
-But, you must understand, that no war in human history has been won by defense. There are no wars won by defense.
s-And now... -Not one? How about WW2? The Great Patriotic rather... In the end we won it by defense.
-No, why? We had this offensive all the wy to Berlin. s-Well, we stopped them, and then started our offensive. -Oh, yeah, understandable.
-But we were 'playing' from defense. s-Well, if we talk about who started the war, is a little different matter. But a war can not be finished by defending. -Yes, of course.
-The most classic example, I'm not going to talk about Iraq, because resources there were uncomparable, but rather about Finnish.
-In 1940, the Finnish army was considered to be able to withstand against us in defense, and win.
-But even against our quite passive, and at that moment very unskillful army, it still lost that war.
-Today, we are starting to restore our offensive potential.
-Right now, for the first time after 1990's, we are starting to form our first tank army.
-Which appears to be a powerful striking formation.
-And this is of course a very serious sign, that we are not planning to just quietly sit down, while they are bashing us, and kicking us out.
-Vladislav, please tell us, in your opinion, these western sanctions, did they affected in any way on development of new weaponary?
-While it's not secret, that many parts that are being used in comm systems, radar detection and avionics, they are western. They are not produced in Russia.
-You know, not really. Why? Because for the first time, this came back to us like a boomerang, during the war 08/08/08 in Georgia.
-Back then, it came down on us very carefully.
-When under the pressure of USA, the French, who at that moment were supplying matrixes for thermographic cameras, immediately stopped supplying us with these matrixes.
-And so we immediately realized, that we can not go this way no longer.
-The biggest strike was cutting connections with Ukraine.
-Because we were trying to use all western parts very limited and very modestly.
-Because first of all, everything is patented there. We can not even install the major part of them just like that.
-Second, the biggest part of them can be bought in irrelevant countries: China, Indonesia... All the electronics were bought there at that period.
-But cutting connections with Ukraine hit us very hard, because more than 600 of various types of machinery and weaponary were using parts made in Ukraine. And so this was a major hit.
-As a very simple example - we were left without helicopter engines. We were buying helicopter engines from Motor Sich.
-This means, that they are not made here at all? s-No, Now they are being made.
-That is, literattly in 2 years we have managed to start the production.
-But we still haven't reached the volume, which we had, for example in 2013, when we produced 500 helicopters.
-This was the first parameter that reached USSR level.
-That is, Soviet Union was producing approximately 500 helicopters a year. And we have reached it.
-Right now we can produce about 250-300 helicopters, because we are just trying to restore what Ukraine cut.
-Even more dramatic situation is with naval engines.
-That is, engines, that were arriving from various Ukrainian facilities, including all the same Motor Sich, all kinds of turbines, that were installed on our frigates, they are of course not being delivered right now.
-And, you know what they like to say in MIC: 'Everything suddenly moved to the left'.
-Couldn't they predict this somehow? You know, there are military strategies, etcetera. s-You know, you are absolutely right.
-And military experts, thankfully I can say, that I'm not the only one, thank God, they for a long period of time, and very persistently were defending the position of our technological independence.
s-During the epoch of former minister mr. Serdyukov, along with the former General Headquarters chairman - Makarov... -We are going to talk about this separately.
-Well, in this case I just need to say this.
-There was a plan, to replace our own machinery by foreign models.
-As the first step, they tried to push us to buy 'Iveco' armored vehicle, some sniper rifles.
-And generally, in perspective, it was planned to even buy German tanks. This is what they were talking about.
-So, ones can understand and imagine how it would be today, if we had these weapons in our armed forces, like they say: 'On an industrial scale'.
-And what would we be doing with all this? Considering all these sanctions.
-That is why, generally, common sense mostly prevailed. And relying on our own strength is still valid.
-And another little question... Excuse me, Oleg...
-Out of everything we produce, including the weaponary we are selling to the west, and it actively buys it, which ones are in most demand, and most effective in conditions of modern warfare?
-That is - what can we brag about? What are we making really good?
-You know, in the past 5 years, we... You know, like in Zen, there is this principle: 'To overcome a chasm in 2 jumps'.
-And so, somehow we managed to do it. Because 5 years ago, when money started to flow to the MIC, King Midas effect has begun.
s-Remember there was this King? -Whatever he touched... -...Turned into gold.
-And so, we started to pump gold into it, but it turned out, that this gold gives us nothing.
-That is, we are pumping money in, but there is nothing coming out.
-All desiners were saying: 'We are going to start, just give us money'.
-And when the money were given, it turned out, that there is no equipment, there are no worker collectivity.
-And whatever we were proucing 1 item at a time, like we were doing during the 1990's, 2-3 planes a year, it turned out to be simply impossible to start producing 50-60 mahines a year.
-All the more so - hundreds a year. And it took 2,5 years to just perform technical rearnament. Well, it is not finished yet. It's still being done.
-Excuse me for interrupting you, but I would like to talk about Serdyukov times in our army. I almost said: 'In Soviet army'.
-Sometimes I still call it 'Soviet'. -He wouldn't be there. -Yes. Let's assume that. But this is about another thing.
-You know, there are different points of view about his work, when he was in minister position.
-Public opinion about him being corrupt didn't confirmed in the end. Although we think, that he was simply forgiven.
-But nonetheless, something was being done in Russian army. There were cut backs, scandals on generals level.
-All this was going and going, but then he was replaced by Shoigu.
-And suddenly, literally after a few months, we have a whole division of 'Polite People', perfectly organized, who ensured passing of considerable territory to Russia, without any bloodshed.
-Where did they came from? And is there any Serdyukov's merit? A little provocational question. -How do you evaluate Serdyukov's reforms?
-Yes, and generally, this upgrade of the army to the next level. -Contractors.
-Because now Russian army earns a great deal of respect in society's eyes. How do you think this happened? Let's talk about this.
-Oh, well... This is an endless subject. So I'll try to make it as short as possible.
-First, let's say it right away, I am an absolute opponent of Serdyukov.
-And from the first day, maybe not from the first, but still I saw him quite reservedly, although with certain enthusiasm.
-I thought, that, without a doubt, a civlian in that position is normal.
-All the more so - a specialist. All the more so - from the president. Allthe more so, all the more so...
-But as soon as decisions started, I realized, that it's not his thing.
-I must give him some credit, that besides him doing much harm there, the most of responsibility for the mistakes that took place, lies on head of General Headquarters - mr. Makarov.
-Because Serdyukov is not a military man. He was making sure to push through these decisions, like a heavy cruiser.
-And what decisions are there? s-Well, first... -For example, exicse me, closing military establishments. Who's decision was it?
-Let's say it like the following. Let's be systematic.
-First of all, it was demise of combat control. You must understand, that modern warfare - is above all combat control.
-Spam units, you know, like in a video game, is secondary. But if you have a system, which is fighting...
-I will give a simple example: 1944-1945. We sacrificed our best soldiers in 1941-1942. Professional, loyal, well trained, excellent soldiers.
-In 1943-1944, the manpower that was coming, was much worse. Anyone, who fought back then with the rank of an officer, will confirm this.
-Many of them were coming from liberated regions. They were picking up everyone they could. But...
-The level of combat control was so high, that even with them, we were simply grinding German war machine.
-This tells a lot. With Serdyukov were created, like they were called: 'Serdyukov's balls'.
-It says, that on top there must be a certain amount of generals, certain amount of colonels, certain amount of lieutenants...
-And there must not be more than this. And all this led to not only cut backs, I'm starting to talk about the 2nd part, but also started destruction of officers' personnel.
-MID was despersed back then. s-Everything was dispersed back then. You know, the drama was due to the fact, that theoretically, you could performs cut backs here and there. But the question is: 'How?'
-That is, in this case, cut backs were performed by principle of a single cell.
-That is, if for ex. we need to fire 5.000 officers, and we take 3 random headquarters, which have exactly 5.000. And they just bluntly fired, immediately.
-And nobody cared, that there were Heroes of Russia among them, that there were people with huge combat experience, that there were people, who were just appointed recently.
-And this destruction of officers' personnel, when it was reduced by almost 3,5 times, we are still picking up the pieces.
-You know, that, exactly 1 year ago, last summer, the current minister was seriously considering early graduation from flight schools.
s-Because this gap in flight training... -It's like 1941 all over again. Takeoff, landing, and sent to battle. s-Absolutely correct.
s-Because with Serdyukov, I remember this like it was yesterday, we had 22 pilots in the whole country. 22. -It can't be.
-It absolutely can. 22 people. That's why, now, we are forced to recruit a huge number of cadets and train them, because generation gap is starting.
-And who is fighting in Syria then. Excuse me for interrrupting. There was 50 of our planes there. A few dozens, in any case.
s-Without a doubt, if we gather everyone, who can do something... -Fired ones? s-No, of course not the fired ones.
-Without a doubt, here we can talk about Shoigu's merit.
-Shoigu, and again - the current head of General Headquarters, who did so much for this.
-Where did 'Polite People' came from? Again, they appeared not 'thanks to', but 'in spite of'.
-Because, remember the story, when Serdyukov had a very rough dispute with commander of airborne forces commander Shamanov? When Putin needed to intervene.
-Because Serdyukov wanted to divide them, put them under his personal command, and in this way start to dissolute them there, and after all this - start to cut them.
-Shamanov managed to protect airborne forces, and it was our airborne forces in particular, that were mostly these 'Polite People'.
-You know, in the 1990's, during Yeltsin's severe years, and we were sitting with a few friends generals,
-After conference of industry, when all industrialists left, because they weren't payed for 3-4 months, they...
-I am describing the reality, what really happened. So you would understand the scale of what was going on.
-So, they were picking out unfinished cigarettes butts from ashtrays, emptied them, and made new cigarettes. Because even generals had no money. You see?
-And then, one of them very sadly said: 'We are serving our Motherland contrary to its desire'.
-We won Crimea, we won these years by those people, who served contrary to our country's desire.
-Then this practical question. One of Serdyukov's reforms result was reduction of amount of time for obligatory military service of conscripts. Now they are serving 1 year.
s-Well, this happened not with him in charge. -Well, I mean this was still adopted. s-OK, fine.
-Is it possible to train a conscript to use the newest weaponary, train to drive a tank, and teach all the things they used to teach in more hours?
-And will it harm in any way the capabilities of our army?
-Well, you know, I think right now they've chosen the best possible option.
-Without a doubt, you can train a person in a year. You can't make him a professional, but he does receive a profession.
s-You know, how much time do you need to teach a person to drive a car, in the city of Moscow, where... -But a tank is not a car. s-I'm going to say, that driving in Moscow is harder.
-Although, I'm not comparing anything. I'm just explaining, that it's totally possible to give to a person a military profession in a year.
-But he is not going into battle. Our modern system of military forces very clearly suggests the creation of a mobilization power.
-So, these people are included in the term 'mobilization power'.
-If a serious big threat appears, we need to draft people, who would at least understand how to stand in line, and further teach them the rest...
-But wouldn't it be enough for us to have contractor army?
-Without a doubt - no. First of all, we have the experience of such most advanced countries, which everyone like to refer so much, as the good old USA.
-As soon as USA entered only 2 local wars in Afghanistan and in Iraq, all the love for contractor army came to an end.
-They immediately started to bring people from National Guard. And this is, as you can understand, an organized reserve.
-And little later, they started to draft people from the actual reserve.
-That is, they also have the so called 'National Guard', and they also have the so called 'Reserve'. Country's reserve.
-So then, the ratio of servicemen, and people, who were drafted from their reserve was approximately 50/50.
-Well, the most famous movie on the subject that I can remember is about the famous American sapper, by Kathryn Bigelow.
-Excuse me, but nobody ever noticed, that this person was drafted from the reserve.
-Yes. Understood. You know, I agree with you here, because our war against Georgia showed, how contract Georgian regiments threw their weapons and immediately dispersed.
-Because a person is ready to kill for money, but he is absolutely not ready to die for money. s-It's true, but...
-By the way, how do you see the creation of National Guard here, in Russia?
-Now we also have such structure, taking into account, that other agencies were performing this kind of functions.
-And how would you connect it to the direct command from the president? Why would they need to create this?
-You know, I see this a bit critically. That is, I think this is kind of bureaucratic procedure.
-Because even without them, our domestic forces were under command of their supreme commander, and their supreme commander obeys the president.
-We already have 1 even more organized president's personal guard. Those are - airborne forces.
-Because if you look at their status, you'll see, that airborne forces are personal reverve of the president of Russia.
-That's why, creation of another such unit, I think is more of an attempt to build a certain vertical, with certain amount of positions, which was simply lobbied and proved.
-That is - there was no too much need for it. s-As for its effectiveness... You know, when they say, that it was created for mass suppression of citizens,
-It seems a little funny for me. Because not a single new unit was added to it.
-They are all the same divisions and squads of enternal forces, who was given some OMON units, some other things...
-They alsmost added to it passport and Visa service for some crazy reason.
-Anyway, they started to gather everything they could. But, a bunch of general positions and cells appeared.
-Understood. Vladislav, let's return to WW3, wich is already taking place, and we are losing it. Do I understand correctly?
s-Well, right now we are conducting like... -Heavy defensive warfare.
-Like they say: '...And it was battle after battle at close approaches to Moscow...' Kind of like this I would evaluate it.
-Without a doubt, right now we have this stabilization factor.
-Today, the situation appears to be like this: The west suddenly noticed 'The Russian Bear' that came out of his lair, and discovered, that it has no stick no nothing do push him back to his lair.'
-And we have, you know how they say, sort of 'golden years'.
-It is - when the west has nothing to confront us yet, and there is no any rough military collision, and we have this kind of testing out to see what we are going to do next.
-Let us speak about another subject. For several years, some conflicts across Russia's periphery draw so much attention of public opinion.
-Coup in Ukraine, Crimea, then Syria, Donbass, Syria, etcetera. That is, while be in crisis, to be objective, the society supported the government.
-It was clearly a statement: 'Yes, it is difficult for all of us, but hold on in there'. Like recently said our president. (Note-1)
s-Like in Soviet times: 'Let there be anything, but war'. -Let there be anything, but war.
-Conflicts on the periphery are ending. It seemed like we made a deal on Donbass, is Syria everything came to an end,
-With Turkey we have some improvements... Well, maybe not improvements, but we have no any aggressive activities anymore.
-Maybe the west realized, that Russia is better be left alone, with its domestic problems, with its economic crisis, and break it up on this background?
-Or will there be more military conflicts? What do you think?
-Well, you know, let's correct the first claim: Conflicts are not over yet.
-Conflict in Syria is continuing. All the more so, as an expert, I predict its sudden escalation by fall.
-This is totally obvious. Because this attempt of national reconciliation, under America's pressure, simple led to these groupings,
-Like Jabhat al-Nusra (Note-2) and everything else that's coming from Turkey, they are simply restoring their fighting capabilities, so to speak, and we will have to suppress all this all over again.
-Ukraine appears to be a conflict on hold. Because its totally obvious, that there is active war there every single day.
-And if it's not every day on TV, it doesn't mean, that people are not dying there every day.
-Therefore, for Kiev, Donbass conflict is a matter of a conflict on hold.
-And here, one must understand, that situation with the west, it like lies on these imaginary swing.
-That is - the west is trying to evaluate for itself about how real is the threat from our side.
-That's why, there is an attempt... First of all, they are calculating now much money they will need to restore everything.
-In the 1990's... Well, Europeans are very rational people.
-In the 1990's they were actively disarming themselves. Because they knew for a fact, that Russia is militarily weak, Russia is militarily collapsing, decomposing.
-And there is no point to keep such huge armies they had in late 1980's anymore.
-And all this has started to multiply by zero.
-And now, suddenly, Russia came out, and it turned out, that it has a little something. But the west has nothing.
-Tell us, how real do you thing NATO as threat against Russia? Considering, that we are still a nuclear superpower.
-And considering, that integrity of our country still hasn't arise any doubts. And does it worth for us to participate in this 'arms race'?
-Maybe it's not beheficial for us. -Yes, from economic point of view. s-I am very often asked by my relatives: 'Will there be a war? Or not?'
-I think that, right now, without a doubt, I see no any serious military conflict with the west.
-And in the next 2 years perspective, then I doubt, that there will be any serious military conflict, where NATO would participate. Except situation with Ukraine.
-Because if suddenly, a big serious military conflict will be ignited in Ukraine, then maybe partially, NATO, maybe with their MAF, their Polish friends, private military companies, etcetera, might enter it.
-But again, nobody wants a big war. This is totally obvious.
-But purely theoretically, can we resist NATO, with our today's weaponary and army? How would you evalulate? s-You know, purely theoretically, NATO is not crazy enough, to consider another attempt of 'campaign to the east'.
-It is out of the question. Trully out of the question. The west tries to fense off of us with all the same Iron Curtain.
-That is, it has many vulnerable bugs, so to speak. First of all - it's Baltic states.
-Baltics have a bunch of Russians, who nobody wants to assimilate. Of course they consider them dangerous towards themselves.
-But these republics have already been accepted into NATO, and they now have to be protected.
-And accordingly, now, appears 'the big Polish daddy', who says: 'Now I'm gonna be the governor here', on this background.
-And again, a bunch of political problems are being solved here, related to distributing the roles among these 'newly came Europeans'.
-I will repeat, that the Polish are very actively trying to label themselves, saying, that we are going to play the main role on this eastern front.
-But I don't see any large scale war ahead of us. All the more so, I will repeat this again,
-That the main thing, which helped us jump over it, is our urgent rearnament.
s-Nobody expected this. That is, basically... -But the program is until 2020, if I'm not mistaken.
-The program is until 2020, but already today, it reached such level, when it's out of the question.
-And here, I must talk about the main key thing, since we started about this. To calm our listeners down about why there will be no war.
-Without a doubt, as you correctly noticed - our nuclear arsenal. But you didn't mentioned another 1 thing.
-In Soviet times, and still, there are only 3 ways of use of nuclear weapons.
-These are: Preemptive strike, counter strike, and retaliatory strike.
-Soviet Union have never claimed to perform a preemptive strike.
-All the more so, we, as a country, were always stating, that we will never use nuclear weapons first.
-By the way, Americans were always saying, that they are ready to use it.
-But nevertheless, we had created reaction system in such way, when we were always capable to launch our missiles in return.
-The so called 'Dead Hand' principle. A dead country sends the missiles and the aggressor still gets it.
-In this case in particular, it's a little different. 'Dead Hand' is a retaliatory strike.
-And the whole American AMD, which they started to build about 20 years ago, and still spending huge amounts of money, it was intended to counter our 'Dead Hand'.
-Meaning: Russian is decaying, with its nuclear arsenal, and by 2020 it has maximum of 400-500 missiles, and after their preemtive strike on us, only 100-150 missiles remains, which their AMD would be able to easily shoot down.
-But it turned out, that the things are not like this anymore. That is, we have preserved our potential, and in addition, we upgraded it to the level of a counter strike.
-And this totally depreciates all the talks about strike on Russia. Just simply depreciates.
-Tell us, as a military expert, how would you evaluate our methods and strategy in conducting warfare? Judging by latest conflicts.
-That is, if we would talk about... One second... While NATO warfare strategy is to hold air superiority over enemy territory,
-Destruction certain military or important civil targets from the air... -And putting their puppets. -...And rapid ground operation.
-We were acting in the same way in Georgia. But Georgia had very weak AA, and MAF. And in Syria our opponents had almost nothing at all.
-So how are we fighting? s-You know... I'm trying to think how to put it better, so there will be no perfectionism...
-In my opinion, we have the highest level of combat experience in the world, at the present moment.
-Because last time Americans fought a war was in Iraq, in 2002.
-In addition, they fought against in advance weakened enemy.
-The tricks they used there - are all heritage of the 1990's.
s-After this, we went through a bunch of local conflicts. All the more so, we indeed... -You mean Caucasus?
s-Caucasus, yes. Our Caucasus. -Chechnya. -Transnistria. s-Besides this...
-Chechnya more likely. s-Chechnya. We were in Tajikistan. We, one way or another, were engaged in Transnistria. I'm leading to this.
-In addition to this, by this time, we have gained huge experience in sort of 'indirect activities'. And this is our 'know how'.
-Why are they all talking about a 'hybrid war', which Russia is conducting?
-That is, that exact experience, when we were buried in our civil wars across the perimeter, it is now started to be used for defending our national interests.
-That is, if before we were defending ourselves there, fighting against Wahhabis in Tajikistan, not ourselves, but we were helping.
-We helped to defend Transnistria. Again, not ourselves, but we helped. And I can go on forever.
-But today, we are starting to use it as our 'long arm'. And here appears the most interesting 'know how', about which we can now talk. So you would understand our level.
-In only 3 months, we managed, on a totally empty grounds, from the people, who had no combat experience whatsoever, with the help of our advisors and volunteers,
-Managed to form 2 fully combat ready units, which in literally next 2 months, without even finishing their formation yet, smashed a totally normal army, which was preparing for war for the past 6 months, by that moment.
-You mean Donbass. s-I do mean Donbass.
-I will repeat, that for people, who trully evaluate combat readiness of Russian army, it was real shock.
-I have this friend of mine, unfortunately I'm not very good with foreign languages, and so he closely follows western professional military magazines, including USA.
-And they are constantly talking about what Russians managed to do in Donbass.
-In addition, again, with no direct intervention.
-When they say: 'Tanks came, 'Green People', divisions of Buryats, Buryat divisions...' All this is total rubbish.
-Sakhalin cavalry, in addition. s-Yes. In reality, there were advisors.
s-And the level of our competence tells us about how we could create on an empty space, in 2 months, a very powerful... -But still where are we more powerful? In the air or on the ground? Under water?
-You know, there is no such thing. You must understand correctly, that a war us not even a game of chess.
-You know, one my good friend, who is good with expressions, when he was asked what is a combat, he strangely answered: 'It's like digging a regular pit'.
-When you are given an order to dig a pit 2 meter long, and when you start digging it, you suddenly notice, that some person is filling it back.
-And then, it's either you manage to dig it, or he manages to fill it. This is war.
-Here, everything is always relative. In some things we are very far ahead. In some things we are only catching up. In some things we are lagging behind.
-But, you understand, that there is the fundamental truth to the war: People are fighting, not machinery.
-And ones must understand, that you not always must chase the most advanced machinery and weaponary.
-A simple example. Vietnamese, who had decent weaponary, and they were not advanced, managed to defeat the most advanced army - American army.
-And in this case, again, there is no point for us to enter this heavy military... Modernization, yes. Just for the sake of modernization.
-That is, we don't need to catch up to Americans everywhere. We simply don't have enough money for it.
-And this is endeed another very serious question.
-That is - we must create such machinery and weaponary, which would be up to date for the next 20 years.
-Because it will be extremely difficult to find another 3-4 trillion rubles (currently about 50-65 billion USD) to rearm ourselves.
-So then, as strange as it sounds, the whole Chechen conflict was beneficial for our armed forces. s-Of course. Of course.
-And now, the thing our civilian population most worried about, is that our generals are preparing for the passed war.
-For position warfare, trenches, and the rest nonesense, like calling for anyone who is capable of holding a weapon to volunteer, etcetera.
-That is, in reality, combat training of our army is on quite high positions, right?
-Well, look, a simple example - the war 08/08/08. It was conducted during Serdyukov's times.
-Although he didn't command it in any way, didn't controlled it. He was nowhere to be found for a while, at start.
-Maybe it was for the best. s-Maybe it was, yes. Because I know very well the general, who defeated that Georgian army.
-He defeated them with basically 2 battalions.
-Because he realized, that there is going to be a war, despite what was coming in from Moscow from Serdyukov, but this is long story, and I'm not going to tire our listeners.
-Anyway, with only 2 battalions and tactical units, he managed to enter South Ossetia in time, and further, so to speak, he 'spinned the head' of the whole Georgian grouping.
-Because, after diving all this into small squads, every 1-1,5 hours he was changing positions, and performing strikes in new places every time,
-So in the end, Georgians simply didn't know how many Russian forces they were dealing with.
-As the final result, they lost their momentum, lost their initiative, and by the end of day 2, when from 'over the mountain' the big Russian army came,
-Basically everything was already predetermined.
s-This is the exact highest level of the same modern warfare. -In military tactics. I understand. s-Yes, well, I'll just exaplain.
-2 battalions - it was approximately 700-800 people. Only.
-And only the city of Tskhinvali was attacked, only in heading echelon, by around 4.500 troops.
-It means, that 2 Georgian brigades were going in.
-And with these forces he managed to intertwine all this, spin around, stop, force them to entrench.
-For military men, this is really, um, kind of, representation.
-For textbooks. I understand. s-Yes. You know, like saying how fast a person ran 100 meters.
-But tell us, why didn't we go further? Why did we stopped where we stopped? s-You know, it was indeed a very correct decision.
-Because it was totally obvious, for me at least, as a military expert, and I think anyone will confirm this,
-Is that - there is no point to go to a land, where you are not expected. This is implied by default.
-Again, why Donbass military didn't advanced to Kiev? Because there is no point in going somewhere you are not expected.
-You should liberate your people, and fixate the result.
-And the examples of Napoleon and Hitler only remained in our memories. s-Yes, but not only. We have plenty examples of our own.
-And here, the necessary conclusions have already been made.
-There are essential things, like when there is a major threat, and you need to obliderate the enemy. But it's not certain, that you need to 'leave your boot' there.
-Interesting. Friends, we are continuing our channel 'Meadiametrics', show 'Inform Bureau'. And we are the hosts of the show.
-And as our guest we have Vladislav Shurygin, main editor's of 'Tomorrow' newspaper assistant, and one of the most informed political experts... Military experts rather, excuse me.
-It's very interesting for me to listen to you. Maybe I'm a litte hazy on the subject matter. You know what other question I'd like to ask you?
-Regarding info wars. As a publisher, you must be 'keeping your hand on the pusle' more than anyone, so to speak.
s-Even my diploma says: 'Military and political journalism'. -And you youself participated in military conflicts.
-You are one of those officers of info wars. s-Yes. -It's like I see you. But do you feel as a special forces fighter? Or a paratrooper of an info war.
s-Oh, don't be silly... I mostly feel like... A marshall of info war. -Oh, it's like that. It's nice.
-There is a good joke about it. When at some point in Vietnam war, Americans needed to destroy some Vietnamese bridge, and they couldn't get close enough.
-And finally, some assaulter manages to push through, on a 'Skyhawk'.
-He reports to his people on the radio: 'I see the target'. He was told: 'John, consider yourself a captain'.
-But the night before, a Soviet AA division was deployed there, and the guy, that was sitting behind the controls, he knew English very well.
-He said: 'You might as well consider youself a marshall'. And pushed the button.
-Excellent. Then we will try to ask you a few interesting questions to a marshall of info wars. And a short pre-history of the question first.
-Let us remember events in Ukraine in 2013-2014. The beginning of the active phase of this info war, on the background of this Ukrainian conflict.
-Nobody represented our side on this battlefield. Some channel that was financed by US embassy, and many other international funds.
-They were funding MSM on the territory of Ukraine. Our side was not represented by any TV channel.
-There was trust in Ukrainian oligarchs, and some kind of agreements with them.
-But a Ukrainian oligarch is some kind of, I won't be afraid to say it, creature. Or a meme. You can make deals with him, but he can betray you at any moment.
-And there were Russian channels, which broadcasted in Ukraine, but this is a totally different story, because Russian channels are targeted towards Russian audience in particular.
-For Ukrainian audience it's not very understandable. And it's understandable why.
-Why our side didn't use any information weapons? Besides our civilian militia in Facebook, or the so called 'Couch Forces'.
-As a specialist on info wars, first question: Why weren't we ready for this war?
s-Well... -Or were we? Maybe we don't know everything.
-Let's put it this way, if I am to talk as a marshall, then I will say, that in this war we suffered a devastating defeat.
-Why? Because we completely lost the capability to influence the Ukrainian citizen. At the present moment. And this is the reality.
-This is the result of this war. Why?
-Because, for our establishment, for 25 years, Ukraine was some faraway periphery.
-You must understand, that Crimea came to us not 'thanks to', but 'in spite of'. Once again. You understand?
s-That is, these were processes, where we were jumping on a moving train. -We had other worries.
-We can simply look at who were the ambassadors all these years, and you will realize what kind of policies we had regarding Ukraine.
s-And so, no money were invested anywhere... -But this is not the remaining principle. It's the one that further.
-Ukraine was, and I know this subject very well, because I was engaged in affairs in Ukraine for a while, I was born in Crimea, I graduated in Lvov,
-And Ukraine for me was always kind of... The problem always was that Ukraine was always some kind of very convenient 'grey zone'. And not only for Ukrainian oligarchs.
s-Why nobody ever did anything? Because Ukraine was the zone, where money disappeared. And they were disappearing... -With all the participants.
-Yes. You know, there is this one little detail, which nobody ever wrote or talked about. It slipped here and there, but on the periphery.
-It always turned out, that if you look at oil supply reports, or gas supply reports on gas deliveries to Ukraine,
-Then you would see, that from the Ukrainian side was always paid for 15%-20% more gas, than we supplied them. You see?
-And It was always this strange paradox. Everyone thought, that Ukraine is not gonna go anywhere.
-They thought: 'Crocky Ukies sitting there, always depending on us. Not gonna go anywhere.
-And when the first bell ring sounded, in 2004 yes, then certain decisions started to be made here.
-People who were responsible were put under pressure, or put aside. But this didn't teach anyone of anything.
-And let's talk about the present moment. At the present moment, we don't have a single radio station there, not a single TV channel.
s-We don't have a single newspaper, which would work today in Ukraine. -But it is possible to do it?
-Just put a radio station at Rostov near border, with a good range.
-Vladislav, I have a very interesting question. You are on the informational field, and you speak on TV.
-You probably have mentioned this subject in one of your speeches.
-Why are our information forces exist only as some kind of partizans? You know, in Facebook, or in 'Live Journal', where all the arguing is taking place.
-Why isn't the war for people's minds taking place? Because info war is taking place in people's minds. s-Absolutely correct.
s-I think, that the answer is obvious. -Then why?
-To my greatest regret, our establishment is divided.
-It has been divided for a while, divided very seriously. They are fighting their own war. A war in the heavens, like they say.
-They don't have time for us. s-Not that, but the people, who carry their governmental intellection, and who are thinking about what's going to happen tomorrow,
-There are very few of such people on top.
-And there are many people, who are very closely connected to all this world's oligarchic system.
s-And who are basically not interested in... -With yahts on coasts of Nice. Understandable.
-And in this case, they simply don't need any of this. And this war between...
-Well, we don't need to go too far. Kudrin said about a week ago: 'If we want to restore our economy, we should reduce the heat of this confrontation'.
-In other words - give up our sovereignty. s-Yes, yes.
-And any logic person would want to ask the question: How?
-That is, someone really wants to convince us, that the west is gonna go for it, the west will forgive, and the west will accept.
-But this is absolute delirium, you see? These people know what they need to say.
-Well, look, 'Russia Today' appeared, or RT like it's called. But it is now some kind of bogey, which is seen aggresively and negatively, including on the territory of Ukraine.
-Second, it is not so much targets Ukraine, as it does English speaking audience. I mean as a channel.
-It works well, but... s-There is 1 interesting thing - we work well in Engand, fine.
-But in the end of this 'Arab Spring', Arabic editorial office was completely shut down.
s-And 'Russia Today', which had much more solid positions in Arabic world, because people were watching it... -I'd like you to elaborate the words 'shut down'.
s-Well, basically it was reduced by 5 or 6 times. Their editorial office. -But why?
s-Well, this is not the question you ask me. You ask this the management. -Well, it's understandable. It's just the fact.
-The question is: How are we managing to lose these big battles?
-I'll say it once again: Where our military is - everything is OK.
-But as soon as the business comes to information frontline, all these miracles are starting.
-And they are easy to explain, for me.
-Because when I look at the names of the people who are resposible for information policy in our country, I realize, that these people don't need anything besides their little cubicle.
-The important thing is to send a report. We will report to the president, that we did it, and then it might as well go down the drain.
-Yes. Difficult situation. Vladislav, we literally have 3 minuntes left. But we would like to hear some positive words.
-From you, as a specialist. Including on info wars. What awaits us in the future?
-Because more wars are waiting for us it seems. And it is taking place, as we speak, one way or another.
-You know, right now, the life itself forces us to make decisions, that lead to positive results, including info wars.
-This can be seen judging by all the statements coming, including the ones from Kremlin.
-It can be seen by the ideology, which is being established as the state's ideology.
-You know, the situation today became so rough, that it is now impossible to ballance between ours and theirs.
-This means, that everyone have already realized, that nobody is going to forgive us, it's obvious for everyone, that nobody is going to give anything up for us,
-And it's obvious for everyone, that we will have to prove to everyone for quite a long time head, that we are going to survive.
-And for this purpose, nothing else remains, but to try to unite the population, to fight for each mind, like you said.
-Because without you simply can't do without it. And indeed, so to speak, non-stop war.
-It's just, you know, it seems that, info war is kind of hurtless.
-Shells aren't flying. But people are still getting killed in an info war. Like Oles Buzina, for example.
-It's a characteristic example of one of officers in info war, who was on our side. He was simply shot near his apartment building.
-People are also dying, but then, suddenly, everything ends with a crowd of people taking led pipes in their hands, smashing windows, enters apartments...
-We have lost this kind of war already once - in 1991.
-Back then, we were convinced, that we needed to change, we need a different country, and this new country will make everyone happy.
s-And without a single shot, Soviet army remained inactive, not a single tank came out, but everyone voted, and... -Yes, it was clearly a victoy in an info war.
-In minds. -In former republics started so many wars, so I wouldn't say, that it was bloodless. s-We paid a very terrible price for losing our country.
-Yes, well, in reality, this is indeed... s-And if we talk on optimistic point of view, it was sort of a vaccination.
-Note, that none of the memes, that worked in the 1990's works now.
-Nobody can now be attracted by salami, nobody can now be convinced, that America=good, and you can sell your Motherland for chewing gum and jeans.
-It means that now, as strange as it sounds, our youths, I know this, because I often have to deliver lectures, to go to meetings,
-Today, our youths are much more politically educated, than even our generation.
-Because our generation, which lost the Union, which lost their country, which back then was demoralized, or on the opposite - believed in something and started to 'chase the carrot',
-And so it carries in itself this loser gene. But our youths don't have it.
-Sometimes we don't even understand this aggressiveness, ultra patriotism, and sometimes it's even cringy.
-But this is related to the fact, that they are not defeated inside of themselves. They didn't lose their history.
-And because of this I am this optimistic.
-Well then, thank you for this. -If our youths are so good, then things are not that bad. -Well, I hope we will also have our chance to fight.
-Vladislav, thank you very much for coming to us today. It was a very interesting conversation.
-Dear friends, this was 'Inform Bureau' show, on the radio station 'Mediametrics', with us as hosts.
-We had Vladislav Shurygin as our guest. Main editor's of 'Tomorrow' newspaper assistant, military publisher.
-Thank you very much, we heard so much interesting today. s-Thank you. -Come again. -Come again. All the best.
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