Democrats' California conundrum could cost them the House
Few Democrats anywhere present themselves as more inveterate opponents of Donald Trump than California Lt.
Gov.
Gavin Newsom, the clear front-runner for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in next weeks primary.
And yet few Democrats anywhere are facing more pointed accusations than Newsom of pursuing a strategy that could help Trump achieve his highest political goal in 2018: maintaining Republican control of the US House.
The charge against Newsom, which his camp forcefully rejects, undercores how profoundly the dynamics of Californias unusual top-two primary system distort the typical calculations for candidates and the two major parties.
One week before the June 5 vote, California Republicans face the near-certainty of failing to advance a candidate to the general election for US Senate, and the risk, though fading, of failing to place a candidate on the November ballot for Governor.
Democrats, meanwhile, are terrified that they will be shut out next week in one or more Republican-held US House districts, particularly in suburban Orange County.
Party strategists see winning these seats as key steps in their path back to majority control.
The two anxieties collided when Newsom ran an ad earlier this month effectively bolstering the leading Republican gubernatorial candidate John Cox.
By promoting Cox, Newsom reduced the odds that he would face another Democrat in November and increased his own chances of victory.
But he faced complaints that he was threatening Democratic hopes of recapturing the US House because a Republican in the governors race would give California GOP voters more reason to turn out this fall and thus benefit their candidates for the House.
There are all kinds of unintended consequences that are coming out now, says Mark Baldassare, president and CEO of the non-partisan Public Policy Institute of California.
An experiment that may have backfired .
Under the new system, approved by California voters in a 2010 ballot proposition, the top two finishers in the primary for each office --from governor to US Senator, and US House to the state legislature-advance to the general election, regardless of party.
The plans supporters initially sold it as a way to promote more moderate candidates, to empower independent voters, and to weaken the hold of the two major parties on the electoral process.
But in fact, the complex geometry of these open contests has encouraged a new peak of partisan maneuvering and manipulation, and forced each party to systematically intervene to try to influence the selection of the other sides nominees.
As a senior adviser to one statewide California candidate put it: It is constant three dimensional chess you are playing here..
Though the state has run three previous elections under the top-two rule, this is the first contest that is fully pressure-testing the system.
In 2014, the one previous governors race conducted under these rules, incumbent Democrat Jerry Brown cruised to re-election.
And in the past three elections, Democrats inexplicably failed to mount serious bids against House Republicans in several districts that were trending away from the GOP.
But this year, the open governors seat has drawn four serious Democratic candidates and two Republicans.
In the House, after years of torpor, Democrats are fielding a flood of candidates in five Republican-held House seats around Los Angeles that Hillary Clinton carried against Trump in 2016.
Those seats, as well as two other Republican-held seats in the agricultural Central Valley that Clinton carried, are vital to Democratic hopes of recapturing the overall House majority.
Under this heightened pressure, the top-two system has unquestionably sprung some leaks.
A local failure could have national consequences .
Most attention has focused on the Democratic dilemma in Orange County.
The Democrats began this year with high hopes in the four seats that Clinton carried across that steadily-diversifying county.
But they now face the real risk that Republicans will claim both of the top spots and shut out Democrats for November in three of them.
In descending order of threat, Democrats are confronting that possibility in the seat held by Rep.
Dana Rohrabacher and the districts being vacated by retiring Republicans Ed Royce and Darrell Issa.
(Because there are no meaningful Republican challengers to GOP incumbents Mimi Walters in Orange County and Steve Knight north of Los Angeles, Democrats dont face that risk in those Clinton-won seats.).
In all three of the seats where Democrats face a potential shutout, Republicans have candidates with much stronger resumes in elected office, from former state Assembly member Young Kim and Orange County Board of Supervisors member Shawn Nelson in Royces seat; to former State Assembly GOP Leader Scott Baugh, who is challenging Rohrabacher; to former Assembly member Diane Harkey and current member Rocky Chavez in the Issa seat.
None of the leading Democrats contending for any of the seats hold elected office, or began the race with much name identification in their districts -- a remnant of the partys long-time failure to invest in building its support in Orange County.
Thats made it tougher for any one candidate to consolidate support.
This local failure has forced the national Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee into extraordinary exertions to avoid losing these seats to the GOP in June.
The party committee has invested heavily in voter registration and get-out-the-vote efforts to combat the traditionally low turnout of several key Democratic constituencies during the June primaries.
It has successfully leaned on several lower-tier Democratic candidates to drop out, hoping to consolidate the Democratic vote.
Most dramatically, it has invested $3.5 million into an array of television and radio ads meant to lift a Democrat into the top two.
Thats included negative ads trying to weaken Republican candidates in each race (principally Baugh, Nelson and Chavez).
More controversially, the DCCC has also tried to lift one Democrat from the field by running ads for Gil Cisneros, a lottery winner and philanthropist in the Royce seat, and Harley Rouda, an attorney and entrepreneur in the Rohrabacher district.
And yet even after all this work, Democrats are still biting their nails.
The Democrats are especially on edge about the Rohrabacher seat, where the incumbents weakness is leaving a large number of GOP-leaning votes available to Baugh.
These are all within the margin of error, and thats what is so scary, said Democratic consultant Dave Jacobson, who is advising candidates in the Royce and Rohrabacher seats.
The maneuvering in the governors race is adding to Democratic anxiety and uncertainty.
It has raised the possibility that even if Democrats survive next weeks challenge and place a candidate onto the general election ballot, the Republican odds of holding the Orange County anyway seats may be rising. .
Grumbling about Newsoms maneuvers .
Newsom triggered the controversy earlier this month when he ran his ad criticizing Cox, an underfunded San Diego business executive who lost several races for office while living in Illinois, for being too close to Trump and too opposed to gun control.
Thats the sort of message viewers might expect from Newsom, a liberal Democrat, in the general election.
But airing during the primary, the ad, in effect, came with a big wink: by attacking Cox from the left, Newsom was actually bolstering his credentials with Republican voters and increasing the chances that Cox would finish second next week ahead of any Democrat in the race.
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